If you what to share specifics and complete profiles and applications (and schools applied to and admitted to), I will explain to you why.
It doesnât matter to us at this point. The kid has a bachelors and masters. His SAT and GPA were very good for UMD academic admission.
Frankly, his GPA and SAT were not as high on the mark for BU.
When compared to U.S. News selectivity ranks (which are based on standardized scoring and high school class standing profiles, and which appear below), the above seems much like guessing. Note as well that Bowdoin reports standardized scoring for all attending students.
U.S. News National Liberal Arts Colleges, by Selectivity Ranks
ď¸1. Pomona
ď¸2. Harvey Mudd
ď¸2. Haverford
ď¸4. Amherst
ď¸5. Hamilton
ď¸5. Swarthmore
ď¸5. Williams
ď¸8. Barnard
ď¸8. Bowdoin
ď¸10. Washington & Lee
ď¸11. Wellesley
ď¸12. Colorado College
ď¸12. Smith
ď¸12. Vassar
ď¸15. Carleton
ď¸16. Colby
ď¸17. Colgate
ď¸17. Davidson
ď¸19. Claremont McKenna
ď¸19. Grinnell
ď¸19. Middlebury
19. Wesleyan
Well, s19 was NMF, 1540 SAT, high gpa and rigor, all 5s on his seven APs including BC calc as a junior. Four year XC/track, scholastic art awards for art and sent portfolio, on the board of two regional non-profits, won state essay contest and more. I think he was academically in line with what Amherst and Williams look for. GC thinks he was waitlisted at Midd for yield protection and would have gotten in if he had taken the waitlist spot. Still, I donât think his results were predictable.
Last year I never would have expected my unhooked D to get into Williams and rejected from Wesleyan, but thatâs what happened. Holistic admissions for unhooked students, particularly from over represented cities and states, are almost impossible to predict.
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In holistic admissions or schools where so many are technically qualified, the qualitative assessment is important. Not many parents or students have enough experience or context to understand how an applicant presents in a qualitative environment.
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I donât know. I interviewed an unhooked RD kid for Dartmouth who I thought was a phenomenal candidate. Had overcome huge obstacles (childhood cancer, challenging single-parent household), had excellent stats and EC. Dartmouth rejected him (not waitlisted). Another school he applied to RD â Harvard â accepted him. In fairness to the OP, I didnât get to read his essays for the two schools.
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But this is my point precisely. Qualitative and holistic admissions are incredibly difficult to quantify.
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not familiar with nlac, but of course familiar with us news. Amherst Williams vs. Bowdoin are clear to me.
Waitlist vs. 2 rejects⌠not material.
It takes a lot of interest and studying. I agree on what you describe as qualitative and its importance in the process. In a large part, that is why many think it is not easy to predict.
Sorry, but No. Most people have neither deep familiarity with particular colleges nor know how to holistically evaluate. Most go on what they think is obvious about stats. You can tell me all day that enough research is what it takes. I do agree in large part. I advocate a *lot *of deep digging and a certain approach to analyzing. But thatâs not all. I could say, re: predicting, itâs not a game. Nor do I think itâs fair to tell kids theyâre a lock. Says who?
For a long time, Iâve said the best anyone can do is assess whether or not a kid (a stranger to you, no emotional connection,) deserves to appply. Even that requires perspective.
There are limits to what stats can predict. The rest of the app is critical, for an elite. Itâs possible that the better stats kid exampled above never connected with his app. He apparently had the superficial goods, stats wise, but not enough more. We donât even learn what the ECs were or how these two kids wrote.
And so many ECs donât carry the swing kids/families think. Etc, etc. (It helps to know whether those are common, easily attainable, reflect a kidâs overall drives, and more. Whether this hs or other connections facilitate the opportunity, whether they carry any impact, even small, or are just big deals to hs peers.)
Could you lay two or more apps side by side and âseeâ whoâs a more compelling choice? Maybe, but not whoâs going to get the admit. In the end, institutional needs weigh heavily. Thatâs not just adding URMs or more female stem. It ranges into geographic diversity, as well. Or natural limits on how many kids theyâll take from certain hs. Or whether a different hs, across town or even further out in the area, has remarkable kids this year and the college wants to take them.
As it stands now, what level of âresearchâ can tell you how that impacts Billy or Susie?
Should the colleges be more transparent? Why? Thereâs plenty of info out there and as it is, kids donât dig deep enough into what the college, itself, shows. If you think youâre tippy top quality, it should be possible to undertake this task. So many kids just donât.
I say all this based on many years being part of the team, at a most-selective. I canât tell you which of the kids I adore, the ones I think truly and completely bat it out of the park, will make it through final committee with an admit. Only whether Kid X is a contender. And thatâs also based on some view of the rest of the pool, that year, what the competition really shapes up to be.
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I, usually, would not tell a student he/she is âa lockâ at a highly competitive school - nor should anyone in most cases. âLockâ is a strong word and not one that I use. Of course, there are instances where an ivy-type wants to apply to a great school like Bowdoin, and for a variety of reasons, itâs a safe situation. On the other hand, I am quite comfortable offering insights and sharing directional odds, how I lean and how an applicant can be stronger. And I donât charge either.
Great that you worked in admissions. I have similar experiences and they bring me to a very different conclusion. I would assume a number of people here have pertinent backgrounds to this discussion. As you know, admissions officers sometimes struggle as counselors and others are the best-of-the-best.
For me, I am extremely comfortable sharing insights. That, of course, was not the topic or purpose of this thread. If I was going to do that I would man a âguess your weightâ booth at the carnival. Great time for it, since the carnival business is experiencing its own struggles.
The CC at my kidâs BS was pretty darn close though she was candid that there were several that could be admitted or WL. But she also has the benefit of having seen thousands of full applications and having had hundreds of conversations with with the AOs at these schools.
So no, you canât predict because you donât know what any school 's priorities are and who else might fill them. But with a perspective few of us here have, you could guess pretty well. I suspect, though, that there are more that are long shots, based on the full app, than many of us here would guess simply because we havenât seen the whole app and school profile.
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Iâve seen a few posters here on CC proclaim they can predict if they are given the whole application. Iâve also seen many other posters proclaim admission is a complete crapshoot. Neither is true in holistic admissions, predictably. One canât deny there will be unpredictability where thereâs human subjectivity. Some applicants may be so good that thereâs high likelihood by consensus that they will be admitted. At the other end of the spectrum, many applicants will be deemed highly unlikely to be admitted. But thereâre some applicants that no one can predict with confidence that they will be admitted. That unpredictability is what attracts people to this site in the first place.
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DS has attended a math circle for years and we have seen the top kids from the math college do very well, almost without exception, each year. While each year there are acceptances/denials that make zero sense, overall these kids get a few acceptances at very top schools. So up til this year I would say that admissions are predictable at a high-level but not at an individual school level.
So far this year, it seems to be much less predictable than previous years.
Wow. If I knew you were omniscient then I would have consulted you about D21âs list. Youâve got a magic ball! Iâd love to be prepared and know what to expect for her RD decisions. But, seriously, if you can really predict then youâd be a millionaire because parents would be flocking to you and paying crazy money to know ahead of time where their student will get into college. Theyâd only have to apply to one school!
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I was thinking the same thingâŚthen stop posting here, go open your business and literally bathe in the piles of money you will be making!
Letâs dispense with the snarkiness, please.
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CC is a great site. I suggested with âreasonable certainty.â First, someone should probable define that. Sounds like you would then add, âmost of the time.â
You are almost correct, besides applying to 1 school, of course.