And then there are these three -Three studies highlight low COVID risk of in-person school | CIDRAP
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Agreed, the vaccine distribution is a mess. I would really like to get one, but I will be much further down the list. As usual, California seems to have challenges. Politicians thinking they know way more than they really do. Not sure is you stayed in state. I’ve lived here for over 50 years.
Looks like these studies looked at transmission in school, which is slightly different from transmission at home if kids bring the virus home (as the other study looked at).
It is certainly possible that a school with sufficient mitigation (distancing, masks, windows open, keeping kids away from each other during recess and lunch) can have a low in-school transmission rate, while those kids who do manage to get the virus can easily transmit it to others in their households.
The challenges apply to all states due to the extreme vaccine shortage. Even states or entities that get the vaccine out quickly do not have enough for everyone, and those getting the vaccine out quickly are less strict about age or other prioritization.
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We don’t test for the flu because vaccines are widely available, the flu is not a novel virus in the same way covid is, and the flu is less deadly than covid. Personally, I think more people should get the flu vaccine to protect the vulnerable. But that’s another topic, I guess.
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Plus there is Tamiflu/antivirals ready at any pharmacy if you do come down with the flu. The equivalent does not exist yet for covid.
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My point was that when the duct settles, I predict we will find out that COVID was not more deadly than the flu. And agreed, that’s a different topic and an answer the epidemiologists will get to work on.
I don’t get it. It’s already been multiple times more deadly than the flu, as evidenced by the death toll. We are not going to look back and say, oh yeah, more people die of the flu in a year than people of covid did in 2020. The numbers are what they are. Will vaccines help with that in the future? Sure. But it’s definitely more deadly than the flu.
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Fair point. When the vaccine challenges get resolved, I suspect, as you allude to, it will be similar. I did not consider the apples to oranges comparison - virus with vaccine v. virus without (but now we do).
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Regarding community spread, School districts are at the mercy of several variables that they do not have direct control of. Lets compare two hypothetical elementary schools in very different areas of the country who each have the name number of students.
School A: 100% of parents work from home= low household risk of spread from a work place
School B : 100% of parents are front line essential workers= high risk
School A : 100% of kids live in suburbs of spacious detached houses= low risk of spread from a family member or a neighbour.
School B: 100% live in overcrowded apartment blocks= high risk
School A 100% of households get their groceries delivered and have a car = low risk of spread from essential trips.
School B: 100% live in food deserts and travel by public transport = high risk
School A: 100% of households live near a beach or a park = low risk from social gatherings
School B: 100% have limited access to outdoor recreational space, high risk due to indoor gatherings more common.
I think that school districts who are safely opening in person may also have low risk factors for community spread in the first place. It might not be useful to point to how a rural school district is “ open” to argue why are a different area in different circumstances should too.
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This is unfortunate.
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There are some public high schools here (IL) that are back 100% and doing it successfully. Our school is so far behind everyone that we’ll be lucky to be back in person in the fall but looks like we’ll be back in some capacity after Spring Break and the high school I work at is back at 50% and increasing that to more in person after Spring Break. We have had no issues or out breaks at our school. They have optional testing 2x/week. The high school my son attends is having mandatory testing 2x/week for kids that attend in person and all teachers are also vaccinated in our district and where I work the district is finally arranging for those who haven’t been able to get the vaccine to get one if they want it. It’s great to be in person and once people come in they do realize it’s not as scary if things are done safely and rules are followed, which is key.
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This unfortunately is happening at every college. My daughter goes to a school where in the fall they tested everyone 2x/week. They had great success but after looking at the data and where they had small outbreaks, this semester they’re testing certain groups 3x/week. Kids signed a contract but that doesn’t mean squat to some of these kids. There was a big outbreak when kids returned in February, even though the school had good measures in place, it only took 1 kid to come to campus with Covid and boy how it spread like wildfire because of that 1 kid. His fraternity, his business fraternity, a girl he was intimate with and then that caused her sorority and others. How did it spread from him so quickly? Because those frats and then sororities were having indoor events/meetings in off campus apartments. Not even at the actually greek houses. Anyway, the school is so amazing at contract tracing within about 10 days they got the cases back down to 0 hundred of kids were quarantined in the hotels the school set aside, and things are now normalized with a .06% positivity rate and more than 6k tests done a day. It has been great. All schools unfortunately are not able to do this or those that are, are not.
As for prior discussions regarding requiring the vaccine. I do believe that schools will require it. This same school above required the flu shot as part of the contract this year. Some kids could get a waiver but you had to apply for it, etc. but it’s no different than colleges that require the meningitis vaccine, which is what my other daughter’s school required. They can do what they want and if a kid doesn’t like it or want to follow the rules, then they can go elsewhere. It’s just like when you enroll your kid in Kindergarten and they need to show proof of certain vaccinations. This is soon going to be life as we know it. Even as adults we will ultimately have to prove vaccination to go to sporting events, concerts, etc.
The good news is while there is still some vaccine hesitancy, there is a lot less than before. I just saw yesterday now we are up to 78% wanting the vaccine. So that is huge! I’m hopeful my daughter can get it at her school by the end of this year. One of mine has already gotten it at hers which I am so thankful for since Covid is rampant there.
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More college graduation plans:
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Really interesting how campuses so geographically close to each other came up with such divergent plans.
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That page mentions a (commuter) student’s concern about bringing virus home to an immune-compromised relative, even after presumed vaccination of the student, if the other students are not all vaccinated.
Perhaps it would be useful to watch the news on ongoing studies about whether the vaccine stops asymptomatic transmission, since that is a current unknown that is keeping some people more cautious about how safe it will be after vaccination.
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We’re nearly halfway through the semester and the Covid positivity rate is better than I expected at D’s college. Biweekly testing along with contact tracing and harsh penalties (e.g. student ID deactivation, suspension) for breaking the campus compact has kept positivity rates low. Aside from a spike that occurred in late January, the positivity rate has been less than 1%. D also theorizes the campus community may have reached herd immunity given the number of students who received the vaccine because they are considered frontline workers or work in on-campus hospitals and labs. There is currently no timeline for vaccinating the rest of the student population; the administration says there is fifty percent chance of students receiving the vaccine by May.
Campus life has started to return. The gym and libraries are open by appointment. D and her roommates have expanded their pod to include another triple in their building. They cook and watch movies or play games together. Although campus life is not as lively as in the past—gone are the traditional celebrations of class unity like Hey Day—it is nice for D to be back among her peers and experience some level of normalcy.
The downside of a Covid-restricted campus has been the workload. Professors have significantly increased the number of weekly assignments and quizzes as though to compensate for the lack of in-person instruction. Professors are even assigning work during breaks after the administration explicitly said no assignments would be due on those days and that students were to use the time for self-care and community engagement.
My D would love to come home and recharge, but she is a plane ride away and the university is discouraging travel. Even in normal times, the college is a pressure cooker and mental/physical health often suffers at the expense of psets. I really wish the administration was more attuned to the needs of the student body and did more to encourage wellness and self-care.
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S20’s school - U of Alabama - announced in person classes in the fall today.
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That’s great! But I still want to know when these schools announce that everything else will be more normalized. It’s not that hard to say classes in person. It’s all of the sports, clubs, social stuff that we need answers on.
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i was thinking the same. kids are getting used to remote. . . . i’m guessing they’d much rather have the social side of things open up. my son was enchanted by what he saw at college - the soccer intramurals, date parties, concerts, sports - all of those fun things. He’s ready, like everyone else. I think he’s seeing a few advantages (convenience factors) with remote.
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