<p>My child got a score of 204 during sophomore and a 201 during Junior year. Not sure how someone can score less. Any thots? Also does my child has any chances of getting commendation letter?</p>
<p>There’s always hope:-) In the past they were some years that 200 was commended. Maybe your child just had a bad day. I know my d missed several questions with careless errors. She also did much better on practice tests so perhaps this years test was a bit more difficult?</p>
<p>psatbob, we know several kids this year who had score decreases from sophomore to junior year. I have also seen on the forums that many thought it was harder this year. But I don’t know that the difficulty of the test makes any difference in the cutoffs, because the raw score is converted to a scaled score anyway for the purpose of being able to compare scores year to year. So if the test is harder, the resulting lower raw scores would be converted to higher scaled scores, right? That’s how I understand the process. </p>
<p>I think, unless the program has changed, they will know soon if they make commended. In the past, the top 50,000 were notified (in Feb, March, April?) that they were high scorers, and I believe all of those 50,000 are at least commended. But that may all be different now. The National Merit program has cancelled the part of the program where the top 50,000 students were allowed to choose 2 colleges to have their PSAT scores sent to. Since that has been cancelled, they may not have any reason to notify the top 50,000 prior to the fall. </p>
<p>Does anyone know about this? I’ve noticed that the language in timeline put out by National Merit Corporation has changed, so it may be that students won’t find out until fall if they are in the top 50,000.</p>
<p>In addition to my prior post, whereas the National Merit timeline used to say that in April the top students will be offered the opportunity to report scores to 2 colleges, that part of the program has been dropped. And now the timeline says: “In April 2013, NMSC asked high school principals to identify any errors or changes in the reported eligibility of their high scorers (students whose scores qualify them for recognition)”. So it sounds like the school is still notified which students are in that 50,000 and therefor either NMSF or Commended. Hopefully the schools will notify the students, but at least at my son’s school, that may take some convincing and/or pleading.</p>
<p>honestly, a 204 to 201 change is still within the expected range of a retake. Yes, it can go up but it does not for everyone. and a 204 is high to begin with so kids in that upper range are less likely to see an increase. Many still do; it’s just less less likely unless there is lots of test prep between sophomore and junior year. on the SAT, it would only be a 30 point difference, which as far as ability goes, is negligible. Being a commended student seems to make no difference for anything except it is an honor. I don’t think colleges care much at all. so i would not sweat it if your child misses being a commended student. Colleges will more interested in SAT and ACT scores than commended status.</p>
<p>Thank you for your responses. It is a wait and watch game for now.</p>
<p>@texaspg, if you see this post, I have a question, please: </p>
<p>In your post #115, you state: “Seeing that 2 wrongs in writing translates to 74, 3 wrongs in Math translates to 71, my guess is that the cutoffs are closer to the highs of 2014. If the test is harder, the wrongs don’t lose so many points.”</p>
<p>So I take this to mean that you believe the state cut-offs for Class of 2015 will be along the lines of the high cut-offs for Class of 2014? And this is based on the scoring you’re seeing reported on CC? I ask only because DS got a 213 in KS, which is the mean score looking at scores over the past several years, but it’s 3 points lower than the 216 cut-off for KS last year. I realize you have no crystal ball…I just want to make sure I track w/your analysis. DS & I realize that his chances are slim, and he’s not even focused on NMSF right now, but <em>I</em> am - because our state flagship would be highly affordable if DS made it all the way to NMS.</p>
<p>Just looking for thoughts/insights while we wait. I appreciate any insight, even if you’re skeptical that 213 could make the cut this year. I’d rather be realistic. TIA!</p>
