Colleges in the 2021-2022 Academic Year & Coronavirus (Part 2)

We were open full time with all safety protocols in place, and they had to be approved by the state.

About half of our experienced teachers were out for the year. The students were “taught” by very low quality subs (there was a severe sub shortage) and by others who were not educators.

Hopefully this year is better. Time will tell.

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My direct experience is with Catholic high schools my kids went to last year (not parochial as neither is associated with a parish). However, I am also very familiar with what the private schools here were doing b/c the Catholic/ parochial schools compete with the private schools in the same athletic conference. My kids were at two different Catholic high schools and both were very strict - it was not “just wearing masks.” The parochial school my older two kids went to, also in the same archdiocese, followed the same mandates. In fact, all schools had to submit plans to the county government for approval before they could even reopen.

Some did leave public schools for the parochial/privates because the county public schools did not reopen as early as the privates did. But they did not leave because they did not want to adhere to mandates since the privates were following same mandates as the public schools.

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Then the breakthrough infection rate is closer to 7% not the .01% the other articles are discussing when they say 300 people have gotten sick even though fully vaccinated in Massachusetts out of 4.2 million vaccinated? Or it’s higher if you test randomly but lower if you only test those hospitalized?

Also, planes are supposed to have excellent filtration systems right? But only commercial planes not private jets?

I’m just playing devils advocate. I don’t think the scientific community has a clue what’s really happening…there’s too many variables to accurately keep track and things change all the time. A game of catch up. Just read that in Israel the efficacy rate of Pfizer against the delta variant is closer to 64%. Last week it was 90%.

We’re going to be masking, distancing etc…on and off for a while going forward.

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I think there’s confusion when people talk about breakthrough infection rate. If a vaccine is 90% effective, then the vaccinated people have 10% chance of infection conditional on their certain exposure to the virus. However, not all vaccinated people are exposed to the virus. They may only have 0.5% chance of certain exposure (without masks, etc.), in which case the breakthrough infection rate is only 10% x 0.5%, or 0.05%.

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The 0.1% or 0.01% or whatever tiny percentage reflects multiplying the chance of being exposed enough to cause infection by the chance of getting a breakthrough infection if exposed that much, while the 7% is only the latter. I.e. not the same thing, since in a highly vaccinated state, the chance of being exposed enough to cause infection is fairly low, but being packed into an airplane is pretty much a potential superspreader situation.

Also, the measure of breakthrough infections in the state may only count those who were symptomatic enough to be tested. Seems that in that airplane, lots (maybe all?) people on board got tested for COVID-19, so some asymptomatic positives were revealed, as were some with very minor symptoms who may not have otherwise thought to get tested for COVID-19.

A vaccine with a 90% efficacy rate isn’t a measure of one’s chance of infection (taking the inverse).

For example, in the Pfizer Phase 3 pivotal study, there were about 43K people enrolled.

-21,830 in the placebo arm, 21,830 in the vaccine arm.

-162 of 21,830 people in the placebo arm were infected, or 0.74%.

-8 of 21,830 people in the vaccine arm were infected, or 0.04%.

(.74-.04)/.74 = ~95% efficacy rate

The 0.04% rate of breakthrough infection is the number that one would apply a risk of exposure to…although we should also account for the increased R0 of Delta which is 5-8 as compared to alpha 4-5, and original virus in the 2s.

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It’s a measure of conditional probability (or chance). Not all 43k people were infected. Only some of them were. The assumption in the study is that people in the two groups (vaccine and placebo) are equally likely to be exposed. With that assumption, the exact probability of exposure to the virus doesn’t really matter. Only the ratios of the infected in two groups become relevant.

The breakthrough infection rate isn’t a fixed number for a given vaccine. It depends on the overall exposure rate, which changes based on how widespread the virus is and on mitigating measures.

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I understand what you are saying. I just wanted to make it clear for people that a vaccine that has a 95% efficacy rate doesn’t mean that someone has a 5% chance of infection if vaccinated.

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I agree.

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Was just going to comment on this ruling as well. This is huge and is only the beginning. Big win for IU and once the FDA gives the vaccine full approval, then more and more colleges and schools, not to mention hospitals, and businesses will be mandating the vaccine.

