does anyone know what the cutoff score was for NJ semifinalist? Have they been released yet?
@vmiller7723 Actual cutoff scores for NMSF will not be available until September. Until then there are only estimates.
@crowlady ok thanks for the clarification.
Does anyone know if the list of semifinalists has been sent to colleges early? Because I did get an email from a college calling me a “Potential National Merit Finalist.”
@tylerfenchfrye Colleges can get lists of students with scores above some threshold. They may not know your specific score, and you don’t know if the college set a threshold more like the commended threshold (~202) or the NMSF threshold (varies a lot by state). You should know by now if you are comfortably above your state’s typical threshold or if you are borderline or if you are unlikely to reach the threshold (check earlier discussions on this thread). If you are borderline you won’t know until September if you made it.
@crowlady that’s what I figured, I just saw others talking about a possibility that a semifinalist list has been released early because they may have released one to principals or colleges last year, and I didn’t know if that had been confirmed or something.
My score is 2-3 points below what the cutoff in my state usually lies around (Georgia) so I kind of had already decided I wasn’t going to make the cutoff. But then that email rolled around and I was like… What? Haha.
@tylerfrenchfrye Sounds like you are at least on the commended list!
@crowlady does commended scholar have any value? It’s so unfair cuz I’m from NJ and my 218 would be finalist in a lot of states but is very unlikely to make the cutoff here.
@vmiller7723 yes, commended is still something to be proud of and list on your college applications.
IMO the process is very unfair, but colleges and other scholarship programs know that it is and aren’t going to discredit you for not being a finalist. Like I said, being commended is in and of itself a great honor.
@WRUAustin Could you do a prediction for CT please?
14-15 230 519 290 36077
13-14 289 510 249 35595
12-13 372 416 410 34786
11-12 256 339 304 34605
10-11 280 426 388 33715
09-10 300 594 313 32846
08-09 301 352 233 32764
Thanks 
Last year’s prediction of CT would have been 219 and the actual was 220, so it was off last year even though the R2 value was pretty good. For this year, the prediction is 219.2. The data look very similar to last year. So, I would be more conservative to estimate 220, but 219 is possible. I hope that helps.
Do you have predictions for NY by any chance? I scored a 219. How likely is it that I will make the cutoff?
Thanks.
See post #291. You stand a good chance of making it. Good luck.
@WRUAustin
Wondering if you could give me an estimate for GA? Would be much appreciated. I know a few pages back you gave a quick estimate but I don’t think anyone provided you with all the numbers.
75-80 range:
2014-15: 356/628/433/33430
2013-14: 323/655/275/34046
2012-13: 409/512/490/34046
2011-12: 253/336/444/33280
2010-11: 406/638/539/37136
2009-10: 283/507/215/37689
2008-09: 309/337/287/38544
Let me know if you prefer the 70-74 range and I can send those also.
Thanks for the numbers. GA’s R2 (goodness of fit) is good. For last year, the model would have predicted 215.5 and the actual was 215. For this year the model predicts 216.2 so 216 is my best guess. GA bucks the national trend by potentially having a higher cutoff this year, though I think the abnormality was last year when it was 2 points lower than the previous year whereas many states (such as Texas) only declined by 1.
@WRUAustin
Thanks so much. Of course, my DD is at 216 so just a tad worried that the cutoff will actually be 217. My gut was saying 217 since its been there and higher before and only 1 year when the change was only 1 point plus the commended score back up to 202. More sleepless nights ahead as she doesn’t want to go to the Hope scholarship schools. So appreciative that you ran the numbers for me. Ever hopeful…
I saw that someone mentioned VA, but didn’t post dats. Here it is.
2008/495/477/424/52,431
2009/458/ 623/343/53,610
2010/599/750/721/54,159
2011/405/458/440/51,326
2012/667/696/631/50,115
2013/550/864/337/50,608
2014/503/944/488/49,779
I don’t think my daughter made the cutoff. We live in rural VA and northern VA raises the scores:(. She got a 216. She got a 2200 on the SAT & a 36 on the ACT…
@WRUAustin thank you very much
I think I’m probably commended unless the score randomly drops a few points, but oh well.
Has the cutoff for Arizona been predicted yet? If not, how can I find the numbers necessary to make a prediction? Any insight would be much appreciated.
Any help with Nebraska prediction would be great.
Years # CR M Wr Students NM Cutoff
2014-15, 35/ 81/ 38/ 5,319 total/ ?
2013-14, 46/ 82/ 49/ 5,605/ 209 cutoff
2012-13, 57/ 44/ 71/ 5,964/ 207 cutoff
2011-12, 38/ 46/ 37/ 6,730/ 209 cutoff
2010-11, 56/ 60/ 46/ 6,260/ 209 cutoff
2009-10, 47/ 117/ 47/ 6,279/ 210 cutoff
Thanks