Class of 2021 National Merit Thread

Good point. My bet is Texas will go down to 220. I am really interested to see what this curve does on the state cut offs. None of D’s “try hards” peers have their scores yet, but they are all abuzz about the curve.

We are in NC but I just had DS log on to his collegeboard website and it says his scores will be released 12/9-12/11. I guess we will just have to wait. I do not understand how some can see the scores already?

@yearstogo on our school’s homework website (where you can see homework grades, transcripts, report cards, etc), there is also a testing section that shows MAP test scores and PSAT and SAT scores that are taken at school. Illinois uses PSAT and SAT scores to analyze performance for all high school students and the tests are mandatory so I think that’s why they show up on the homework website. If a student takes an SAT on a Saturday that’s not part of these test dates required by the state, it takes forever for it to show up. And then it’s in Naviance, not this homework website.

@yearstogo Scores are now available for schools to download. Some schools then load the scores into websites such as Naviance or Infinite Campus where students have accounts and can see their own scores.

Good luck everyone. Its a nerve wracking problem but well worth the stress!

Stupid question: how do people know that the curve was “bad” for the first test. My son’s school was all wrecked about being on fall break for the first test, and they had to take the second date test. The teacher who oversees test prep for his school was pleased by the number of kids who had a high index.

@luckymama64 The scoring scales from two of the three PSAT test dates are published on PDF pages 17-18 (printed page numbers 15-16) here: https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf

Any guesses on the Commended Cutoff for this year?

I’m thinking 212-213

California here. As posted elsewhere, we are also on pins and needles. S21 scored 1560 on the Nov. 2, 2019 SAT and took the PSAT two weeks before that, said it was easy. But in California if you miss more than like one question, you’re in trouble. We are very nervous! I just texted him that some of you guys are saying the scores are out now, for GCs to see, so he should ask his today if that was correct. Not sure if that was specific to a certain state or homeschooled kids only?

School just posted D’s PSAT to Aeries grade account. She got 1510. We are in CA and our selection index cutoff last year was 222. Her College board account doesn’t show scores yet.

@amnmsj Do they give you the sub scores? She should be able to figure her score from those.

@amnmsj , Congratulations! Lowest SI possible with a 1510 is a 226 so… well done!!

@luckymama64 The second test date’s curve was much more forgiving than the first. Sounds like your kid’s school got lucky on this one!

Hi all: We’re waiting on pins and needles for D’s score as well (nothing is loaded into her school portal yet).

In the meantime, I’m a bit confused about all the chatter about the brutal curve on the Oct. 16th test, which is the one she took. Isn’t it the same 16,000 top scorers proportionally distributed across the states who make NMSF each year such that the number of semi-finalists from each state is fixed? And, unless they were ill and took the make-up test, students from each individual state generally tested on same test date, no?

Therefore, since students are only completing against students from their home state, all the test takers from the Oct. 16th date are all equally affected by the curve, no? If anything it should simply result in lower SIs from all the states whose students took the Oct. 16th test. The only competitive disadvantage that I can see is that ANY dumb mistakes or mis-bubbles could take a kid out of contention this year since the content was so easy (which is what my D said at the time).

Or am I misunderstanding something about how this all works? Let me know: thanks.

@Phlipper Her naviance account has sub scores. Her SI is 226!

@amnmsj , Congratulations!! That is the highest SI score I think I’ve ever seen!! Has she already taken the SAT? Did she blow that out of the water too?

@amnmsj Congratulations!!! That is an awesome score! That is just one question missed one from either writing or math!!! Yes, very curious how she did on the SAT. So good to have it locked up!

Cheering all our kiddos on! This is one anxious week.

@UpNorth2019 , I agree with you 100%.
This is what I have been telling my D. She is only competing with the Texas kids and since 90% of All 11th Grade PSAT takers took the Oct 16th test then 90% have the same terrible curve.
In my mind, this has got to influence state SI scores and commended. . Someone please correct me, if my thinking is faulty.

@BingeWatcher , the thought has crossed my mind that if each state has X amount of Semifinalists, there are a good amount of those spots that will be filled with students who did not have this harsh curve. As an above poster mentioned, their PSAT tutor (from the later test date) was “pleased” with the number of kids with a high index score.

Anecdotally I’m extrapolating that if their school even has a person in charge of PSAT, then that school likely has a lot of smart students taking the test. Whatever state that is undoubtedly will have slots filled by students from that school that may or may not have fared as well on Oct 16th, and that is not at all to take away from their achievements. (My older daughter had a “normal” curve and it doesn’t mean she was any less deserving of NMF, just that kids with harsh curves catch an extra tough break).

Even our friend Art from Compass, an undisputed expert in his field, had this to say on his blog today regarding yet another crazy PSAT curve: “It’s frustrating the College Board has done this again.”

I could not agree more.

Given a choice in hindsight, I would have much preferred my D21’s odds on the more generous or “normal” curve than on the awful Oct 16th curve. One allows for a few simple human errors and the other one eliminates you for them.

@OceanIsle , I don’t understand how to navigate Art’s blog. I was curious what he had to say about the terrible curve but can’t find any comments.