Fair point. They are having a slower decline from a lower peak.
Could not disagree more. There are a number of states in the US that had less restrictive measures that saw similar or even better results than states with very restrictive measures. In my mind, that means âlockdownsâ are not the variable that drives infection rates.
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Actually it appears that CA has a very very infectious hereto unknown variant. It was recently discovered. Turns out thereâs a reason why they werenât able to get on top of it using the regular guidelines.
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See several notes on the CA variant as the real reason why CA wasnât able to get ahead of the cases.
To my point, not sure the lockdowns make a difference. The variable in our case is this variant, maybe. I have been burned a few too many times with âbreaking science newsâ that was later shown to be incorrect.
Some restrictions probably do matter (e.g. requiring social distancing and masks in the grocery store, which is likely effective, easily observed/enforced, and has high compliance due to âstranger dangerâ perception), but others probably do not now (e.g. âdonât visit your friends and relatives indoorsâ, which is not easily observed/enforced, and no one really wants to enforce, and is widely not complied with due to lack of âstranger dangerâ â those who comply probably would do so anyway in the absence of such a rule).
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I agree. To return to more of the focus of the thread - I believe schools in CA can be safely opened with some precautions in place. I do not think tons of testing in the K-12 population is warranted. Masks, yes; sanitation stations, yes; distancing, 3â or 6â; physical barriers in the class, maybe.
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I would agree if you add: vaccinations (for those who want it) for the teachers/staff.
Depends on the situation and the school (including the buildings). Schools where each classroom has plenty of windows that can be opened are more likely to be able to do in-person safely than those where many classrooms have no windows (yes, such schools exist). Distancing, even at only 3 feet instead of 6 feet, may not be possible for full in-person at some normally-crowded schools. One size does not fit all.
The schools also need to know what they want to do if a kid does bring COVID-19 into the school. Kids are great at sharing viruses even if they are unlikely to get sick from them â if they share viruses in school, then they can bring them back to their families⊠Kids sharing viruses may not be doing so as much in regulated and supervised classrooms with virus-paranoid teachers, but then you have recess and lunch periods.
states have wide differences in population sizes and demographics. Equal comparison cant be made. I would expect rural Wisconsin to have lower rate than New York City but that doesnât mean that NYCs policies where inherently less affective because of different base lines.
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Whatâs interesting is that things can change in a short time⊠Portugal had very good results all through the pandemic until November 2020, when the UK variant and holiday fun mixed. Schools were open since May 2020 but closed this last.month due to crazy UK variant spread.
It all changes in an instant. Strick lockdowns in Portugal worked - both in Spring and this past one, but it was too late⊠This lockdown happened after UK Covid was everywhere. But now cases are way down, quickly.
Selective regional lockdowns work only if the movement of people into and out of these regions are restricted. If not, viruses would just follow the movement of these people to other regions, and be back again when the rules are relaxed. We never seem to learn the lessons.
A look at some university graduation plans for 2021:
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The data from this forum is that rich private colleges full of predominantly upper middle class adults are testing biweekly. Funny how itâs ok for the privileged to get tested to get a luxury residential experience but itâs â unnecessary â for low socioeconomic k-12 kids who may live with grandparents, have parent(s) who canât work from home and go to large schools to also have that resource available to them.
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Wow, thatâs a low blow. I have never felt testing at colleges was necessary to the level of many on this forum. A disagree with those that feel there should be mandatory testing twice a week. The âscienceâ tells us the 18-45 demo is the most likely positive test rate. It also tells us the k-12 (especially the k-6) are at very low risk to themselves and others.
I am quite sure Florida has a number of communities that would meet your definition, yet they have pulled it off.
Might want to come down from the ivory tower of judgement.
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@msdynamite85âs post didnât come off judgy to me at all. Just pointing out the very real inequities of allocation of testing resources (which also extends to vaccine access).
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If testing is about protecting the vulnerable, why donât we require testing for the flu in schools? Not everyone gets a flu vaccine. We know that the greatest threat from the flu is to the young and the elderly. Yet, during flu season schools remain open with no restrictions.
What do we know now about COVID? It does not spread as rapidly in younger people. I believe there is scientific consensus that youth do not spread it readily to adults. Yet, in many states âits too dangerous to open schoolsâ without vaccines or testing. The US mortality rate for COVID is still unknown (1.7% if you assume positive case count are the only people who have had COVID, 23.8 MM positive with ~500k deaths). I suspect it will eventually be in the same range of seasonal flu.
We do know that the COVID mortality rate in the elderly is very high. That is why they are one of the top priorities to get the vaccine. Now that many are vaccinated, the argument of custodial grandparent risk is moot.
Unfortunately, vaccine shortages have meant that many 75+ year old people who want the vaccine have not been able to get it before their areas have opened up vaccine to younger groups who will add numerous more people competing for scarce vaccine (making it more difficult for the 75+ year old people who have not gotten the vaccine already to get the vaccine now).
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There is no consensus. Indeed, this study at https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30981-6/fulltext says that âWithin households, children and adolescents were less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection but were more infectious than older individuals.â
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