yes. but that high percentage of breakthroughs is alarming!
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Breakthrough infections are still relatively low. New article up on CNN on how many media sources are taking the new data on breakthrough infection, transmission rates etc out of context. WH is annoyed with the coverage. The Provincetown data for instance- there is such a high vax rate in that county, that when infections occur there, of course itâs going to be in vaccinated people because there arenât a lot of unvaccinated folks there. Less than 1% of fully vaccinated people in the US have tested positive
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Is that supposed to be good news for the vaccinated? The issue is the media and the WH sold the vaccine on the premise that breakthroughs were going to be rare and taking the vaccine meant getting back to ânormalâ. Theyâve now failed on both counts. They never had any idea how long vaccine protection will last and the only way to really figure it out is to wait for Covid cases to increase among fully vaccinated people (also rarely, if ever, discussed). The vaccine is more about personal protection than herd immunity at this point and itâs going to result in a less ânormalâ college experience once again if vaccinated people can spread the virus to other vaccinated people. The possible silver lining is that hospitalizations and deaths are still lower at this point.
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B.1.617.2 / Delta in the lab seemed to be somewhat less neutralized by antibodies for the ancestral strains. It certainly was not the worst variant in terms of antibody neutralization â B.1.351 / Beta was worse, although most vaccines were still effective against it (though Oxford - AstraZeneca was not effective enough to be approved by South Africa, which chose J&J - Janssen instead).
However, because B.1.617.2 / Delta seems to result in much higher viral loads, those greater viral loads may be what makes it so much more contagious (more virus â more virus exhaled â more virus a person nearby inhales) and why it may breakthrough vaccination or prior natural infection at a higher rate (because a higher dose of virus may be too much for antibodies to stamp out quickly). Still, data from various places largely suggests that vaccination is still very effective against B.1.617.2 / Delta, just somewhat less effective than against B.1.1.7 / Alpha and B.1.
If the above is the case, then it could mean taking extra caution with respect to high-density indoor environments, particularly if one will be in the presence of the same other people for a period of time.
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Breakthroughs are rare. The vaccines were touted as 90-92% effective. Breakthrough rate is less than that. But breakthroughs get blown out of proportion in the media and in everyday conversation. The issue is not with the vaccine and the vaccinated. If we want college to be back to normal we can get that to happen if the unvaccinated get vaccinated.
The mask recs would not be coming back if we had a higher vaccine compliance rate
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Israel has a very high vaccination rate and theyâve re-introduced masking. We really donât know how rare it is because the CDC isnât tracking all of it. Just like the vaccine trials didnât track asymptomatic cases.
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But does it matter if so few vaccinated people are being hospitalized or dying? The percentage is SO small. Thatâs what does not seem to be sticking. Vaccinated people need to mask to protect unvaccinated? Why?
Iâd say it may not matter. But it does matter from a PR standpoint. Because now itâs moving from the vaccine breaks the chain of transmission to the vaccine protects the vaccinated but the vaccinated can infect the unvaccinated and vaccinated. Also how long does protection last? People seem surprised to hear about breakthrough infections but they were supposedly expected. Clearly not by the public and not so soon. How that information is used as far as policy is now developingâŠ.with the first being the CDC recommendation regarding masking.
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Because vaccination reduces the chance of infection, it still often breaks the chain of transmission, even if it does not do so 100% of the time. You are safer from COVID-19 around vaccinated people than unvaccinated people, although if you are vaccinated, your risk is not that high anyway in most situations.
B.1.617.2 / Delta being more highly contagious does mean that herd immunity probably requires close to 100% vaccination or prior infection, if we assume that both are 80-90% effective at inducing immunity.
New mask mandates or recommendations were put in place because the âhonorâ system wasnât working and unvaccinated people werenât wearing masks and thus spreading the virus. So vaccinated people have to mask because of the negligent behavior of the unvaxed. On a lot of college campuses everyone will be vaccinated so it makes sense not to have mask requirements or lots of restrictions, but I think a lot of schools will err on the side of extreme caution. The messaging from the media has been distorted, but the messaging by the CDC is not crystal clear either
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Letâs be honest. The science of epidemiology is primitive. The science of virology isnât too much better. Thereâs a lot we donât know about this virus. In the absence of more precise knowledge, we need to err on the side of caution. We know vaccines work and we know masks work. Neither is perfect but together they work better. We wouldnât need masks if everyone we interact with is vaccinated. Unfortunately, that isnât likely to be the case when we go to gatherings with people we donât know well or when we travel to other places. Schools that can ensure such gatherings with unknown and unvaccinated/unmasked people wonât happen, masks on campus wonât be necessary. But for other schools, they may have no choice but to require masks on campus.
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Statistics from the Barnstable County outbreaks:
Of the 469 infected, 346 (74%) were fully vaccinated. Of those, 274 (79%) were symptomatic. 4 (1%) were hospitalized. 87% of the vaccinated infected were male. Median age was 42. The age range of the 4 hospitalized was 20 - 70; two of those individuals had underlying medical conditions. The range of >= 14 after final dose before symptom onset was 6 - 178 days (ie number of days fully vaccinated).
Interestingly, 30 of the infected (not sure vax status) were HIV-infected; all were virally suppressed and none hospitalized. Makes me wonder if the current HIV therapies can assist in reducing Covid symptoms and keeping people out of the hospital.
Yes, so true! And it seems we havenât heard many cases of spread amongst those with natural immunity and antibodies. We are ignoring a large population that already had COVID.
The latest news is not going to convince anyone to get the vaccine. It only adds to the distrust in the CDC and WH
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There are also many people who had COVID who are unvaccinated and have never been hospitalized.
When I had it, I didnât even know. Same for my younger brother. We canât ignore the extremely large population who has recovered from it and have natural immunity. I say this understanding full well the seriousness. I had two uncles (older/and underlying) that died very early on.
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Rhodes college will be charging unvaccinated students and staff an extra 1500 dollars per semester to cover the cost of testing.
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Yeah, but maybe the person they passed it on to did end up in the hospital (or worse!)
We gotta think beyond ourselves.
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Nope. If I pass it on to someone who goes to the hospital, that person is almost 100% likely to be someone unvaccinated, so thatâs their choice.
this is exactly what is happening with my S20. One more set of bad news and he is going to not get vaccinated in time for fall semester and just stay home.
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Iâll give you that! But that unvaccinated person could pass it on.
Also, the unvaccinated do affect me, even though I am vaccinated. This will be around longer, more variants will pop up, I may not tolerate that next variant, and the economic impact of all this?? Oy. Is that what we want to leave our children?
Itâs math people. An individual is more likely to have a serious adverse affect from being unvaccinated and getting COVID than getting a vaccine. (Not to mention we should be thinking beyond ourselves and think about the greater good.)
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Replace âvaccinated peopleâ with âchildrenâ and this could be mistaken for an anti-vaxxer post from 2020.
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