<p>GoAskDad, I have been trying to predict cutoff scores through 3 kids now - classes of 2010, 2012 and 2015. S3 now has the exact same score as the cutoff for Texas for classes of 2012 and 2014. I just don’t think we have any info that will allow us to predict the cutoffs. Back when the percentiles were based on a sample of test-takers from that year, we had more data to use for predictions. But now that we only have percentiles from class of 2014 tests, we have nothing to use for predictions. College Board converts raw scores to scaled scores for the purpose of allowing comparison between different tests and different years. If this year’s test was difficult, then the scaled scores should reflect that. But I just don’t see any way to make predictions as to what the top 1/2 of 1 percent of test takers got on the test. I keep reminding myself that last year all scores were up (except LA), the year before all were down (except LA), and that Texas seems to be up down up down for the past several years, so this should be a down year. I know that is a stupid analysis, but I feel better thinking there is a pattern here. Now, when the state summaries are posted (I think in February), I think we will see percentiles based on the actual students who tested in 2013. I am hoping that there will be some useful info in that report.</p>
<p>I have seen several people mention here on CC that College Board said there were many more test takers this year. From 2007 to 2008, there was an increase of over 100,000 test takers, but it didn’t seem to raise the cutoff scores in 2008. Many states now pay for sophomores to take the test, and I think that is where the big increase will be. Also, the kids who had a shot at NMSF were probably always going to take the test, so I suspect the increase in test takers doesn’t come from a group of likely top scorers. But all this is just conjecture and an interesting way to pass the time until September.</p>
<p>Still, any thoughts out there? My prediction is that scores will generally be down from last year’s highs.</p>
<p>GoAskDad & Barfly – count me as another person watching carefully (but not really understanding some of the predictions). Hoping it won’t go up at all (or not much). I know NMF is a long shot but any merit money would be nice.</p>
<p>Wish we had some actual statisticians on here! Anyone? My 2 semesters of statistics over 30 years ago just aren’t helping me make sense of the numbers. I just think the bottom line is that we don’t have enough data. </p>
<p>I have 2 National Merit Scholars, so I know how sweet that merit money is. And that sibling competition is fierce! More than anything, S3 wants to keep up with big brothers. I think he is sort of assuming he will make it, so it will be a big jolt to him if he doesn’t.</p>
<p>Barfly, thanks very much for your detailed post. I agree that it seems there’s no way to “predict” NMSF cutoff trends for the Class of 2015, but reading texaspg’s post #115 made me wonder if she was comparing this year’s scoring (as reported by various CC posters, including me) with scoring from last year…and then making predictions based on that. Since texaspg is a CC Super Moderator, I thought there might be some special insight. Every other post I read basically tells us we’ll have to wait…and I get that…but, wow, NMS would be so helpful to our family! Even if DS misses the cutoff by 1 point, which would be his luck, he did his personal best on the PSAT so I’m not going to be distraught. We were really pleased with his score and he feels good about it.</p>
<p>Here’s what has me wondering about the cutoff going down…and it’s anecdotal only, I realize: DS’s high school produces a good number of NMS each year, with students breaking 230. This year, the highest score in DS’s class is a 223 (and this is from a kid who got a 36 on the ACT in 10th grade!). There are (3) 220s - and each of those students are at the very top of DS’s class in terms of grades in higher level classes, accelerated math, etc. Then there’s a 217, and then DS with a 213. So his score is the 5th highest in his grade. I suppose I was just hoping that this could be a very small-scale sample of the cutoff going down 
On a related note, we have a friend in the next state over with an 11th-grade DS who is extremely intelligent. He did some PSAT prep, but I’m not sure the extent of it. Last year, in 10th, his score put him over the cutoff for that state. This year, his score went down by 2 pts - so they are in the same boat we are…just waiting and hoping cutoffs go down.</p>
<p>Oh, I should add that I see your post about scaled scores, Barfly, but I’m not sure I entirely understand it. I’ve been bugging DH to take a look at this thread to interpret for me Thank goodness no one is testing ME on my understanding of <em>anything</em> these days!</p>
<p>I’m in this for the long haul too, and am eagerly anticipating the state specific data. I was afraid to read too much before the results came back. I knew DS would be within spitting distance, but feared he’d fall short. His scores came back high enough that he (almost!) should be a sure thing, but I’m not so na</p>
