What data are you using that support these statements?
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I had originally suggested that parents/applicants, not I, can predict admissions with reasonable certainty. For now, I would rather just read and share thoughts. No offense taken.
Public colleges should be more transparent than many of them currently are, based on their mission to serve the general public.
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All colleges should be more transparent. Transparency is a good practice in an open society for any business, whether public or private, for-profit or non-profit.
Amherst, Williams and Bowdoin are pretty obvious, but I do have the benefit of seeing many people apply from a diverse group of high schools. Middlebury is personal experience more than anything else, but again, defending why someone was waitlisted at 1 and denied at 2 is silly. Waitlist (in many cases) does not even mean a person did better, besides in his/her own mind. I truly do not know that situation.
Feel free to research A,W and B. You will come to the same conclusion - and prove my point.
So does that mean you arenât going to share the data you are using to make these statements?
I am familiar with all these schools, applicant profiles, the relative proportion of hooked candidates, among other things, and have not come to the same conclusion.
I prefer to not judge other posters as being silly.
Anyone who follows @mwolfâs process will have high accuracy in predicting college admission outcomes.
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Tell me more about your familiarity and what you found. I donât find you silly either. I will check @mwolfâs process. Maybe I can learn something new.
I donât have any data that suggest an overall higher average student for one of these six schools over another, thatâs my pointâŠIâm asking you for the data that support your stance.
@mwolfâs post is #24 on this threadâŠfor the lionâs share of applicants each year it is easy to predict outcomes: most colleges accept most students, and for the highly selective schools the predicted case is a non-acceptance.
@mwolfâs post was really great. I would add that when you look at what is being submitted to a highly selective school - grades, classes, school, tests (or not), application to include choices made, actual writing, activities prioritized, how written and how it sells⊠it is even easier to predict with reasonable certainty.
Predict what? An admit? You know all the factors?
Put another way, is this just about colleges with high admit rates? Sure, most kids get into Nowhere U, so whoopdy do, you can predict?
Anyone seriously believe they can predict an admit to the top holistics?
Im not liking the direction this thread is taking. NONE of us know it all.
You canât tell me anyone knows how final committee will go. Whether Susie is the N+1 from some area or wanting some major. Nor predict the kid perfect for H will be admitted to Bowdoin. None of this is about superficial appearances.
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@lookingforward, you are not reading carefully or just picking up the bits you want to debate. Predict âwith reasonable certaintyâ whether someone will more likely be admitted or more likely be denied.
Although I (and some others) are reasonably good at predicting admissions, that is not the point of the thread at all. My point is that people can do significantly better if they research and learn, be objective about their own situation and applications and take the emotion out of it. As an aside, Bowdoin is a common safer option for students applying to even more competitive colleges - and those top applicants DO get in.
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Woopdy do indeed 
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Well decades ago I was accepted to three Ivies, two great lacs : Williams and Amherst, Full named scholarship at Syracuse and ouright rejection at Conn College. Why?
I donât know you, but likely you did not show interest or they thought it was absurd you would attend.
I think experienced college counselors usually can predict with high accuracy results at top schools in a typical year for the students they advise. Not this year due to the odd factors of deferral, pandemic, test optional, but prior to that, yes, our counselor was right on the mark for my childrenâs classes. Whether parents and students accurately understand what the counselor is saying is another matter.
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Thank you. I agree 100%.
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Today, things are very different. I agree with @mwolf. If you are applying to top 10 schools. Even with perfect stats, pefect gpa, national award winner in multiple categories and coming from a top ranked high schools in the nation one canât know outcomes.
Do many/most fail to do research or over estimate themselves the the larger pool? Yes. But even if they are by definition, in the general set of accepted candidates, there are still far too many who apply. My kids have had friends who are nationally ranked in sports/other fields ( Iâm talking top 50). They often get into 1/4 or 2/4 top schools. Often itâs not their top choice. Other factors come j to play as well ( the girls have done better than boys, ORM have a tougher time, kids with driven personalities all seemed to do best)
My oldest has all the stats for any school and multiple national awards ( some academic/some other). Could I say with certainty this student will attend x with 5-10% acceptance. Absolutely not. Why? Because as a parent I know that the others accepted have similar profiles. Kids from top BSâs will be competing against the same pool and the competition is top notch. And there are other pools with equally impressive credentials. So, it comes down to luck, hubris whatever you want to call it.
Whenever my kids are in a competition they play to win but they also realize many things are completely out of their control. Itâs similar in college admissions. You can only apply. Not expect to be accepted.
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For the top colleges with holistic admissions, there is less certainty if an unhooked applicant will be admitted.
We donât know the content in confidential letters of recommendation; the specific college essays; the institutional needs; how many seniors as applying from their HS; whether itâs ED or RD; demonstrated interest; the alumni interview; and intended major all play a factor.
At the end of the day, if an applicant did their homework and applies to a good mix of reach, match, and safety colleges; they will have a good mix of acceptances and rejections and this should be considered a âsuccessfulâ admissions cycle.
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True
I agree that experienced counselors know what kids fit into what type schools and who is likely to be accepted. But I think many small private schools narrow the applicant pool intentionally to send their strongest candidates to certain schools. Does this affect acceptances? Likely yes as the colleges can depend on pre-selection already having been done.
Iâm not confident that a kid can get into any SPECIFIC school. But I do think most kids can get into a group of schools they apply to. For some kids, a couple of schools are interchangeable. For other kids, only one school will do ( and that is very problematic for the kid).
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