Colleges in the 2021-2022 Academic Year & Coronavirus (Part 2)

[1NJParent]

@RosePetal35

Anyone who tests positive for COVID-19 will be required to isolate for 10 days or, if vaccinated, until they have tested negative two days in a row after five days.

Has Amherst reserved enough rooms to isolate those who tested positive? Any backup plan if the number of reserved rooms turns out to be insufficient?

[EmptyNestSoon2]

So it looks like isolation timeframes are 7-10 days (I don’t think the CDC or anyone is saying 14 days…it sounds like it is typically 10 days, but at Amherst if you test negative 2 days in a row after 5 days, you are free). Since it sounds like delta goes pretty quickly through vaccinated individuals, it sounds most likely that the common isolation time will be 7 days. That is not going to be “killer” for anyone, especially since I imagine faculty will be accommodating. And, it should happen at most once to an individual kid in a semester (seems highly unlikely kids will catch covid twice this semester). Whereas last year, kids sometimes had to quarantine multiple times if they had close contacts at various points. To me, this is a very reasonable and safe and manageable system. This system is likely to catch the early cases and block transmission to keep it to a minimum on campus, so I bet as the weeks pass, very few kids will end up having to isolate at all. While I hope my kids don’t get Covid at all, and therefore don’t have to isolate, the small possibility of a 7 day isolation period one time is not dreadful to me, and seems worth it. I think Amherst has a good plan!

PS although just the idea of capacity restrictions and no parties makes me VERY sad…
PPS and the fact that close contacts aren’t allowed to eat in the dining hall may makes kids reluctant to name their friends as contacts, as they may not want to be the reason their buddies have to eat alone in their rooms. I wonder if it’s better to not impose such a restriction, but to keep contact tracing in place so those kids can be informed and scale back their contacts on their own based on personal responsibility. Tough call.

[JBStillFlying]

Not a breakthrough number, but our local paper just disclosed that the number of fully vaccinated who were infected in MN doubled in just a few weeks: from .11% a month ago to .24% now. Still pretty low though it might be an underestimate as most likely only the symptomatic would be tested. Only .002% died. Small numbers, but the math is saying that .83% of those who were fully vaccinated but symptomatic died of Covid. Not sure of ages but guessing these are going to skew older/elderly. That’s been the case throughout 2021 for breakthrough hospitalizations in this state.

[TVBingeWatcher2]

You had asked about my D’s room mate. They are both vaxxed and agree to live by “Don’t ask don’t tell” rules.

[Yonkers6thBoro]

@bennty

I was just looking at very recent numbers from Vermont, and they’ve got what looks like an alarming proportion of sick-infected reporting vaccinated status,

Can you share a source, please?

The state reports that as of 8/7, there had been 630 breakthrough cases, 8 deaths, and 18 hospitalizations out of a fully vaccinated population of 431,519 Vermonters.

COVID19-Weekly-Data-Summary-8-13-2021.pdf

[ucbalumnus]

A rough approximation from the Vermont report:

• 21,398 tests this week (early August), approximately 4% positive → 856 cases (page 6).
• 187 breakthrough cases among the fully vaccinated in the most recent week (page 36).
• From other sources, 67% of Vermont’s population is fully vaccinated.
• Comparing 187 cases for 67% of the population versus 669 cases for 33% of the population…
• Fully vaccinated people were 7.26 times less likely to get COVID-19 than others in early August.
• To put it another way, vaccine effectiveness was 86% in early August.

[bennty]

Sure thing:

Limited breakthrough stats show heightened threat of Delta variant - VTDigger

Again, VT has a delightfully high vax rate, so (as in Israel) you’d expect to see the vaxed as a higher proportion of the people testing positive. The proportion’s risen quite a bit since late spring/early summer, though.

[JBStillFlying]

Looks like the Biden Administration will be approving boosters for nearly all the vaccinated with a timing of 8 months after fully vaccinated. Here’s the news blurb from WaPo that just landed in my inbox:

Health officials have concluded that Americans who received the coronavirus vaccine will need booster shots to combat waning inoculation immunity and the highly transmissible delta variant that is sparking a surge in covid-19 cases, according to four people familiar with the decision. The move, likely to be announced as soon as this week, would call for people to receive an additional shot eight months after they are fully vaccinated, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a decision not yet made public.

[ucbalumnus]

@EmptyNestSoon2

PS although just the idea of capacity restrictions and no parties makes me VERY sad…

The Provincetown outbreak occurred in what was probably most similar to a giant fraternity party… although there are no longer fraternities at Amherst, there were probably similar parties pre-COVID-19. However, <1% of the (mostly vaccinated breakthrough) Provincetown cases were hospitalized, and no one died.

So parties at a highly vaccinated college are likely to cause outbreaks of relatively minor cases of COVID-19 that are likely to be more of a public relations problem for the college than a health problem for most students – although medically vulnerable students could be at high risk if there are now lots of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic spreaders as a result.

Outbreaks at less vaccinated colleges obviously have increased risk of serious cases when those with neither vaccination nor previous infection get it.

@EmptyNestSoon2

PPS and the fact that close contacts aren’t allowed to eat in the dining hall may makes kids reluctant to name their friends as contacts, as they may not want to be the reason their buddies have to eat alone in their rooms. I wonder if it’s better to not impose such a restriction, but to keep contact tracing in place so those kids can be informed and scale back their contacts on their own based on personal responsibility. Tough call.