An appeals court also ruled this weekend that cruise ships leaving FL can require passengers can be vaccinated overruling DeSantis EO that they can’t require it. That the CDC has the authority. My exact language may be off, but bottom line is it was a loss for DeSantis and another win for vaccine mandates. That is what it is going to take.

I was at the high school I work at today and rumor is they are not going to require masks this year, however, no one will know who is or isn’t vaccinated. Why there won’t be a reporting tool for that is beyond me. Doesn’t seem any different than reporting other vaccines and not sure I feel all too comfortable about it tbh. Yes, I feel safe being vaccinated, however, we all know the vaccine is 95% effective and there are breakthrough cases. I have a parent with cancer, is a kidney transplant, and with other health issues so is significantly immune compromised. I can’t take a chance that I get an asymptomatic case and dont’ know it and then pass it on to my mother. I also know this area may not be as vaccinated as where I live which has a very high rate of vaccination.

@twogirls Agree that little kids can certainly wear masks all day if they have to. They are used to it and it’s not that difficult. Same with college kids and everyone else. My college aged daughters both wore masks all year, one constantly because her college was open for in person and hybrid classes, the other one not as much because while she was at school and masks were required, her classes were remote, and that was a Southern school and even though now they’re not allowed to require masks, they did require masks all year thankfully.

@NateandAllisMom Yep, I am one of those wearing masks in stores and I am vaccinated. My community is at least 80% vaccinated. I am not taking chances. I wear my mask in larger groups. Makes me feel more comfortable as people are not really paying attention to personal space. My daughter in Israel is seeing the impact of a highly vaccinated place going from not needing masks to everyone now needing to wear them again and knowing people who are vaccinated having break through cases thanks to the Delta variant.

Also, if people flock to private schools, it’s only because schools were open all year, but they still required masks and social distancing. Those schools will most likely mandate the vaccine and can more so than a public school, so I would think it’s less likely people will flock to them if the issue is mask related.

As for colleges, I don’t think they will be allowing anyone to take Gap years all of a sudden if things take a step backward. Last year many schools announced full in person and then during the summer their plans changed and they didn’t allow kids to change their minds. Some did, but many didn’t. It’s a risk these kids take. Everyone knows that certain schools have done a better job than others, and/or those requiring the vaccine will be better off than those that aren’t, or are only requiring it for a subset of the population. I have 3 kids all attending schools with vastly different rules regarding vaccines. One in the South is doing nothing. No mandate and no masks. So don’t see them doing anything to close or go remote. It’s on them if they have issues. I’m just thankful my daughter and all her friends are vaccinated and that her classes are with the same small cohort of about 30 students. My freshman, the only mandate is students living in dorms, hoping when FDA approves the vaccine then they will mandate it for everyone. But until the school is at 75% vaccinated then masks must be worn in classes, and some other places, and the last kid who goes to school in NY, 95%+ vaccination rate (for faculty and students), mandatory for all students, no masks required, fully open, and I bet they will have few to no issues all year because they had few to none last year and were open. Also, no need for testing if I recall if you’re vaccinated (or much more so, etc).

In the next few weeks we will see continued huge spikes from the Delta variant, but worse we will start to see the increases in deaths from it. That’s the sad part. These deaths don’t have to be occurring. We can argue all we want, but if we want to get rid of masks, and be safe, we all know the way to get that accomplished. VACCINES!

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Maybe they will allow Gap years because they all seem to be overenrolled :laughing:

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Haha good point! But unfortunately, I also think some of them are too greedy for that to happen. But I guess you never know!

Maybe going on the college of your choice Facebook group, parents page etc and educating people on the merits of a vaccine. We didn’t do this for polio and we shouldn’t be doing it now…

Covid19 is new to everyone. At the beginning they were trying everything they could think of to stop the spread - handwashing, masks (when available), plexiglass, washing the mail, sanitizing everything, 6’ distancing, limiting capacity, taking temperatures every 5 minutes,etc. and when a test was positive, isolating the person whether they were asymptomatic or had all the symptoms.