<p>GoAskDad, my point about scaled scores is just that, regardless of what the raw scores are, College Board scales them based on whatever their purposes are. They say they scale them so that scores can be compared with other tests that year or other years. So in a perfect world, with perfect “scaling”, the only thing affecting the cutoff would be how “smart” the test-takers were that year. We shouldn’t be able to predict cutoffs going down just because the test was hard, etc.</p>
<p>But, I really don’t know! Just passin’ the time until September, which is about 10 years from now. Aarrrgghhhhh!</p>
<p>Our school seems to have the same situation as yours as far as grades being down. Normally 4 NMSF plus National Hispanic and National Achievement. Last year, 7 NMSF and many National Hispanic and National Achievement. This year, my son only knows of one 225, his own 219, and one 218. In 2012, my middle son got a 233, and a classmate got a 232, and 2 others made NMSF. Even some of the super bright kids won’t even make commended this year based on scores below 200. I am hanging my hopes on the fact that last year all states were up and a “correction” seems in order - it just seems like historically scores do up down up down sort of. Not very scientific of me, I know.</p>
<p>PAMom, I have enjoyed some of your other posts about the statistics. Glad you student seems to be safe! My middle son was way above the cutoff and it was SO nice to relax. No such luck with S1 and S3.</p>
<p>I agree Barfly, I don’t think the scaling is going to help with our predictions. Ideally I would guess the goal is to set the scores such that the cutoffs don’t change from year to year. There really shouldn’t be massive ups and downs, though smaller states will be exceptions. This helps support the drop prediction, because if CB is doing their part right, the adjustments should go the other way this year. This of course depends on a comparable testing class.</p>
<p>I can’t make any predictions based on local numbers. We’ve had so few NMS, or even commended students over the years. </p>
<p>Barfly, my son only has one more point than yours, but PA seems to run a nudge lower than TX. I hope your kiddo makes it! </p>
<p>Some pessimistic part deep inside me though fears most that scores can jump suddenly again, because it’s their game, and they can change the rules at any time they want.</p>
<p>So happy to have others hear to wait it out with me! (and to see that I’m not the only one obsessing about these cutoffs)- Pamom21, I am pessimistic by nature, but I really believe scores will drop a few points across the board. It would be a natural correction after last year’s (seemingly) inflated scores.</p>
<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1596109-national-merit-cuts.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1596109-national-merit-cuts.html</a></p>
<p>GoaskDad - I really don’t have any information that makes my input any better than someone else’s at this time. </p>
<p>I don’t believe the test was harder than last year but it is selective by section. I think too many people did quite well in writing since scores dropped to 74 with 2 wrong. Samething with Math if 3 wrongs drop down it down to 71. I think reading is a little more stable.</p>
<p>However, when we go by state, the above may not apply since it is quite possible that all the states with highest scores had a bunch of people getting perfect scores while the students in other states had more normal scoring with fewer people being perfect. So my view is that for those in NJ/MA/CA, the cut offs may not change since they are already quite high for several years while for those states in 201-220 cutoff range it might go up or down based on the percentiles for those states. Until they publish percentiles for individual states, no one can play with the data.</p>
<p>I added a link to another discussion thread where people have been looking at already published charts.</p>
<p>Texaspg, thanks very much for your reply! I will check out your linked thread. Actually, I may have posted on it already. All of these threads sort of run together in my mind.</p>
<p>To those of us waiting, I guess we will just have to pass the time here until late August. It’s not like I don’t have a thousand other things to do in the meantime. This is clearly my excuse to procrastinate in other areas of my life!</p>
<p>GoAskDad, I’m right here procrastinating with you! ToDo list on my right, coffee on my left, reading CC.</p>
<p>Well my to-do list is currently buried under mountains of snow, and it’s too cold to venture outside at the moment. If only we had that state specific data!</p>