<p>Now…if only we could pack up our wide spread 10-16"+ band of snow, and send it to ProcrastiDad! In melted form of course! Three day volleyball weekend for us, snow or no snow. The weather only weeds out the weak.</p>
<p>I feel a certain loyalty to this thread, but note that there are two overlapping CC threads going re cutoff score predicitions. While we wait, I thought it might be fun to make a prediction based on virtually no data. Who’s in for their State? So, based on anecdotes, the National summary of Juniors’ performance on the Oct 2013 test and sheer speculation, I predict that California cutoff will go down from 223 to 222. No 221. No, 222. Well, down anyway.</p>
<p>What’s the other thread? I’m not sure I’m on that one. I think PA will go down, but can’t decide between 215 and 216.</p>
<p>February 11
This is my first post!
Like most of you, I like to crunch the numbers.
I looked at the Junior results from '05 (a high cutoff year for many states) through '13 (no state data yet, only highlights).
College board posts the average scores on the summary page. I compared the sum of the average CR, M & W for each year to the cutoff scores for Colorado (our home state).
There seems to be some relationship to the average score rising and falling and the state cut off score for CO. Not a perfect up and down but possibly gives a trend?
2013 141.9 ???
Here are the numbers: Test taken: 2012 average score: 142.8 CO cutoff: 215 (for the class of 2014)
2011 141.5 212
2010 141.6 215
2009 140.9 212
2008 141.3 213
2007 140.8 213
2006 142.0 213
2005 146.0 216</p>
<p>Perhaps you would like to try these numbers out for your state and see if you also see some trends.
I would love to hear what you think of this number fun. </p>
<p>I posted this on another thread but am hoping someone else will look at the numbers above and compare to the movement in their state’s cutoff scores.<br>
The first number is the year of the test, the second number is the sum of the average CR, M & W (from college board data page (<a href=“SAT Suite of Assessments – Reports | College Board”>http://research.collegeboard.org/programs/psat/data/cb-jr</a>), the third number is Colorado’s cutoff score for the year of graduation (for the students who took the exam 18months before).</p>
<p>DS got a qualifying SAT score on the Jan test, so now we just wait. Shoot, if his PSAT Math score had been as decent as his SAT Math score, he would not be on the bubble for our state. But that’s OK & he may be done w/testing at this point. Thanks to the poster who called CB about the state summaries. Once KS is posted, I will rely on DH to look at the data…so DS will have to <em>go ask dad</em> to help him w/that.</p>
<p>Agreed that some of us are getting slap-happy as we wait… 
</p>
<p>I had seen the same trend for Texas that numbersfun noted. The yearly summaries show whether each subject had an increase or decrease in the mean score. If I add up the CHANGE in the national mean scores for CR, M and W, it generally appears that a net increase (or a positive number) results in an increase or no change in the cutoff score, while a net decrease (or negative number) results in a decrease or no change in the cutoff score. It’s been a while since I looked at it, but I recall most importantly that a net decrease did NOT result in a cutoff score increase for Texas. This year there is a net decrease (-0.9). Sounds like a small decrease, but it is actually a pretty significant decrease compared to other years. SInce my son tied last year’s record tying high, that’s all he needs. One other thing I noticed, and I may have posted this a while back, is that the numbers were squirrelly when one subject, either CR or M or W, had an unusual number of students (many more or many fewer than usual) in the 75-80 percentile range. So, when the state data comes out, if I see that there are way more students in the 75-80 percentile range in one subject area than in other years, that will make me think that scores might not drop as much as the mean would indicate. If, however, in one subject area, I notice that way fewer students than usual are in the 75-80 percentile range in one particular subject, that is a good sign for the Texas cutoff going down. Anyone else see this trend in your state?</p>
<p>Do I have a chance at National Merit if I got 218 in Texas? I am really worried because I am on the borderline. </p>
<p>@fairyfantasy, you do have a chance! None of us will know until September, but typically Texas goes up then down then up then down - if it follows the trend, this year should go down a bit. The averages are also down this year, and that is a good sign. 219 was the all-time high in 2010 and 2012, so you only need a drop of 1 point! Sometime this month, we are expecting that College Board will post info for the individual states. Then lots of us will look at the data and make our best guesses! So check back and see what people are predicting. Some years the CC folks are pretty accurate!</p>
<p>@Barfly, thanks for the info. I will check back here later. I sure hope I can become a semi-finalist if not a finalist. </p>
<p>@fairyfantasy, just be sure to get the required SAT score that you will need to advance from semi-finalist to finalist. In the past, the required SAT score has been 1960, but it is calculated differently. The essay doesn’t count. Instead, you multiply your multiple choice writing score by 10 and add that in. Unless you have a very high or low essay score, it comes out about the same. If you don’t have that 1960 yet, you have plenty of time to retake the SAT!</p>
<p>@Barfly I got 2290 on my Jan score from last month so hopefully I can just use that.</p>
<p>@fairyfantasy, great SAT score! You can use that one! Good luck! My son has a 219 in Texas so we are crossing our fingers with you!</p>
<p>National Merit Corp finally put out their 2013 report. Page 23 shows the number of semifinalists and total entrants by state and the country for Juniors who then graduated 18 months later in 2013. Texas has the highest number of program entrants in the country. I also have the data from the same page for 2012. I haven’t found a source for previous years because NMSC does not seem to archive the reports on their website and I haven’t found the prior year reports elsewhere.<br>
NMSC does say that state semifinalist numbers are proportional to the state’s percentage of the national total of graduating seniors. For 2013 there were 16,272 semifinalists out of a total of 3.1million graduates (<a href=“Graduation Rate Hits Record High For High School Students: Government Report | HuffPost Teen”>HuffPost - Breaking News, U.S. and World News | HuffPost) for a national rate of .525%. If we can get a good estimate of the expected number of graduates for 2015 for both the USA and each state and we know they like to keep the NMSFs to about 16K, you can estimate the number of NMSFs for your state. Then back out and figure out the percentile rank that equals about that number of students for your state. It keeps getting more difficult because the college board does not give out state information by total score, only by subtests. Or you could just say - Texas is growing (which means the # of graduates are growing), Rhode Island is not, Texas will get a bit more NMSF next year than last (because they will have a higher percentage of total graduates). Then look at those same college board state summary reports (when they finally come out) and try to figure out the percentile rank that locks in that number of entrants.
