<p>201 in TX 
Great, now my week is ruined. I had never anticipated it to be so low.</p>
<p>Can i consider a 220 in AZ to be “safe”?</p>
<p>Swerve22: congratulations on your 220. I assume you looked at the historical data in the first two posts on this thread. 220 in AZ should be safe. We are in AZ also and D got 225 so we are happy.</p>
<p>220… enough for New York??</p>
<p>@Corinthian</p>
<p>Thank you very much! Feels good to not have to worry about my score! Congrats on your D’s score as well!</p>
<p>212 in IL for my son. With this score, he doesn’t stand a chance to make the cut off. Regardless,I am proud of him as his score in sophomore year was 188, this score is 24 more than that with self study which is commendable. He mentioned that two of his friends got perfect 240 and one got 230.(Hope it’s true!) Happy for all these hardworking and talented boys!!</p>
<p>You know, they say life is a series of events that seem important at the time. The PSAT score really doesn’t matter much! And it is a little weird that a 212 in KY will get it but not IL. I guess that is not for us to understand. I really doubt that your sons three friends got those scores but perhaps they did. Are those results plausible given everything else you know about these kids?</p>
<p>According to the CB website, the average Selection Index for students in eleventh grade is about 144 in 2012. The mean score of Selection Index in 2013 is 142.7. I know these are just national level numbers and are not exactly related to each state’s numbers. There are so many factors influencing the cutoff each year. However, couldn’t we expect that the overall cutoff might go down little bit (for example, 1-2 points) based on little decrease in national level mean score?</p>
<p>I wish I had a PDF file of last year (2012) regarding the selection index “percentiles” and mean score. Then, little more reasonable rough guess could be possible. I just can’t find one…</p>
<p>That is a great point, peaceofmind02. I think it would at least indicate that the cutoffs would not INCREASE.</p>
<p>how high do you think California’s cutoff will be?</p>
<p>peaceofmind, your son has a very good chance to make the cut. Since the class of 2014 had such historically high cut scores, things will probably drop back a bit this year. It’s hard to wait, I know. I had one on the bubble with the same score in the same state just graduate and it was very stressful. Luckily for us, S15 scored better, so I can relax this time. I’ll keep my fingers xed for you.</p>
<p>As far as the score not mattering much, that depends on whether there is any chance your child might attend one of the schools that gives big scholarships for NMF. It turns out that test score will save our family $100,000 over 4 yrs already for one child, and we aren’t rich so that is substantial $$ for us. That makes it important to our family. Even our state flagship, which offers very little in the way of merit scholarship $ to non-hooked students, has a $7,000 (unofficial) NMF scholarship for freshmen.</p>
<p>My daughter from Mass: 222 (R 72 M 80 W 70).
Given the high cut-off score in my state. I am scared.</p>
<p>216 in FL. What are my chances for national merit?</p>
<p>The 2014 NMS cutoff scores were at the high end of the 14 years for which we have data since 1999 (21 of the 51 states plus DC saw their highest scores during that entire period that year). You will know more when data for 2015 starts coming in about overall average scores and the Commended cutoff (2014 Commended cutoff was also the highest we have seen since 1999). I think you can reasonably expect that the 2015 NMS cutoff scores will likely be at least a little lower in most states. In the meantime, I thought it might be useful to give everyone the highest, lowest and median cutoff scores in each state for the 14 years for which we have data between 1999 and 2014:
1999-2014: MEAN HIGH LOW
Alabama 210 212 203
Alaska 211 214 210
Arizona 211 214 209
Arkansas 203 206 201
California 218 223 216
Colorado 213 216 210
Connecticut 219 221 217
Delaware 218 220 215
District of Columbia 222 224 221
Florida 213 215 210
Georgia 215 218 211
Hawaii 215 218 211
Idaho 207 211 203
Illinois 215 218 213
Indiana 212 215 207
Iowa 209 210 207
Kansas 213 216 207
Kentucky 210 212 207
Louisiana 209 211 206
Maine 213 215 210
Maryland 221 223 219
Massachusetts 222 224 221
Michigan 209 211 207
Minnesota 212 215 206
Mississippi 203 207 200
Missouri 212 214 210
Montana 207 211 203
Nebraska 207 210 205
Nevada 206 212 202
New Hampshire 214 217 211
New Jersey 221 224 219
New Mexico 208 210 206
New York 218 221 215
North Carolina 214 217 212
North Dakota 203 208 200
Ohio 213 215 211
Oklahoma 207 210 206
Oregon 214 218 211
Pennsylvania 215 217 213
Rhode Island 213 217 211
South Carolina 210 214 208
South Dakota 205 206 202
Tennessee 213 217 210
Texas 216 219 214
Utah 204 208 200
Vermont 214 218 212
Virginia 219 222 217
Washington 216 220 212
West Virginia 202 206 202
Wisconsin 209 211 207
Wyoming 202 204 200</p>
<p>^^^ Thank you!! Great info.</p>
<p>will a 219 in Texas cut it this year?</p>
<p>Just got my results in the mail! After reading this thread I was contemplating going to see my counselor on Monday (finals week, bleh), but the mailman just came and I saw my letter. LOL</p>
<p>Got a 225 in CA.
Breakdown: CR (74), M (80), W (71)
Pretty sure it’s past the cutoff? I hope. :O</p>
<p>Now we all wait for almost 9 months to find out … ugh. 219 in CO. Should be good, but not strong enough score to feel really confident. Oldest daughter on National Merit scholarship now… it meant a lot to our family. Does anyone have a current list of schools offering full rides for National Merit? I have heard it has changed since our oldest was college hunting.</p>
<p>momtimes3, it is another thread in this forum.</p>
<p>momtimes3:</p>
<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1565411-what-full-almost-full-ride-colleges-attract-nm-students.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1565411-what-full-almost-full-ride-colleges-attract-nm-students.html</a> </p>
<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/649276-nmf-scholarships-updated-compilation.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/649276-nmf-scholarships-updated-compilation.html</a></p>