Chances of Transferring While On Disciplinary Probation?

So, I recently got into a little trouble at my current institution: I was found with alcohol in my dorm room and I am under 21. I am being put on disciplinary probation by my school. Normally, this wouldn’t bother me too much (yes it was stupid to have alcohol, I know its against the law and university policy, that being said, I’m a 19 year old college student) but I am currently applying to transfer out of this school and into a new one. I know on the Common App, it asks if I am in good standing at my current school, which would be a ‘no’ after this mistake (I’m actually not sure if this decision was reached before I sent out my applications though, so it may not even be on there). If that is the case however, and I am trying to transfer while on disciplinary probation, how much of a factor would that weigh into my chances? To give a little more insight, I’ve applied to highly selective schools like Columbia, Vanderbilt and Penn (and also Alabama, I’ve already gotten in there). This is my first offense and I have a reasonably high GPA (3.7), am on the Dean’s List, and am active in a number of clubs on my school’s campus.

How did your situation end up going?