This is true in big cities with a lot of universities and PhD/master’s flotsam. It is not, unfortunately, true in great big parts of the country, where you just don’t find a lot of people hanging around with advanced degrees so anxious to teach that they’re willing to cut their earning capacity by half or more to do it. We routinely struggle to staff our classrooms. In some places, they have to turn to advanced undergrads who’ve done well to teach freshman/sophomore classes.
If you’ve been near a university in the last year, you have.
When I was hired, a very senior staffer told me she hoped I could be a bridge between faculty and staff. Willy-nilly, I am. I’ve got all the ego and grants capacity of faculty; I teach, do research, publish, etc. But I don’t have their commitment to institutions, I’m capable of life outside universities, and I talk a lot with lots of staff, up and down the line. Staff will in general not tell faculty about problems they’re having because it’s not worth the trouble: you’re likely to take it wrong, especially if you’re from a generation that views admission of weakness as “can’t do the job”. Also, they’re managing you, topping from bottom, and don’t want to mess that up and make more work for themselves in the process. Fortunately, you guys don’t pay them much attention. A thing I’d recommend, though, right about now: respect. Respect them now. Cut out some of that upstairs/downstairs game you play. Go for a socially-leveling Blitz mode: you’re all in it together, and try to mean it. You can’t afford the disgruntlement and neither can the students and families who’re trying very hard to have a functional on-campus year. Non-university jobs do exist, and they won’t be treated like second-class citizens there. Really think about that one. That is the thing I hear most anger about at the moment from people working at a pretty good range of institutions: respect. From faculty, the lack of it. Normally it’s a background thing but it’s right out there after the last year. I’m surprised by the brightness of it, haven’t seen it like that before.
It’d be nifty, but even if they stopped throwing so much money at admin (and I’m guessing they have to or at this point…cripes. I was on a hiring committee for a dean recently and everyone was shocked that the guy we chose actually went for it. He’s actually smart and good and productive. Collects awesome students, too, had one in a class. But I’m sure the money put a great big fat thumb on the scale) – even if they did stop throwing the money, it wouldn’t start paying real instructional-staff salaries. Too many people. This probably isn’t the thread for getting into it, but it’d take some serious money-moving.
I have to say, I’m not really a believer in “the cliff”. I read Grawe’s book when my boss gave it to me, which put me miles ahead of every presentation-giver I heard talking about it afterwards, and I describe it as “lightly racist”. Dude is an economist looking at about four variables in the rearview and assuming that them durn Mexicans don’t believe in eddycation so much. He’s essentially saying that the white middle class is drying up some, which is true, but doesn’t seem to have noticed that the rest of the world also wants education, and that we seem to be adding jillions of humans all the time. But you’ll get this with economists. Now, do I think that people will start figuring out ways of not spending $100-300K to get from 18 to 22? Or to get into a new field? Yes. Yes, I do. And covid is making it happen much, much faster than it might have otherwise. What you see here on cc, where the main fury is about losing the opportunity for cotillion socialization and initiation into the money and power clubs – I mean, you’re talking about clubs. If this goes on long enough, rich people will find other clubs. That’d be a disaster for a whole sector of higher ed. I do trust the most central power-elite university clubs to maintain themselves, that is after all their speciality and they’re super well-equipped, but the others will have serious trouble.
But I don’t see a crash in the number of people looking for an education past high school. Not just a vocational education, either. An education. There’s a whole lot of new people, and while the shine’s off American universities, my inbox says it’s not off that much.