Whenever the result of testing positive or being in contact with someone who tests positive appears punitive (mandatory isolation or quarantine, missing classes, and being homeless if the college kicks them out of the dorm without providing other housing), expect many students to do their best to get tested as little as possible (ignoring any minor coughs, fevers, or other symptoms) and avoid reporting their friends to contact tracing.

[Twoin18]

@Twoin18

As an update to this, S is fine. After his apparent exposure (Day 0) he appears to have passed it on to another vaccinated friend on Day 2. He had symptoms on the night of Day 4, did a rapid test that was positive on the morning of Day 5, got the confirming PCR test result the next morning. His roommate left on the morning of Day 5 and is still negative on both rapid and PCR tests.

As far as quarantine housing goes, his roommate was offered a temporary on campus room for the week (until S’s 10 days from symptoms are up). But whether that will still be an option for others once term starts is unclear.

Now roommate (also vaccinated) has tested positive, because in quarantine housing he has to do a rapid test every day. He was negative until now, six days after last seeing S and is still completely asymptomatic, so wouldn’t have been detected otherwise. Quite plausible he caught it elsewhere since this seems like a very long incubation period.

And just got a notice today that younger S was exposed (but not defined as a close contact, ie within six feet for more than 15 mins, so we assume someone elsewhere in the same classroom) on the first day of high school. But for vaccinated kids there’s no testing required even for close contacts unless you are symptomatic.

[bennty]

And here comes Israel to be the wet blanket on the booster party:

A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta

I’ll tell you what, nobody’s gonna give a rat’s patoot how I’m teaching, because we’re going to have some dead roommates around here in freedomland. University president laid rhetorical groundwork yesterday for walking back the in-person semester. Everything’s very “we’re here for our students, in person rah, no concessions” till you listen to about every third sentence, which is all “we reserve the right to change our terms of service.”

It’s always a shock to remember, when they talk about people 60+, that I’m not that far off anymore.

[Mindfully]

@vpa2019

Just heard that D’S school has no plans to provide remote learning of any kind to students that have to isolate/quarantine because of a positive Covid test.

This sound like bad leadership. Not to plan for campus outbreaks as Covid levels climb once again is a disservice to the students.

[homerdog]

The way it’s been explained to us for our D’s small LAC is that remote learning was never the way they intended to go forward. Professors will make sure to keep kids up to date on what’s going on in class just like they would if someone was out sick with something else. Depending on the class, though, it would be nice to have the lecture recorded or live streamed. S19 at Bowdoin does have some classes that are mostly discussion so that wouldn’t make sense for those.

Our D21 and S19 are not at Amherst but, from prior posts, I can see that they will start re-testing kids in isolation on day six and if they are negative two days in a row, they are done. So I’m hoping that isolation would be seven days and that’s one week of class. Not great but better than ten days.

Bowdoin never zoomed kids into classrooms that were meeting in person so they aren’t set up for that. Not sure about Colgate. At our middle school, they did zoom kids in on a giant screen if they were home isolating or in quarantine and that was a giant distraction. Plus, I doubt they even got much out of it. Not a lot of traditional lectures going on in class and group work is hard to accomplish with the kids on zoom. Teachers mainly taught to the class and would try to take a minute to ask the zoom kids if they had any questions.

[RosePetal35]

Amherst College, which had one of the most conservative reopening plans of any school last year, is not doing remote learning for students in quarantine/isolation either; class deans will help students communicate with professors to keep up with class work. However, it is a college with a vaccine mandate for students, faculty, and staff; and very few students have received exemptions.

[RosePetal35]

Actually, “to-go meals” actually refers to any meal eaten outside the indoors dining hall. Students eating in the large tents outside will have technically received “to-go meals”; at last night’s town hall, they said that all meals will be available “to-go”. It sounds like the only difference will be that students dining in will receive standard dining hall plates and silverware, while students eating to-go will be given plastic cutlery and some sort of to-go container. And you are free to eat with other students outside, you just can’t eat indoors and have to wear a mask everywhere if a close contact received a positive COVID test.

[Mwfan1921]

Did they say the % of students/prof/staff that are vaccinated? Any communication re: Fall sports?

[RosePetal35]

They are having a standard fall sports season, but still working out what (if any) precautions need to be taken for games (i.e. will players need to wear masks, what is the policy on guests, etc.). I am not sure of the exact proportion of fully vaccinated students, faculty, and staff; but I know that in July, 97% of students living on-campus were fully vaccinated (99% at least partially vaccinated) and 93% of faculty and staff members were fully vaccinated (95% at least partially vaccinated). I know there are some incoming international students who are unable to get vaccinated because they do not have access to the vaccine in their home countries, however, these students (unless they have religious or medical exemptions) are required to be vaccinated right after they arrive on-campus.

[bennty]

@Twoin18

Now roommate (also vaccinated) has tested positive, because in quarantine housing he has to do a rapid test every day. He was negative until now, six days after last seeing S and is still completely asymptomatic, so wouldn’t have been detected otherwise. Quite plausible he caught it elsewhere since this seems like a very long incubation period.

Did he go straight from the dorm to quarantine housing?