I just wanted to share a new WSJ article on college enrollment declines. Is this trend going to continue due to the extreme costs of higher education and population changes (less college aged students) or is this a short term pandemic caused dip?
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What’s interesting is - on the CC - we talk about the overall competitiveness, etc.
I’m sure it’s because those on here are focused on - your Ivies, little Ivies, top publics. We don’t hear much about - name your school - Eastern Illinois, Central Connecticut State, U of South Dakota, etc.
I wonder if there is data (I’ll have to look) on major trend.
For example, we see a ton of CS on the CC. Is it, as a % of students, more sought than 10, 20 years ago - or is it just the folks seeking guidance on the CC?
Thanks for sharing but I don’t have a subscription. Any way to share the text?
Below on majors is from Forbes -
The Majors That Lost the Most
Considering those majors that had at least 5000 graduates in 2019-20, nine fields of study experienced decreases in awarded baccalaureates over this ten-year period despite the overall increase in college graduates. Education, social sciences and humanities had the largest losses. In raw numbers, here are the ten-year declines in those majors:
- Education - 16,230
- English Language/Literature- 15,193
- Social Sciences and History - 11,618
- Foreign Languages - 5.202
- Liberal Arts/Humanities - 4,060
- Theology - 1,864
- Architecture - 1,006
- Area/Ethnic/Cultural/Gender Studies - 853
- Philosophy/Religious Studies - 614
The Majors That Gained the Most
Among the fields showing the largest absolute gains over these ten years, practical, occupationally oriented majors topped the list. Here are the fields that added at least 10,000 Bacherlor’s degrees from 2009-10 to 2019-2020.
- Health Professions - 127,659
- Computer/Information Sciences - 57,454
- Engineering - 55,675
- Biology/Biomedical Sciences - 40,199
- Business - 29,732
- Psychology - 22,753
- Parks/Recreation/Leisure - 20,417
- Agriculture/Natural Resources- 15,505
- Homeland Security/Law Enforcement - 13,431
- Math and Statistics - 11,187
- Communications/Journalism - 10,472
The Rise of STEM Degrees
Among bachelor’s degrees conferred in 2019–20, about one in five - 21% (429,300 degrees) - were in a STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) field.
Looking at the component majors that comprise the STEM field - Math and Statistics, Computer and Information Sciences, Physical Sciences, Biology and Biomedical Sciences and Engineering and Engineering Technologies - the biggest percentage gainers over the ten-year period were:
- Computer and Information Sciences, with a gain of 245%,
- Math and Statistics, a 70% increase,
- Engineering/Engineering Technology, which saw a 67% increase in degrees,
- Biology and Biomedical Sciences, a 47% increase,
If we consider Agriculture and Natural Resources to be a STEM field because of majors such as plant and animal sciences, it showed a 59% increase in degrees. Physical Sciences had the smallest increase in degrees awarded - 31%
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I know you don’t have to major in education to be a teacher, but this data is dishearting…
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College enrollment dropped for the third consecutive school year after the start of the pandemic, dashing universities’ hopes that a post-Covid rebound was at hand.
The rate of the decline has slowed this fall, with college enrollment dropping 1.1% since last autumn. Over the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, enrollment fell about 6.5%, according to the National Student Clearinghouse, a nonprofit that released a report Thursday.
About 1.5 million fewer students are enrolled in college than before the pandemic, according to the nonprofit.
“I certainly wouldn’t call this a recovery,” said Doug Shapiro, executive director of the research center at the National Student Clearinghouse. “After two straight years of historically large losses in student enrollment it’s particularly troubling that the numbers have not climbed back at this point, especially among freshmen.”
Online schools and historically Black colleges and universities were among the few categories of schools to enroll more students in the fall, data show. The shift reflects a change in the way students say they are choosing their colleges.
University enrollment was sinking for a decade before the pandemic and this year’s rate marks a return to that earlier, slower pace of decline. Factors contributing to enrollment’s long-term slide include concerns about student debt and the rise of alternative credentials.
