Clear-cut evidence that the SAT is a HORRENDOUS predictor of college GPA

<p><a href="http://professor.rice.edu/images/professor/report.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://professor.rice.edu/images/professor/report.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>Read page 29.</p>

<p>Clearly SAT scores do not predict college gpa well AT ALL.</p>

<p>So, why is are SAT scores so important in the college admissions process?</p>

<p>This is RIDICULOUS. The College Board is probably blackmailing all the college admissions people to make them give the SAT so much weight. jk, but seriously, this is ridiculous the SAT doesn't predict how well you will do in college AT ALL.</p>

<p>I fail to see what you are talking about. Page 29 is a chart showing that female athletes’ SAT scores differ less from the general student body’s than males’. Page 31 of the report, however, displays 3 graphs that completely refute your assertion in the title of this thread.</p>

<p>All three lines demonstrate a significant positive correlation between SAT scores and college gpa, most significantly in the freshman year. Alone this only leads to a correlation ranging from .15-.2, but coupled with high school gpa this leads to a correlation approaching .5, much higher than either data alone. There are far too many intangible factors for SAT or high school gpa to explain all of the variability in college performance, but the SAT coupled with the gpa is the best measure currently available. This data could have much more easily have been found by using the CC search feature.</p>

<p>On the bottom right corner ofa page is the number 28. Under that are 3 graphs under the header " Sat-Academic Performance Correlation."</p>

<p>If you look at the graph, you will see that the SAT does a poor job of prediticting college gpa’s. Many people with high scores have low gpa’s, and vice versa. Under the graph the report specifically states that there “is a weak statistical relationship between incoming SAT scores at Rice and gpa at graduation.” What more evidence do you need? Get it now?</p>

<p>If this is true at Rice, it is almost certainly true at the other top schools.</p>

<p>Clearly SAT scores do not predict college gpa well AT ALL.</p>

<p>So, why is are SAT scores so important in the college admissions process?</p>

<p>This is RIDICULOUS. The College Board is probably blackmailing all the college admissions people to make them give the SAT so much weight. jk, but seriously, this is ridiculous the SAT doesn’t predict how well you will do in college AT ALL.</p>

<p>Tyler, I don’t know which page 29 you read. The one I read clearly shows that there is a weak correlation between SAT and college graduating GPA. Rice even admits as much:</p>

<p>“Despite the weak statistical relationship between incoming SAT scores at Rice and
GPA at graduation, the SAT is still a significant factor in the admissions decision.
There is a clear relationship between the SAT score and the probability that a
given Rice applicant will be admitted.”</p>

<p>From my experience, which is admittedly limited, I agree that the SAT (and the ACT) is a poor predictor of intellectual ability and academic success. High school performance (GPA, curriculum difficulty, class rank etc…) is a much more accurate indicator of intellectual and academic potential. I have known average students who prepared hard for the SAT and aced it and I have known extremely bright and capable students who did not really prepare and did not do well on the SAT. </p>

<p>By and large, most good students score relatively well on the SAT. But generally speaking, the SAT is better are measuring familiarity with the exam itself than intellectual ability or academic potential. Of course, I am not saying that a person who scores a 1600 on the SAT isn’t a better student than a student who scores below a 1000 on the SAT. There is a point when SAT score and intellectual ability and academic potential are correllated. But the range is pretty broad. Once a student scores over a 1200 on the SAT, it is hard to judge that student’s ability based solely on the SAT. And the graph at Rice seems to point to that fact. The distribution of high GPAs is spread pretty evenly between students scoring between 1250 and 1600.</p>

<p>That’s just my opinion of course, but the link above certainly seems to agree that there is a weak correlation between high test scores and academic potential.</p>

<p>

I’m sorry Alexandre, but I’ll have to disagree with you here. GPA is not a good measure by itself to measure student potential because it varies wildly depending on where you go to high school and what classes you take. Curriculum difficulty also fluctuates greatly from school to school. From my own experience in college, there’s a tremendous difference in the academic quality of students who attended top-notch private schools like Detroit Country Day and boarding schools like Phillips Exeter Academy than students who merely went to decent public schools, even if they took the same amount of APs or IBs. The SAT is a great equalizer and can be used to measure students from all over the country and world. Yes, it has its flaws, but are you aware of a better system that could perhaps be implemented that could perfectly a measure student’s aptitude to succeed in college?</p>