All of this to entertain ourselves until the cutoff scores come out in September!</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.nationalmerit.org/annual_report.pdf”>http://www.nationalmerit.org/annual_report.pdf</a></p>
<p>This link gives the number of National Merit Semifinalists per state for the class of 2013. See page 25 of the report. The numbers don’t change much from year to year.</p>
<p>Sorry - page 23 like @numbersfun said. :-S </p>
<p>True, the number of NMFS don’t change much for most states- but,sometimes they do. Texas picked up 111 more NMSF in 2013, more than the entire increase of national NMSF of 16178 in 2012 to 16276 in 2013 (increase of 98). The cutoff score for 2013 for Texas did decrease from 2012, as was true for most states. Then cutoff scores up again in 2014.
I am betting with many of you that cutoff scores will mostly go down this year. I am betting this for 3 reasons, #1: anecdotal reviews that 2013 test was harder than 2012 test. # 2: I don’t believe that the curve is perfect from year to year (especially at the top percentiles). We would not have as much variability in state cutoff scores as we have seen if the curve was perfect. Commended scores move less each year within a tighter band and encompass a much larger number of entrants, which implies more confidence in the curve at lower percentiles and less variability in results of the entire cohort. Commended scores do move similarly to cutoff scores, up in up years, and down in down years, so back to comment #1 above,and #3 below. Each state is composed of hundreds of school districts and all districts would have to make a concerted effort in the same year(s) in order to move the average PSAT scores. We have seen with state testing results that moving state results requires extensive teaching to the test and multi year efforts. A single school has difficulty improving results in a year, let alone a school district, let alone a state, let alone the entire country. #3: And I do not believe that the entire universe of Junior test takers gets smarter or not from year to year. The sum of the average CR,M & CR scores moves somewhat each year but my take is that the test and/or subtests are easier or harder. Since the sum of the average CR, M & CR scores went down from 2012 to 2013 - the cutoff scores should follow (and I realize that NMSFs are not average).
For all of you on the bubble, I’m all in for lower cutoff scores.</p>
<p>sorry, meant to say sum of the average CR, M & W (not CR twice).</p>
<p>CR is always my son’s lowest score, so please don’t double count it! LOL! </p>
<p>Now…where ARE those state summaries? It’s a short month folks, let’s get moving!</p>
<p>Do you think that sometimes the change in number of NMSFs in a state is also partly due to the fact that National Merit Corp can’t really get the exact number of NMSFs they want in each state? They must have to choose the cutoff number that gets them close. Let’s say a state is entitled to 200 NMSFs. There won’t likely be a PSAT cutoff that will give them exactly 200 NMSFs. </p>
<p>In a big state like Texas, moving the cutoff up or down one point may result in a big change in the number of kids who make the cutoff, while in a small state, changing the cutoff by a point may affect only a couple of kids. Vermont has fewer than 30 NMSFs. Moving the Vermont cutoff up or down doesn’t materially affect the overall national numbers. It doesn’t mess up the goal of getting 16,000 NMSFs nationwide. I think the National Merit Corp may just have to play with the individual state cutoffs until they get each state cutoff where it gives them approximately the right number of NMSFs in that state while getting approximately 16,000 nationwide.</p>
<p>One other thing I try to keep in mind is that even if a particular version of the PSAT is harder than usual, that only affects the raw score. College Board then scales the scores so that different versions of the test can be compared. So if the test is harder, and raw scores are lower, then those scores are scaled up more than other years. So my point is that I don’t think that a harder test means lower cutoffs because it all depends on how the test is scaled. </p>
<p>I think if they ever post the state data, it should give us more information to play with! Hope it’s good news! </p>
<p>I’ve read Barfly’s thoughts on the “round table” method before, and that makes perfect sense to me. The next thought, about the possibly harder test is more complex. I’ve personally called this test “harder” myself, but that is based on several kids I know that scored LOWER than last year. So…maybe “harder” isn’t the right word, but quirkier scoring? Or some combination thereof? Granted, my own kid scored 11 points higher than last year, as others surely did as well. Who knows? I still have both tests, maybe I should look more closely at the test questions. I tutor SAT math (and have read LOTS of problems!), and should be able to make a reasonable judgment call at least on that section.</p>
<p>Bring on those darn state summaries already please!!!</p>