College Town Economies Brace for Covid BlowPlay video: College Town Economies Brace for Covid Blow
The coronavirus has pushed nearly half of U.S. colleges and universities into some degree of remote learning, a change that’s sending shock waves through small college town economies. WSJ’s Carlos Waters explains.
Less selective private colleges, especially in the Midwest and Northeast have been hardest hit while the most prestigious schools, including most public flagship universities, have maintained strong enrollment numbers, according to the National Student Clearinghouse.
At online schools, where students take classes remotely, enrollment grew 3.2% from last fall, according to the Clearinghouse. For students aged 18-20, enrollment grew 23.4% over two years since fall 2020.
Scott Pulsipher, president of Western Governors University, which enrolled about 200,000 students online last year, said the number of 18-to-24-year-olds jumped to 11% of the student body from 6% five years ago.
Cost and value are attracting young people to online programs, he said. A lot of families can’t afford to pay for the extras colleges charge to enhance the campus lifestyle such as manicured grounds, large gyms and luxurious dormitories. They want to limit their expenses to those associated directly with teaching and learning.
Mr. Pulsipher said online education has evolved since its inception. “We’ve learned how to leverage technology to dramatically personalize learning in a way that can increase cognitive progress,” Mr. Pulsipher said.
Ryan Weger, 20 years old, was among the high-school students who enrolled at WGU during the pandemic. He earned a degree in a little less than a year for about $7,000 and now earns $65,000 a year as a data-center tech at Amazon in Northern Virginia. He also earned seven tech credentials while getting his degree.
“When I was considering going to WGU in high school the one con was that I wouldn’t get the campus experience,” Mr. Weger said. “But when I visit my friends in college I don’t feel like I really missed out on that much.”
HBCUs saw an enrollment uptick of more than 6% among freshmen. After years of struggling, HBCUs are on an upswing in the last two years, said Walter Kimbrough, interim executive director of the Black Men’s Research Institute at Morehouse College.
He attributes the increases to a cultural resurgence highlighted by Vice President Kamala Harris, an HBCU alum, as well as greater concern around racism following the 2020 murder of George Floyd. “Families are saying explicitly, I want to send my child to a place where they will feel safe,” Dr. Kimbrough said.
Temitope Soyombo, a freshman at Prairie View A&M University, an HBCU outside of Houston, said the sense of safety informed her decision to enroll. “It just feels better at an HBCU,” she said. “I’m more comfortable talking to my peers.”
The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear a case involving college admissions and affirmative action this fall. If the court decides schools are no longer able to consider race in admissions, Dr. Kimbrough expects that would lead to a boost in HBCU enrollment.
I’ve got a friend in Higher Ed who has been talking about this issue for more than 5 years. Covid brought more attention to the issue, but it is not new. I think the hyper focus on elite schools and state flagships (which are doing well enrollment wise) here on CC obscures the fact that there are a lot of schools that are struggling to put bodies in seats. I think it’s going to get worse because there is a demographic dip in college age students coming down the pike.
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Agree. It is part of the reason (maybe the only reason) that Georgia state colleges and universities reversed their test required stance for all schools except UGA, Georgia Tech, and Georgia College. The other 23 don’t require tests this year.
Georgia has that many state colleges???
I see it as a semi-permanent semi-situational dip.
If college prices remain where they are AND salaries maintain their trend, a lot of people of a certain type of job/workforce/intent are going to decide to skip college (or start but drop out) and enter the workforce.
Young people who are not averse to blue collar jobs or service-oriented gig employment, who might have attended college only because it was expected, are faced with a serious dilemma. I know a lot of kids from 2-parent working families who are faced with $20K-$25K/yr costs to attend in-state public universities. Whatever the reason (and no need to worry about the why) these kids either have to borrow $100K to get a degree - if they’re fortunate enough to finish in 4 years.
For many of them, that Year 1 salary is going to be in the same range (or lower) than their HS classmates who went directly into the workforce and were “successful.” A 23year old graduate starting as a teacher in NC will earn $36K-$40K/yr. A guy that same age who trained as an electrician/plumber might have his License by that age and be able to earn $50K-70K/yr working for a firm or on his own. A friend owns a 100-year Electrical company and says he is offering unlicensed workers $50K/yr to start, and will help them get their license to get a raise. He cannot find enough people. Another friend drives (for all the usual services) - I just helped him do his taxes and he made $80K last year. I just attended the funeral of a HS classmate and met several people I hadn’t seen in decades who now earn $90K+ without ever attending college.