Now schools and businesses are trying to get back to full capacity and implementing the things they know worked (masks, distancing, hand sanitizer) and dropping the things they either know didn’t or think didn’t work. Can an asymptomatic person still transmit? We don’t know. The athletes in Japan who tested positive are asymptomatic but they are now in isolation. Is it a false positive, can they transmit? No one knows. They are all still wearing masks except when they are competing. All coaches, trainers, officials still wearing masks. I think tons of people would test positive if we did all the testing we did in last fall. When they test MLB players or those on the Texas legislative plane are tested, some come up positive but asymptomatic. Are they contagious? Is it a false positive? We don’t know so. Can they just wear a mask and reenter society?

Even Fauci has said stop testing people and the number of positives will go down.

If schools think masks are the answer to reopening, have at it. It is really a small sacrifice to make to be back in school. If a store, airplane, health care center requires a mask for me, small price to pay. If Tufts requires masks for its students, I bet visiting athletes will have to wear them except when competing. Thats what most NCAA, NFL, MLB, etc required this year and even this summer.

The masks also helped keep the flu cases down. Washing all the door handles and railings constantly was a good thing and helped with spreading the common cold. We all learned better hygiene and hand washing. College kids will still need a supply of masks for getting on any form of transportation -even the shuttle buses at the beach required them as they must have some kind of federal permit and our city bus system and light rail still require them.

i hope Cornell doesn’t change its tune on masks. After the Tufts info, I’m worried about other schools with high vax rates going back to masks.

I think we do know that asymptomatic, vaccinated people don’t shed enough virus to get someone else infected, no? Or that the chances are crazy low? Otherwise, I have to believe the CDC would be calling for masks for all. That’s what all of this is about. Making changes to policies with scientific data that shows the chances of breakthrough cases are so so small (remember it’s not 5%, it’s way lower) and then that person giving Covid to the next person even lower.

I’ll say it again. Our county is 80 percent fully vaccinated in the 12 and above group. No cases for two weeks. Only one the week before in our town. No masks for anyone over 12. People are jammed into restaurants and stores. I’m sure that plenty of people from outside of the county come here as well to shop, and eat and visit family etc. NO cases. Not in vaccinated people and not in unvaccinated people. No cases in compromised individuals who caught it because their shots didn’t work or because they are unvaccinated and caught it from an asymptomatic case.

The whole point of getting a high vaccination rate is to go back to normal. For colleges mandating the vaccine, their rate will likely be way above 80 percent. Not understanding why there would be a mask mandate. For those of you who think it’s no big deal, it’s also not some foolproof thing. Students won’t wear them when in dorms or at parties so the mandates are really for only some of the time they’ll be together which doesn’t make that plan worth much. And quarantining asymptomatic cases when there’s no remote class option would be a huge issue. I haven’t seen any details on how Tufts will handle that. I know, at the University of South Carolina, kids were told they’d have to quarantine off campus or at home. Quarantine will be mandatory but they’ll have no housing for it. Up to the student.

It seems like there’s no updated fall plan from a lot of schools as I browse through a bunch of college websites. Many have fall plans online that were posted in June.

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The problem is that our understanding of the virus is continually changing as more information becomes known.

I think this may be behind a paywall, but from today’s Boston Globe:

Provincetown is a tourist town on Cape Cod with a highly vaccinated population. They’ve had 132 cases in the past two weeks.

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Hm wonder why the difference? Are they asymptomatic and if so why did they test? How many have been hospitalized?

Ok here’s a story with no paywall. Sounds like all cases were mild and they’ve increased testing. Guess if you’re looking for it, you’ll find it. Are we now masking so we don’t catch mild cases?

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Watch the Olympic Village very closely. It’s the most highly scrutinized and tested collection of “dorms” on the planet. No college or university will come close to their protocols. If there’s a problem there…

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Yes… Your masking to stop any spread, minor or major . As I stated like in April or so. We will be masking indoors through winter. It great your town is doing well. But they aren’t the only ones going to school in the fall. Everyone will have to follow the schools rules. This fall should be a better experience then last fall so there’s that. But stating things that are not 100% true and then comparing to your community is not going to help the majority of kids going back to school in the fall. Whenever I go inside I wear a mask. It’s just not that hard to do.

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