***Class of 2014 NMSF Qualifying scores***

<p>215 looks good for Ohio. The cutoff was 214 last year (a high year), and 212 the year before. I haven’t looked at the state summaries, but based just on the cutoff history, I’d say he’s probably ok.</p>

<p>How about 210 in kentucky?</p>

<p>KY went from 212 two years ago to 208 last year, so 210 is possible. In most states we are thinking that this year’s cutoff will be closer to last year’s than to two years ago’s. But KY is a small state which makes its cutoffs more volatile than the average state. Go back a page or two and find the description of what to look for in the state statistics for the past 3 years if you want to try to narrow it down more.</p>

<p>Arizona’s percentages look much like 2 years ago, when the cutoff was 213, and they match up pretty closely with the national numbers as they did then, as well. However, the overall number of students jumped up, as did the number of students in each category. Odd. Any thoughts? I’m hoping my daughter is safe at 217.</p>

<p>Keep in mind that the cutoff is designed to recognize a fixed <em>number</em> of semifinalists, not a fixed percentage of the participants. If there are more students showing up in the top two brackets, that probably indicates a rise in the cutoff, unless the number of HS grads has gone up by a corresponding amount in whichever year they use to figure out the states’ shares of the pool.</p>

<p>However, with cutoffs of 213 and 212 for the prior two years, she should be quite safe at 217.</p>

<p>Anyone wanna hypothesize for Hawaii? It seems like there is a small rise in the percentage of students in the 75-80 range in all sections, in addition to a ~500 student decrease. Considering that there are roughly 65-70 semifinalists from HI each year and that the amount of top scorers seems higher than last year, I’m a little curious on how this will play out. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t be surprised if the cutoff score were over 220, which is absurdly high for a state with such lousy public education. (Excuse the bad grammar. It’s really late and I am a product of the said public education.)</p>

<p>I’m new to this, but have never seen Hawaii cut off at 220. Last year Hawaii was low at 211, with highest in recent years at 216. It’s not likely that high scorers were 75-80 in all three sections. National 2012 PSAT report shows 99% starts at 211, which sounds more like Hawaii. Agree with your statement that Hawaii lacks in Public ED. The fact that only 7000 Juniors take the test here says a lot.</p>

<p>Can anyone estimate Tennessee’s cutoff for this year?
2012 Stats
CR 75-80 = 1.2% 70-74 = 3.8%
M 75-80 = 1.2% 70-74 = 2.2%
W 75-80 = 1.6% 70-74 = 3.1%</p>

<p>2011 Stats (210 cutoff)
CR 75-80 = 0.8% 70-74 = 2.7%
M 75-80 = 1.0% 70-74 = 3.2%
W 75-80 = 1.4% 70-74 = 1.7%</p>

<p>2010 Stats (214 cutoff)
CR 75-80 = 1.4% 70-74 = 2.8%
M 75-80 = 1.8% 70-74 = 2.8%
W 75-80 = 1.7% 70-74 = 3.2%</p>

<p>I have a score of 213 and I am really nervous the cutoff will be 214.</p>

<p>Thank you Mathmomvt, this year state summary showing much higher prcentage in 75-80 and 70-74 than last year, not as higher as 2 yrs ago but close, so 210 is really in danger.</p>

<p>Chunzi, don’t look so much at the percentages of students in those ranges as the raw numbers. But yeah, no matter how much analysis you do, 210 is going to remain iffy.</p>

<p>Illinois ?</p>

<p>Very nervous with a 215. (last year was 213).</p>

<p>Thank-you in advance.</p>

<p>Juniors: If you want folks here to try to help you predict a cutoff, do the legwork and list in your message the cutoffs for the past 2 years in your state, and give the links for this year’s and the past two years’ state summaries.</p>

<p>Ignore this post.
…just adding this thread to my recents.</p>

<p>214 in Illinois…even more nervous.</p>

<p>Oh and I have done all the legwork on Illinois. It is inconclusive but definitely points to a higher cutoff than last year’s 213. Here’s hoping lots of kids graduated from high school in Illinois last year!</p>

<p>How many kids get perfects each year? Is it a big deal? My school didn’t seem to care. I was kind of surprised considering how much neighboring districts praise kids when they get perfects on the SAT/ACT.</p>

<p>212 for arizona???</p>

<p>Florida. I earned a 214. I hope the cutoff doesn’t go up from last year’s 210.</p>

<p>I realize there is no magic formula for this…but, is the consensus crystal-ball-method based on adding up total number of students in the 75-80 range for each of the 3 test sections & comparing that total to previous years?</p>

<p>I think the consensus crystal-ball-method involves looking at the 70-75 range also.</p>