Chances of getting into Ivy med school from a lower ranked undergrad?

What are the chances of getting into an Ivy league/ top tier med school (UCs and other higher ranked med schools included) from a smaller, lesser known, lower ranked university? (I will be in their Honors college and amongst the top of their class.)

I’ve received mixed reviews on whether or not the college you do your undergraduate degree from matters. Most people say only your GPA and your MCAT score matters, but I’ve also heard that for the top medical schools, you need to go to a good school for your undergrad. So, it’ll be great if someone could shed some light on this?

Med schools usually list colleges from where their students come. You can also check from the college you plan to attend, where their students were able to get in (not necessarily attend).

I don’t know how many colleges keep records of acceptances to be honest.

Don’t forget that students are not randomly assigned to colleges. If you concentrate most of the smartest students at 20 institutions, where do you think most medical students will come from?

How much smaller, lower ranked, and less known are we talking? For the record, on my MSTP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_Scientist_Training_Program) interview trail, I met a kid from Lake Forest (which I of course initially thought he meant Wake Forest because I had never heard of Lake Forest) who applied to something like 15 programs, got interviews at 14 of them and accepted to 12 (numbers might be off since this was in 09-10, but I distinctly remembered that he dominated his application cycle, and had results that I or anyone I knew wasn’t even remotely close to)

There is an MD candidate this cycle with a 527 (one point off) and a 4.0 from a state school who supposedly is getting admitted to most places and one top 5 school gave him a full tuition scholarship.

If a school does not keep any records for admitted students or where they are going at least for the last couple of years, then they probably have no premed advising at all. That should be a basic requirement.

Do the institutions receive the info directly from AAMC? If so, then yeah, they probably all have acceptance data. I certainly don’t recall being asked to submit a list of my application results from each school, only where I was matriculating and don’t recall ever looking at results data other than matriculations. Then again, I’m MD/PhD so maybe the school did have the data for MD only and kids used it (The MD/PhD advising was certainly subpar at Brown).