Again, thank you for taking the time to run the calculation. Looking at historical data I am feeling pretty good, but would feel even better seeing the numbers calculated.
2008 359 331 257 50,527
Thanks for the 2008 numbers. All the points fall on the line nicely except the 2013 point. Overall the R2 is still quite good, though. Last year, the model would have predicted, 213.9 and the actual was 212, so that point was a bit off. All the others were a half a point or less. For this year, the correlation would estimate 213.7 or a best guess of 214.
Once WRUAustin has completed calculations for every state what will we talk about until September? There’s actually not much suspense for us; the qualifying score in our state would need to be higher than it’s ever been for S17 to not make NMSF. On the other hand, his grades make it just as likely he won’t make NMF. I think at this point he’s ready to make the best of it.
@mstomper I’ll be crossing my fingers for your son. I’m sure they use the grades to get to the exact number they want from each state so there still a chance.
My daughter has the scores and the grades to make it, my concern is human error. Although our school averages around 20 NMF a year, our head GC retired and I’m not sure the new GC knows how to handle things. I know there was an issue getting the PSAT scores this year.
Thanks, @3scoutsmom. I posed the question earlier today as to whether D’s on the transcript could make a school that gives automatic free tuition to NMSF simply reject the student. Some folks seem to think it very well could, even if the overall GPA isn’t bad. I contacted the school in question (Ole Miss) and will hopefully get an answer soon. No need to drive 13 hours if a rejection is likely.
Any predictions for KY cutoff score? And is the recent letter to the guidance counselor supposed to be “confidential,” or is a student allowed to ask if he / she is listed on there?
KY’s data
14-15 101 177 94 10,810
13-14 107 163 76 11,453
12-13 124 129 137 11,078
11-12 90 96 119 11,001
10-11 125 151 150 11,393
09-10 103 148 90 11,081
08-09 110 107 92 12,013
Thanks for the quick posting of the data. Nice job reading back to see what was required. Last years prediction would have been 209.2 and the actual came out to be 210. This year’s data is pointing to 210.0. If that is wrong, the next likely is 211. I don’t think it will get back to 212 for this year.
This is another state that generally points to similar results as last year or a slight bias for 1 point higher. This is typically lower than the previous year (2012 test takers) or equal to it (not higher).
Thank you!
I got a 222 in CA, do you guys think I got it? I know, very very borderline, and I will honestly cry if it is 223 again like it was 2 years ago. And looking at the way the sections are curved (-1 in math is 76 just like two years ago) they are pretty similar to two years ago so I am really stressing
haha 221 in CA. will cry 
See post #293 for my latest summary of my predictions. My best guess based on my calculations is 222 for CA for this year. It could certainly be off +/- 1, though. I’m sorry that you have to wait so long. Your score and @chx177 score are both very good and you should be proud regardless of where the cutoff ends. I’m sure that your SAT scores were good as a result. Let’s hope for 221!
Thanks so much man! Really hope you’re right
224, California. Am I a semifinalist even without taking the SAT?
@rhubarbb … Congrats on a great PSAT score!! You will most likely be named a semifinalist, but the actual state cutoff scores won’t be known until September. Taking the SAT has nothing to do with being named a semifinalist. NMSF status is strictly a function of your PSAT score versus your state cutoff score.
If you are named a semifinalist, then you must have a “confirming” SAT score submitted to NMSC as part of your NMF application package along with your transcript, a principal’s recommendation, and a short essay.
@Wolverine86 Thank you, and thanks so much for taking the time to reply. Would you happen to know the tolerance for the “confirmation”? For example, if I got a 2210 would that suffice for my 224 PSAT?
@rhubarbb The qualifying score for last year’s NMSF (for all states) was 1960, and the essay wasn’t scored for the writing section - just the multiple choice subscore x 10. It has been 1960 for the last several years, so is unlikely to change significantly. All that matters is that your score is above 1960 - which a 2210 definitely is. I got a 211 on my PSAT - I’m in a low scoring state - and got a 2030 SAT (2050 not counting the essay) and made it just fine. As far as getting to NMF, it doesn’t matter if the score is 1960 or 2400. It might make some difference in getting to NM Scholar though the $2500 award, but on the scale of things that is not a big difference. All the large awards from the colleges (such as the full tuition+ or full ride awards) only require students to be finalists.
Wow, that really clarifies things. So I just have to score above about 1960. Here I thought that it had to do with my original PSAT score and all of the state rankings. Thank you so much!
Does anyone know what the cutoff score for ‘commended’ in California is? Thanks.
@Abbylawi My counselor said it was 222