And if you only look at the past few years like this instead of using long term trends with the average ot median of several years, you don’t see how large the year-to-year variance in acceptance rate is for the small LACs you’ve emphasized. Continuing with the Kenyon example, historical acceptance rates for Kenyon are below, Looking at the longer historical trend like this and seeing the toggle back and forth between increasing and decreasing acceptance rate each couple years, I think few would predict a notable increase in acceptance rate for next year’s class. Instead many would predict a notable decrease that brings the acceptance rate closer to the long term trend line. Rates for 2011-19 are IPEDS. 2021 is CDS. Press releases and other sources may differ by 1-2%.
Class of 2011 – 29%
Class of 2013 – 39%
Class of 2015 – 33%
Class of 2017 – 38%
Class of 2019 – 26%
Class of 2021 – 34%
While there has been a decrease in acceptance rate trend at Grinell, particularly in recent years, again the bulk of the variation was year-to-year variance, at a smaller college. Specific numbers from the period in which your son reviewed the college and applied are below.
Class of 2011 – 45%
Class of 2013 – 34%
Class of 2015 – 45%
Class of 2017 – 35%