<p>I would argue that both GPA and SAT scores are useless by themselves with regards to predicting student college success. When used together though, they provide the best gauge for the readiness of a high school student to enter college.</p>

<p>I agree to an extent ring<em>of</em>fire, which is why I said curriculum should be heavily weighed. A 4.0 from a questionable high school and with a light load is not impressive. A 4.0 with an AP loaded schedule at a school where even the 4.0 students get 2s and 3s on AP exams is also not that impressive. Every thing much check out. A 4.0 student taking AP classes should be getting 5s and 4s on AP exams. </p>

<p>But like I said, I knew many people who had 4.0 GPAs, aced AP exams and A’Level (British system) exams and yet, scored in the 1100s or 1200s (back in my day, before the SAT was recentered) on the SAT, not because they weren’t able to do better but because they simply did not invest the time to familiarize themselves with the test. I would say that describes roughly 30% of the students at flagship state universities. Students who had 4.0 GPAs in high school, got 5-10 5s on AP exams, were ranked in the top 3-5% of their high-income public school and knew they would attend their flagship public university. Those students did not really prepare for the SAT but they did as well if not better than me in college and I did much, much better on my SAT. I prepared seriously for the SAT and they didn’t, and that, as my good friend Bob Frost said it best, has made all the difference!</p>

<p>So, GPA + SAT is an ok, though at times uncorrelated predictor of academic potential. GPA + AP exam results is a stronger predictor of academic potential if you ask me. At least AP exams are related to what one is supposedly learning in high school.</p>

<p>This topic has come up many times on CC in the past so I’d suggest searching for the old threads. </p>

<p>The Cliff Notes version of the bottom line. Statistically speaking the SAT is not a great predictor of student’s grades in college … there is correlation but it is not very strong. It is also true that the exact same thing is true about HS GPAs … they are not great predictors of student’s grades in college … slightly better than SATs but in the same ballpark. That said the combination of the SATs and HS GPAs is a lot better predictor than using either measure in isolation … maybe the admin folks do have some idea of what they are doing by asking for both.</p>

<p>At the risk of getting flamed, I would suggest that the weaker students take the easier majors. I would like to see a study that shows SAT v. college grades by major. Agree that HS grades and SAT are both relevant.</p>

<p>theendusputrid:</p>

<p>I’m sorry that you did poorly on the SAT.</p>

<p>as an addition to kayf’s post which I agree with, I would propose that higher SAT scorers not only major in more difficult subjects, but also may attend schools where it is not particularly easy to earn a high GPA…is this result posted causation or correlation?</p>

<p>totally agree with kayf: both relevant; both should be equal…the problem is, in most cases, they are not…</p>

<p>The problem is that there is no standardized test for gumption.</p>

<p>According to my now soph S’s unscientific observations, college GPA has a lot to do with the student’s impulse control and study habits once he or she is in college. </p>

<p>He informally listed “focus” and “drive” as the third and fourth factors. He said that there was a not insignificant number of kids who just weren’t ready for the college academic process. </p>

<p>It seems from what he has mentioned that freshman year the “students gone wild” syndrome gets to many otherwise “able” students who had good standardized test scores and GPA’s when the parents did guard duty in HS. </p>

<p>He noted that there are students who really cannot handle getting a “C” since in HS they always made “A’s.” He said one student went so far as mentioning that all the SAT prep courses and subject tutors in HS didn’t mean the student could “cut it” in college.</p>

<p>It seems that for the soph year there are some who just don’t see where it is all going to lead for them and they get “lost” in the “what major” delimna.</p>

<p>It’s interesting to me that this report did NOT attempt to correlate high school GPA with college GPA. On page 30, they explain:</p>

<p>“Records on both high school rank and high school GPA are sporadic and problematic because of multiple scales.”</p>

<p>I suspect this is what colleges understand when trying to evaluate high school GPAs for admissions purposes. SAT scores cut through the often immeasurable differences affecting GPA calculations from schools throughout the country.</p>

<p>I have also wondered about the points raised by kayf and rodney – do weaker students tend to take the easier majors at the less rigorous colleges?</p>

<p>Slightly OT, I noticed that page 29 shows percentages “admitted” and “not admitted” broken out by SAT scores. If anyone has seen similar graphs showing these numbers for other colleges, or percentages broken out by high school GPAs, I would be interested in knowing. By way of explanation, I have a NMSF-likely son with a less than stellar GPA who has fallen in love with Rice and is looking at some other selelctive colleges.</p>

