I have a family member who has gone into anaphylactic shock from prior vaccinations. Plus tons of severe allergies to numerous things. Her immunologist told her to hold off on the covid vaccine for now.
Maybe Iâm misunderstanding your point, but I thought the purpose of large-scale vaccinations was to achieve herd immunity. The occasional individual who canât get the vaccine for medical reasons will be more protected in that situation than they are currently w/o the significant alterations and restrictions to their day-to-day life. They can likely go back to ânormalâ living along with everyone else unless they are homebound for other reasons. Vaccinating the many and skipping a few would still achieve the desired public health outcome.
3 Likes
That is prudent advice since the probability of a life-threatening reaction to the vaccine likely exceeds the probability of an adverse outcome from Covid. Hopefully infection rates will fall so they will benefit along with everyone else. Most are being vaccinated to help themselves, but there is still a public benefit to doing so.
You guys, I need a boost in my thinking about how things will be for colleges (and everything) in the fall. While I am completely optimistic about us crushing Pandemic #1 (existing covid including the UK variant), I am now just sick about the sequel, the South African variant and our vaccines only being 50% effective against that (and then the possibility of more variants that vaccines are even less effective against). I need someone to remind me that the FDA hurdle for an effective vaccine was only 50%, that if thatâs all Pfizer & Moderna had announced in the fall, we would have been âcontentâ to have a vaccine that shows a level of effectiveness, that we will eventually get out of this horrible situation. That we can leverage the mRNA platform to make adaptations to our vaccines, etc. I am just so bummed about this news (I saw Novovax and J&J are both approximately 50% effective vs S. A. variant, and it sounds like M/Pf probably will be in that range). I would love if someone can chime in with a logical reason to not get too upset about the 50% effectiveness, please! And obviously this directly relates to colleges, because if things arenât under control then college life will not be getting back to normal, but if you want to respond just generally and not specifically regarding colleges, then you can meet me in the âInside Medicineâ thread. You know Iâve been a real believer that we could have Pandemic #1 under control and normal college life once vaccines were widespread, so this new pessimism Iâm feeling is a new experience for me 
2 Likes
I agree with all of this, Iâm also finding it difficult to be optimistic about college in the fall. I think if fall is not back to normal D19 will take a leave, but S21 says he is going to college regardless.
Another important piece of the puzzle that no one is addressing (probably because we donât know yet) is whether these variants are sufficiently different that people who have had covid can be infected with themâŠso more like flu than chicken pox, just to take two examples.
I am also concerned that if and when approved in the US, people say no thanks to the JNJ and/or Novavax vaccines and say theyâll just wait for one of the MRNA vaccines.
4 Likes
I am wondering how easily and quickly the platform can be changed for the new South African strain and used as a booster. Does the ânew variant boosterâ have to go through the FDA?
I was thinking the same thing. I wonder how this would affect roll out. Also, I apologize, I have not really researched this. Is there any info on if JNJ or Norovax decrease transmission?
My understanding is that it will take at least 4-6 weeks to develop with the mRNA technology (and longer with other technologies). Any booster shot would have to be approved.
2 Likes
I answered in inside medicine thread!
1 Like
I think weâll be able to control the virus, but not fully defeat it, because I donât think weâll reach full herd immunity with not insignificant portion of the population reluctant to be vaccinated, even assuming the vaccines are fully effective. The virus will adapt, like all other viruses. Variants are likely to be more prevalent than we realized at this point. Itâs also highly unlikely that thereâre only UK variant, South Africa variant, Brazil variant, German variant, but no major US variants. Thereâre more infections in the US, so the virus has more opportunities to mutate here. We just didnât look for them.
3 Likes
If a less effective vaccine is available now, then one can get it now, then later get the more effective vaccine later when it is available.
1 Like
I believe the California variant has already emerged. More variants will undoubtedly arise in the next few years.
1 Like
I think that within a year or two we will get to a place where we treat healthy under 50s with covid the same as we currently do with moderate influenza. IE they take a week off from work/college and rest at home but no other measures barring medical complications. Way of life generally returns to pre pandemic, concerts and big sports events back on with crowds etc.
All these restrictions have been about protecting the vulnerable. We havenât really inherently worried about the 18 year olds who got away with asymptotic/mild cases. Soon hopefully mass vaccination means that transmission to the vulnerable will be reduced and the ones unlucky to still get it will be less likely to die/go on a ventilator. So we can relax most of infection control rules and target them only to high risk groups.
Covid vaccine will probably become a yearly service, updated with the latest mutations, but like the flu jab, eventually most people wonât bother to take it.
4 Likes
Medical complications that last beyond clearing the virus are common, even in younger people. Various studies have found that 10% to 87% of people have after-effects. Of the seven people I have known to have had COVID-19, at least two of them (both under 50, one in their 20s) have after-effects involving lungs or heart.
The question, related to this board, is do 18-22s want the complete pre pandemic college experience enough to risk those potential after affects?
Perhaps a related question is, are people, including college students, aware of the risk of long term after-effects and disabilities? Seems that most of the focus of COVID-19 risk is on death rates (quite high for older people, but very low for younger people), which may give younger people misplaced confidence in the idea that âCOVID-19 is no big dealâ (for them).
3 Likes
Or perhaps young people realize that there is no guarantee next year will be better, as there could be a more deadly variant,and they may as well get on with their lives.
3 Likes
I think deliberately or not, this is what will happen.
The vaccines are great because they will finally flatten the curve. I am sure there is also great research focus on improved treatments. Coronavirus is here to stay.
2 Likes
Also, I wonder if current 9th graders and below will even have the same college experience demands. They have forcibly had to adapt to home learning . I suspect that the tippy top students are thriving with it. On this board it has been very common for parents to talk about their kids self studying AP courses online for years. Self motivation is inherent in high achievers
K-12 wonât be vaccinated totally until probably Fall 2022 at least at this point. What if those kids get so used to it that in the future the Top 20 colleges will have to provide â flexibility â through some online courses.
Remember that many or most college studentsâ âcollege experienceâ is commuting to a local college (much like commuting to high school), not the residential college experience that is focused on in these forums. It is likely that the perceived difference between the online / distance college experience versus the commuter college experience is smaller than the perceived difference between the online / distance college experience and the residential college experience.
Also, those looking for the residential college experience may be more likely to be from higher SES backgrounds and therefore more used to (their parentsâ) money mitigating any problems that they may encounter, or (their parents) complaining loudly and being heard when a problem that money cannot fix presents itself.
3 Likes