The factory jobs many people had 40 years ago may be gone, but these students are finding other ways to earn a steady, comfortable living without repaying college loans for 25 years. Not trying to get into a back-and-forth about the advantages of a secure government job versus being an Uber driver. But for a 25 year old who can see themselves doing this for 25 years, starting at higher pay, controlling your work schedule, and being able to take advantage of tax deductions, all make this path seem like a good idea … to some.
I know kids who are in college who will certainly be entry level pencil pushers at government or private offices. Most of them will bounce around for a decade or two, on the lowest rungs of the payscale ladder for their profession, and pray they don’t get laid off in their 50s just after they pay off their student loans.
There will continue to be strong demand for college for careers where the starting salary is >$55K-$65K (ignoring HCOL areas where people say that’s low pay) and/or a certain prestige comes with the job.
The key is going to be to beef up Community College offerings; Create more pathways to $30K-45K/yr pencil pusher jobs besides requiring a 4yr degree, which will probably involve CC; Invest heavily in HS counselors to help guide students into the various post-hs paths available. (Right now, it’s basically College or Blindly Enter Workforce. Our “the collective OUR” kids need more guidance here.); Public Education has to retake Technical Education from for-profit schools, and start to train our future computer technicians, network technicians, and other similar jobs, in lower cost no-frills public education spaces.
Sorry for digressing, but this is not a one paragraph question and answer. 
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This is one reason why I am thankful that my state of residence (GA) has so many different ways to afford an education. Every student in the state that graduates with a 3.0 GPA can use Hope lottery funds (they generally pay 2/3rds of state school tuition costs for a 3.0 GPA in college) to go to colleges/technical schools and Zell Miller scholarship recipients can get full tuition paid for (3.70 HS GPA, 1200 SAT/26 ACT and must continue to have a 3.30 GPA in college). I have watched a few students working their way through colleges and technical schools for about ~5K-8K per year while living at home. We also have had some very generous dual enrollment policies. HS students used to be able to take up to 60 credit hours of dual enrollment (which was accepted at all state schools), but it has been lowered to 30 credit hours since my kids graduated and is paid for by the state as long as certain requirements are met.
Long term population declines will affect some schools a lot more (especially some niche private schools), but I believe that schools that provide enough value (lower costs or larger ROIs) will have no problem long term.
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Once the inflation bubble breaks, that’ll change soon.
To quote someone else, “It’s never been easier to get into college, and never been harder to get into college.” Depends where you’re aiming.
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Very well put.
I think our state and federal governments are starting to realize that paying $100K to get a $40K per year job is not sustainable when the living family wage is $60K nationally. Unfortunately, many colleges will close if they cannot restructure and/or make reasonable efforts to improve outcomes.
I always tell whoever is willing to listen that instead of focusing on T-whatever, go on college socrecard and see how students are faring AFTER graduation. If 25% or more students of a college is not making any progress towards paying off student loans then that is a terrible outcome.
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Outcomes are a function of the major more than they are a function of the college
Agree but college tuition doesn’t differentiate between majors nor do student loans (yes, I know some colleges have surcharges for certain majors but overall costs are close).
Maybe ROI should be part of the student loan application?
More and better access to paid training programs could also help.
College scorecard also has by-major pay outcomes, unless the number of students in the major at the college is too small. Major can have a significant effect on outcomes, and the mix of majors can have a significant effect on the overall school’s pay outcomes. For example, MIT has a median pay level of $111k in College Scorecard, but various majors range from about half of that to about one and a half times that.
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Which means that prospective college students should be aware of the pay / financial outcomes associated with their majors of interest, so that they can consider whether a given level of student loan debt will be realistically possible to pay off in a reasonable time.
If a kid wants to do a “studies” major, you can’t blame the college that the major is unemployable.
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Agree. We don’t do a very good job of educating parents and kids of ROI, risk and outcomes. But then again, credit and debt wag the dog.