<p>i agree that SAT is not important,but i always agree that AP and SAT II can actually be a good predictor of college GPA. (of course HS GPA is very important also)</p>

<p>I used the exact same data the paper presented, I just came to a different conclusion based on off that data. To some, GPA+SAT predicting 40% of variance in college.</p>

<p>To test kayf’s hypothesis, here is a study by the UC system for engineering students using the high school gpa and the new SAT. </p>

<p><a href=“http://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/senate/reports/CAIR%202007%20-%20Prediction%20of%20UC%20GPA%20from%20New%20SAT%20with%20Tables.pdf[/url]”>http://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/senate/reports/CAIR%202007%20-%20Prediction%20of%20UC%20GPA%20from%20New%20SAT%20with%20Tables.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>of note:

</p>

<p>Looking at the chart 28.7% of the variance in UC GPA is explained by a combination of high school GPA and SAT. Some might consider that low, I consider that fairly high.</p>

<p>At rice, and top schools in general, there aren’t really any easy majors.</p>

<p>Except for maybe kinesioloy, but in general at a top school the majors will be rigorous.</p>

<p>GPA’s at different schools vary, but admissions officers tell me that they have a big book or something that tells how impressive or unimpressive a GPA at a certain competitive or non-competitive school actually is.</p>

<p>Standardied testing is important, but the SAT needs to be thrown out the window. In college, you are NEVER going to use algebra 1 and the vast majority if college sutdents will not take many math classes in college so who cares how friggin good someone is at algebra I. </p>

<p>There should be a standardized test that incorporates high school curriculum. Actually, I agree with a previous poster who said that AP’s and sat 2s are important. That’s what you do for an ap and sat 2, and what you do in college, study hard for a test over material, then take it.</p>

<p>Judging from my own classmates and friends, I would actually say that the SAT does a good job in predicting a person’s capabilities academically. I’ll agree that some of the subject matter on the SAT could definitely be improved (i.e. the Math section is only through Algebra 1, the essay grading system isnt very precise). However, at my school at least, all of the top students academically also scored highest on the SAT. I’m not sure how accurately the SAT predicts college GPAs, but there seems to be high correlation among the people that I know between academic performance in high school and SAT scores.</p>

<p>I did poorly on the SAT English sections because English is not my first language. I’ve never seen words such as “genuflect” or “obviate.” How are knowing such words a predictor in my educational future? Is it because I do not hold an extensive grasp on the English language that I am perceived as unable to perform in a college classroom? I don’t thrive at language arts but I do at science (which is not tested for). Is my level of academic ability weak simply for the reason that English is not my strong subject? The only part that stabilized my SAT score was my math score which wasn’t great either since I’ve taken only three years of math.</p>

<p>No, the SAT is not an accurate predictor of academic or intellectual abilities. I really believe that personal effort makes a bigger difference to a students ability to succeed then test scores and GPA combined. In order to succeed in college, you’ll need to develop successful study habits, time management, and work ethic. None of these traits are about to be tested. The highest correlation to these are high school GPA, not a standardize test that merely tests for English and mathematical competency. </p>

<p>I really believe that the SAT should be optional. It’s basically the same as an IQ test which has been proven to be explicitly bias.</p>

<p>lol, if the SAT was optional, I fear for admissions officers to discern who the top students are.</p>

<p>In HYPSM + others, you’re looking at admissions officers who are looking at 4x the amount of 4.0+ GPAs than admission spots. Extracurriculars are hard to validate.</p>

<p>Get with the program, study for the SAT and do well. It predicts test-taking ability and some critical thinking aptitudes and is only one part of the college process. </p>

<p>Point being, adcoms need a standard to measure or you’ll be seeing even greater bias in favor of URMs, other hooks.</p>

<p>If SAT were optional, kids from known public and private HS would be much more favored. The talented kid from podunk would be left out. </p>

<p>As to Rice having “easier” majors, they certainly have less quantitave, including Art History, Classical Studies, Hispanic Studies, Visual and Dramatic Arts and Sociology. I apologize for how I phrased this. </p>

<p>I would like to see SAT and success in college by major. Many schools have different admit standards by major or school, nothing wrong with that IMHO.</p>