Pfizer recently announced they completed enrollment of the 12-15 age group in their trial. I don’t know how long it will take to analyze data, package it and send to FDA for approval.
Moderna recently said that enrollment in their 12-17 year old group is going slowly.
No word from any mfr (AFAIK) about starting trials in under 12 year olds.
These known variants and unknown variants likely to come (or already here). We think the two vaccines may be effective against some of them, but we don’t know for certain. We also don’t know how effective they are (and they’re likely to be less effective against the new variants).
^^^There’s just no chance this will happen in real life. There could be any unknown virus out there at any time - people will not continue at this pace of restrictions if numbers fall with vaccination. Our college students won’t either. So colleges that insist on online classes in the fall when students are living normal lives outside of the classroom will LOSE students in droves.
Israel published some great info today…1 week after second Pfizer dose, infection rate was super low in the vaccinated (0.044%).
Good point! I think the UK variant was first found 09/20, and the alarm was sounded in 12/20. We know that variant (plus the S. African and the homegrown CA variant, probably the Brazil variant, etc.) is in the U.S. We just don’t know how widespread because the U.S. doesn’t do nearly the sequencing that the UK does. Yet, still, cases are declining…I think we are in the lull before the variant-fueled surge. The eye of the storm. Because of the vaccination snafus, I don’t think we are going to win the race against the variants.
Note that another confounding event was the season of indoor family gatherings in November and December that were the likely drivers of an explosion of cases then and shortly thereafter.
Sure, but I do think this kind of messaging (stay inside until we know everything about everything) can depress the demand in the vaccine-hesitant group. If you are afraid of the health risks of the vaccine itself and everyone has to stay inside anyway, why not wait longer? That’s obviously not a problem now, but it will be at some point.
I don’t know what the answer is. My parents know that there is still some risk even after being vaccinated. After a year of being mostly isolated, I suspect they will take it.
I certainly hope, and I think, that the vaccines will finally help us put the pandemic behind us soon. Before we can put it away, however, our collective behaviors will have an impact on how quickly it happens and on whether there will be any hiccups along the way.
Of course, the “stay inside” messaging may be a problem – going outdoors while socially distanced is generally low risk, and likely far safer than the indoor gatherings that were likely the cause of the explosion of cases over the winter.
@homerdog - I have a sister with a PhD in comparative toxicology. She spent her career in the pharmaceutical development business and shepherded several molecules through the FDA approval process. She watched both Pfizer and Moderna presentations to the FDA for their EUA. She was extremely impressed with the overall efficacy of both vaccines and the thoroughness of the studies. The only hold up to full FDA approval is the long term studies. The virus has not been around long enough to have 1, 2 or 3 year follow-up studies. When those studies are completed, she is confident both vaccines will receive full approval.
In December a Pfizer exec said they plan to file for full FDA approval in April 2021. Vaccine data requirements are different than those for drug treatments.
If true, that does mean some schools might require vaccines by the fall, assuming there is an ample supply.
If it’s estimated that 1/3 of eligible people are clamoring to get the vaccine, 1/3 are hesitant, and 1/3 are against it, I sure hope something convinces the hesitant and some of the against groups to get vaccinated.
If it’s not being able to get back to seeing people and enjoying life, I’m not sure what it would be.
If we can get the 2/3 vaccinated by the summer, the 1/3 that don’t want it can deal with getting the virus. We won’t have herd immunity if we don’t get to 75% but for those of us who get the vaccine the chance of serious complications or death is almost nil with the vaccine. So were not going to accept restrictions because some people won’t take the vaccine.
You’re assumimg those people are following the restrictions. If they don’t think Covid is enough of an issue to comply with masking and social distancing they may not think the vaccine is necessary.
(After vaccine general availability…)
The remaining issue would be those who truly cannot get the vaccine for medical reasons and therefore will be vulnerable to COVID-19 if vaccine-refusers are numerous enough to prevent herd immunity. In that case, there will be no “back to normal” for them if they want to avoid COVID-19.
This can be a problem for such people who are students at a school or college where there is no herd immunity. Will they have to continue doing distance education when the rest of the school or college goes back to in-person education (that most people are clamoring for)?
UCB, I have been trying to pay attention to who might fall into the group who cannot get the vaccine due to medical reasons, and I’m coming up with none or barely any. My oncologist assures me that it’s fine for cancer patients despite low immune systems, and I haven’t heard that people with other immune disorders have been told not to take vaccine. My child has an epipen and dangerous allergies, but I’ve heard that people like her can still take the vaccine, but should do so at a medical facility where they can be carefully watched (although between us, I’m glad we have many months of watching other allergic-people getting the vaccine before she’ll be invited to take it!). So is there a large population of people (other than children, currently) who are ineligible for the vaccine? (I’m not saying there isn’t, but I have been scouring the news and not coming up with much).
ETA: actually, I think I heard pregnant people might consider holding off? but then I would think that’s not a reason for the whole world to have to be careful; it’s a reason for them to be careful, just as I never expected the world to change their behavior when I went through chemo. I think if we’re talking about <5% of the population, then it probably makes sense for those people to modify their behavior rather than asking the 95% to modify.
As for the kids on campuses who can’t get vaccine, I would think the “campus bubble” could reach herd immunity, if the vast, vast majority of professors, workers, and students are eligible for and take the vaccine. So covid shouldn’t really be spreading on those campuses (especially, as it appears likely that the vaccines are sterilizing vaccines), should it? I would think campuses would not be very high risk then?
NEWER edit: actually, I just watched the covid press conference for my state, and people with immune disorders AND pregnant people are among those on the accelerated list! So I am yet to hear of anyone besides kids (and the possibility of people with extreme allergies) who is ineligible. I’m genuinely asking if there are groups who can’t get the vaccine?
Ugh. Two cases of the South Africa strain have been confirmed in South Carolina.
From Fauci interview today:
This particular strain “troubles me,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
“When you look at the vaccines that we have available now, the neutralizing antibodies that they induce … when you measure that against the South African isolate, it is diminished by multifold in its ability to cover it,” Fauci told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on Thursday. “It’s still within the range of what you predict would be protective. But I take no great comfort in that.”
Williams just announced that Spring commencement will be in person and that Spring semester will start in person in February as planned.
Nice news, but tempered by the announcement that families will not be allowed to attend graduation in person (which I completely understand). 
Definitely nice news (other than the lack of family), also, the article notes that Massachusetts reported 3,320 COVID-19 cases and 84 COVID deaths yesterday alone. However, that represents a 36 percent drop in cases over a 14-day period, coming off of a statewide peak in early January.
I would like to know this, too. As much as society in general appears to care about or protect the most vulnerable among us, I wouldn’t expect it to be any different to protect those who can’t be vaccinated for medical reasons.