If the priority groups are well defined, then it should not be too hard to estimate how many are vaccinated and not vaccinated. However, determining how many of the unvaccinated are voluntary refusers versus those who have been trying but unable to get a vaccine due to shortages can be more difficult, unless they wait for when no one else is signing up in the current priority group before moving on to the next priority group (but then waiting that long will get complaints about delays from the next priority group).
Basically, if you move through priority groups too quickly, some in the earlier priority groups will be left behind because they could not get a vaccine due to shortages (usually, these are the underprivileged members of the priority groups). But if you move through priority groups too slowly, the vaccine rollout is slowed, with complaints from those in the next priority groups. Really, this is a political decision ā a shortage means that someone will be unsatisfied, and the decision is based on who that will be.
CDC COVID Data Tracker indicates (as of March 8) that Colorado has received only about 35k vaccines per 100k adults, or enough to fully vaccinate only 17.5% of the adult population (or slightly more if there are some J&J in recent distribution). About 28k have been administered, and 23% of the adult population has gotten at least one dose, and about 13% of the population has gotten two doses.
That still looks like a shortage, compared to the approximately half of the population who wants to get the vaccine as soon as possible. Other states are mostly similar in vaccine distribution and administration.
I am seeing this here in GA. Teachers started to be eligible today. One county will be setting aside vaccines for teachers starting a week from Thursday. I would put lots of money that most of those teachers will have been vaccinated through other means before that happens. I was able to get an appointment for my D who works in a school for today. Also over the weekend Kaiser had about 6K doses to any teachers. So all of a sudden this county in 10 days will not be seeing the signups they think they will have , as those teachers will be vaccinated by then, from Kroger, CVS, Walgreens, the mass sites in downtown Atl, etc. Give it 2 more weeks and anyone who wants a vaccine will be able to easily get one. GA has only opened to parents who have children with illnesses, but I bet they will open to others with comorbidities and those 55+ plus real soon.
Posted info for Colorado last week was that there would be approx 250k doses last week, then 275k, then 350k, then 400k+ doses in the next weeks. They werenāt expecting a lot of J&J, but my friend did get it at National Jewish Hospital, so there is some in the state.
My group was first eligible last Friday and all my same age group friends got vaccinated over the weekend. I donāt know anyone who hasnāt been able to get an appointment. Yes, we are a middle class group with cars that can get us to those appointments, but there have been several clinics downtown too. I think that was because the governor cut the 1b3 group from 3.5 million to just a million and put the other 2.5 million (mostly restaurant workers and front line younger people) into a new group 1b4, which will go live on March 21. There was not a big crash on the computer systems and we didnāt spend hours online waiting for an appointment like they did in CT where they added 3 million eligible people all at once.
In Jan and Feb, there was a lot of searching for appointments (the 70+ groups, then the 65+ and teachers groups) but not any more. A big group this time was ag workers, and their employers held clinics at the meat packing plants over the weekend so they werenāt competing for appointments with the rest of the group. Grocery store workers are also in this group, but many grocery stores have pharmacies, so they are taking care of their own.
For my own vaccine, I went to a public health clinic. Walk in, there were about 8 stations, sat down, gave name to the ālaptopā person, got shot, they handed me the vaccination card, left. It took about 5 minutes max. No waiting in line. They only do the vaccinations on Friday, Sat, Sun.
Iāve been helping people under 65 with health conditions make appointments in NY. The NY State site almost always says, āNo appointments availableā for all centers except the ones upstate. But, if you refresh your screen constantly, appointments pop up every few minutes. When they pop up, you have to move fast to click on the date, and then on the time before anyone else does. By practicing this for about an hour, I got fast enough to snag appointments. The soonest ones (in the next couple days) pop up the least often, and are the hardest to get. However, they are available, especially at the Aqueduct Racetrack and Javits Center. Westchester and Stony Brook also keep releasing a few every 10 min or so.
This woman made a detailed, clear video about how to get appointments this way. She shows the NY State site first, and then two NYC sites:
āthere is no way of knowing what proportion of unvaccinated people in a given group still want a vaccineā - Well one hint would be the fast fill up for vaccination registration. And the public angst. I was so fearful that we were not going to get my 93 year old dad in NY signed up before under 70 crowd added.
I am glad to hear that Colorado 1b3 (60+) folks had an easy time. I am anxiously awaiting the 1b4 ramp up (3/21). We are driving to NY the first week of May, and there is not a lot of runway. I may end up seeking J&J if reservations are tight and I wonāt have time for 2 shots.
I have such vaccine envy for all of you that live in states where under 65ās with no medical conditions can get vaccinated. Here in California we just continue to wait. I am thankful that D1 who is expected to go back to teaching in the classroom on 4/12 gets her first vaccine tomorrow.
Perhaps California may be trying to ensure that the people in the current priority groups who want to get the vaccine can get it first, rather than moving on and leaving some behind. If that is the case, obviously not everyone will agree with it ā but any rationing policy in the face of shortage will result in some people being unsatisfied.
California demographics also suggest a lower rate of vaccine refusal than many other states, so it may take more time to go through all of each priority group before moving on to the next one.
@ucbalumnus I donāt disagree with what you have said here and I too hope that the groups eligible before me in California are all able to get their vaccines. Iām just not a big fan of how California has done things during the pandemic and the vaccine rollout. Iāll just leave it at that.
Here is an article about various vaccine rationing strategies, given a shortage of vaccines:
Basically, it says that a allocating vaccine by priority groups is more helpful at reducing hospitalizations and deaths than a first-come-first-served free-for-all. It does get more complicated in determining which priority groups (i.e. the most vulnerable, based on such factors as age, pre-existing conditions, race/ethnicity, and work-from-home status, or those who have the most contact with others and therefore be the most likely spreading vectors) would be most effective at reducing hospitalizations and deaths.
However, many places are doing a mix of vaccine rationing strategies. For example, current priority groups may include older people but also workers in in-person jobs interacting with the general public (potential spreaders, although they may also be more vulnerable than others of similar age, pre-existing conditions, and race/ethnicity). Some places seem to be racing through the priority groups toward a first-come-first-served free-for-all, leaving behind many in earlier priority groups, while others are trying to get as much of the current priority group vaccinated before moving on.
Of course, it would help greatly in any case if the available vaccine supply were increased, and the capacity for vaccine administration were increased to be able to use that increased vaccine supply.
I canāt figure out why we arenāt moving faster through vaccine phases in my city/county. We have open public Internet access and a call in center for appointments but 100s go unfilled each day. Itās all honor code and folks are respecting that and not grabbing these appointments if not eligible. But if only half the spots are taken up, isnāt that a sign to open the eligibility more? Makes no sense to me.
Well GA pretty much opened it up starting next Monday. 55 and older and those 16/18 -54 with preexisting conditions listed below. I knew they would, as there seems to be many open appointments available, even with teachers just qualifying this week.
These are the health conditions provided by the governorās office:
I donāt quite get what is happening here in Oregon. Currently, health care workers, educators/child care providers, those working and held in prisons, and people over 65 are the ONLY people eligible for a vaccine. And yet, our percentage of the population vaccinated is middle of the pack, even though other states are vaccinating many other groups of people. I guess we are just doing a better job of getting those groups all vaccinated before moving on. But as someone 61 with 2 comorbidities, I look with longing across state lines. My job would also make me eligible in many other states. The plan is that I will be eligible on March 29. I just hope there are appointments available. There is nothing available to schedule right now. I hear Idaho is āawashā with vaccines. And Alaska is open to anyone over 65. Itās frustrating.
