Does anyone know the predicted cutoff for Idaho? I got a 211 and it has been 211 like 3 out of the last 4 years, but never higher than that. But i’m still super nervous. Is this year looking to be higher, lower, or similar to last year? Also what is typically the announcement date for the actual scores?
Thanks!
@dapark62 I did some searching and I don’t think @WRUAustin has done calcs for Idaho yet – you could dig up the data need to run the regression (see post 462). However, your score would qualify you every single year at least since 2007 (I found a thread by searching that had 11 years of historical cutoffs). Most predictions seem to be about the same cutoff as last year, but it does depend on the number of juniors in your state, and less populous states may be more prone to fluctuations from the trends. At least that’s been my takeaway. I still think you’ve got a good chance of making it.
@vmiller7723 I am sure the calcs have been done for NJ. If you tell me which post has the stats I can try to interpret the results for you.
They don’t actually announce the scores officially but they do release the list of names around the 10th of September – but not all states/counties post their list. Homeschoolers on CC who get notified with the schools start posting their results first week of September and so the cutoffs will slowly be derived. If your school doesn’t tell you promptly (like ours) you can call NMSC and they’ll tell you after the 10th or so.
I took a closer look at NJ by finding the junior class enrollment. There was a slight change, but my best guess for NJ is still 224, but if I’m wrong, it will be downward to 223, not likely upwards. In other words the prediction is about 223.5.
Could this be the year that a state has a 225 cutoff? If so, I hope it isn’t MD!
@WRUAustin here are the Idaho stats. Could you make a projection? Thanks
Year Critical Reading/Math/Writing/Students/NM Cutoff
14-15 36 55 32 7,273 ??
13-14 56 56 39 8,510 211
12-13 60 39 55 8,088 211
11-12 41 36 32 6,553 207
10-11 54 59 63 5,919 211
09-10 42 66 24 5,617 208
08-09 40 45 30 5,786 209
I know I’ve read something about when colleges find out who made the state cut-offs, but I can’t find the post. I’m just wondering because my D just yesterday got mail from colleges with good National Merit scholarships that have not sent us anything in the past. Of course, I’m probably reading WAY to much into it…
@palm715 I’ve heard that colleges (such as OU, for example) can buy lists of high scorers for each state who might be likely, though by no means guaranteed, to make NMSF. Can’t remember where I saw that either. I got a slew of mail from OU - they advertise a lot to NMSFs/NMFs.
Last year we weren’t notified by our school of DS’s NMSF status until many days after the official release of names to the press (we actually found out from a teacher from another school on press release day who called to congratulate us).
To my annoyance, our principal dragged his feet on notifying us and doing his part of the NMF nomination, leaving us only a week or so before the deadline to do the remaining parts of the NMF application.
My question is: when can students (who are told by their schools before the official press release that they made the cutoff) start working on the NMF application?
Can they begin when the school unofficially finds out in late August or early September? Or does one have to wait until after the “official” public release during the second week of September?
Anybody know?
I, for one, will be a little more insistent about finding out ASAP this go around!
They can’t begin until the school gives them the “packet” According to our GC the kids at our school will be invited out to a special lunch with the principle and given their information packets then. I know this is at least a few days before the official press release because they always have a group picture published on the day of the press release on the school web page. Our school historically has an average of 20 NMSF out of a class size of 600ish. GC assured me she knows how to handle this;-) But it doesn’t mean I won’t be stalking those homeschool posters with the rest of you!
Thank you for posting the numbers. I found the public school enrollment data very easily for Idaho, so that makes the calculations better.
The regression would predict a score of 208.25. The past 2 years have been 211, but this year’s numbers are considerably weaker. I don’t see anyway that Idaho exceeds 211 this year. I think you should be safe.
Over the past 6 years, the error in the prediction vs. actual has been between 0.6 and 0.9. Good luck
Thanks @3scoutsmom - that is exactly what I needed to know!
3scoutsmom
What state are you in? 20 is a big number of NMSFs!
@maddan9497 Texas! (highly rated, non-magnet public school, only high school in the district) in 2010 they had a record 44 NMSF with a > 600 class size!
Our kids’ school had 32 last year. It has two magnet programs, though.
What was the Texas cutoff in 2014?
I read some of the thread from last years “class of 2015 nmsf/nmf qualifying scores”. The first NMSF notifications came to homeschool principals on 9/2/15…and some schools that received their information around 9/2/15 were proactive at notifying their students right away. Other schools read the notification wrong and thought they couldn’t notify students until the press release date of 9/10 (the notifications actually said they could notify students/their families only before that time - but some schools didn’t interpret it that way and held off on notifying them until 9/10 - or unfortunately, sometimes much later!).
Last year’s thread had much activity during that 1-2 week period in early Sept…with many homeschool parents posting as soon as their notification was received. That helped other parents to know that they should/could start gently asking the school if they had been notified. Some schools were very coy and denied getting anything - thinking they had to wait to “announce” the information at an official time.
Also, according to that thread - the notifications to the principal included information for them to login online to print out the “letters” for each qualifying student. Those letters have the information for the students about logging in and making an account in order to begin the application process. There was much frustration last year from parents/students because they either weren’t getting notified right after the principal received the information, or they were told in a fairly quickly, but they weren’t getting a copy of the letter in a timely manner, and therefore could not begin their application process. I think they said the apps. were due in the first part of Oct. (around Oct. 10th). So, even if students hear right away and get their letter from the principal or GC, there is only about a month to complete everything.
Sorry this is so lengthy, but I wanted to share the experiences from last year (and I am guessing it has been similar in other past years as well)…so that all of you can be prepared that EACH school deals with it in a different way. In our case, I don’t think that our small HS has ever had an NMSF (until my S16 - hopefully!)…so I have NO idea what to expect. Our school most likely has no idea how it works or what to do, so hopefully they read the instructions thoroughly and notify us right away! Good luck to all of you during this next phase!
Class of 2015 was 218, class of 2014 it was 219 (ALL TIME HIGH).
And class of 2012 was also 219.
@palm715 You’re not the only one reading too much into the mailings! 