Interesting to hear so many posters think Midd is still in play. As much as I love the NESCACs, I think it’s definitely out. (Sorry, @gotham_mom 
) It wasn’t one of the schools being discussed most of this thread, as it had the qualities @homerdog’s D wanted to avoid: rural, small, cold weather, and no Greek life. It wasn’t on the original list, but it was added at the last minute. With an acceptance at Richmond, I can’t see how Midd is in the top 5. I would guess Colgate over Midd given its vibrant Greek life.
4 Likes
While Colgate has Greek life, it too is freeing and in the middle of nowhere. My money is on Richmond or Vandy.
3 Likes
I agree with this. I think Davidson moved up the list after the visit. I think Wake moved down due to the disappointment with the dance program and not getting to see much campus life. I think URichmond is still at the top with Davidson. Lastly, I also think Vandy or LMU could really stir things up. 
6 Likes
For the purposes of the parlor game you all are playing, our high school sends about 60 apps to Vandy each year. 2-3 get in ED or ED2. We know of three kids so far this year. Then, typically, one or two get in RD and then about ten are waitlisted. In 2019, we know of maybe six kids who eventually got in off the WL and ten kids matriculated there total.
But, still, the percent getting in from our school is small. I don’t know what happened last year. From Naviance only six were admitted and only three went. I can’t see how many were ED but we know at least two of them were.
All of this to say that Vandy is a long shot. They like the highest scoring kids from our school and D went TO. I suppose she has some ECs that differentiate her from the rest of her class but we will see. I’m really not counting on this one.
4 Likes
@ProfSD: Middlebury College is not small with respect to LACs as it has about 2,600 undergraduate students.
The new train from Middlebury to New York City or Burlington should lessen concerns about isolation.
1 Like
I’m thinking:
(1) Davidson
(2) Richmond
4 Likes
I agree that is the current 1&2… just grappling with how different those schools are based on who we know from HS who went to either. We should all take bets on how it ends up!
1 Like
45:1 LMU
300:1 SCU
400:1 Furman
400:1 Denver
150:1 Denison
20:1 Lehigh
15:1 Colgate
8:1 Wake
15:1 Vanderbilt
20:1 BC
even Richmond
100: 1Middlebury
4:1 Davidson
I tried a bit to adjust for admittances, everyone would jump with an admit, but I think especially Colgate, Wake, Vandy and Davidson, because my guess is the other non-admits are probably already low on the list. If she was accepted to Davidson, I think it is tough to parse out whether Davidson or Richmond is the frontrunner based on what info we have. Plus if homerkid is anything like me, she might have a secret favorite that she isn’t even admitting to herself (and certainly not saying out loud) until she knows she is accepted.
Thoughts?
15 Likes
Love your dedication and creativity!
Two things:
(1) I’ve never learned odds and betting so I can’t chime in on that level
But,
(2) I can observe that clearly we all are losing it and desperately need this horrendous college process to finish quickly!!!
Earlier generations sang “99 Bottles of Beer on the Wall”, whereas our subset of parents is carefully weighing the intricacies of numerous but significant variables in this decision making process.
We need decisions NOW, hahahah!!!
Edited to add: this thread could serve as the trailer for a new reality show: Applying to college- How many roads will diverge for this year’s student X?
12 Likes
Agree. I wasn’t saying it was a top choice. My point is that if she is going to choose an outlier, I think Colgate would win over Midd.
1 Like
(2) I can observe that clearly we all are losing it and desperately need this horrendous college process to finish quickly!!!
@123Mom123 I could not agree more! This thread is proving that its a great distraction to focus on another student’s college decision process rather than stress over our own, lol!
Throwing in my guesses for homerkid:
Vanderbilt
Richmond
Colgate
Davidson
Wake or BC
I think I’m keeping Wake hanging on in fifth place because it seemed like a favorite before. We saw campus when it was completely quiet and empty and my D23 fell in love. I can’t wait to hear the real recap of thoughts once decisions are made!
3 Likes
Wow I stumbled on this long thread/story and got sucked in! Fun and fascinating. Just a quick point. We live hear in Nashville. I do not know how desirable Vandy is on the list, if it might be a true #1 or 2… but my advice would be don’t commit to going to Vandy right now unless you have been to the campus and seen all the construction going on and are okay with it. It’s great that they are building and growing, but the truth is it is one big noisy construction zone these days. We did the tour and it was a pretty big issue. My daughter said she’d never want to go there (at this time) just because of that. Great school, obviously. But just make sure you’re aware. And if you are and that’s all fine with you, great!
No connection to it whatsoever, but of this list, Davidson is a truly special place IMHO. In the south but not overly southern. Richmond is of course beautiful but very conservative, old-school and Greek. Saw “drinking” comments about Denison way above, honestly that school has changed a lot in that regard since 10-20 years ago — and of course has strong arts department, theatre, dance, etc. Denver is far and more urban but really a great school. My biggest advice is to talk to your daughter about Greek life and her opinion, b/c several of those schools are dominated by it and that can either be a pro or a con (for her and/or for parents). 
6 Likes
I appreciate your FB and I imagine many other reading your post do, too.
2 Likes
Our kids Dallas area HS is very Greek centric. Nearly all of the kids going to the top feeder, UT-Austin, go Greek. SEC schools are also popular for Greek.
With that backdrop, based on Naviance, Vandy gets 61 apps/year, Wake 22, W&L 20, Richmond 18, BC 15, Davidson 6 and Colgate 4. Similar to OP school, the LACs aren’t too popular.
Of that group, Davidson has the second lowest acceptance rate at 20%. Vandy is 13%. The others are all 25%-35%. All have 31-32 average ACT for acceptances and 4.15-4.22 WGPA. Vandy is 33 and 4.34.
I’ve read that Richmond’s class is approx. 40% business. I recommended it to a friend in Houston as an ED2 option for its strong Greek presence and excellent b-school. High Poets & Quant rank. He said they hadn’t heard of it and were going with Miami, SMU, IU, tOSU and Wisco. No ED because want to see how the “no way” RD options work out.
which lead to my picks:
- Davidson – know a doctor who went there (Harvard Medical) and a friend from NYC who chose it over Williams to the shock of her school.
- Richmond
…BC/Colgate/Wake
4 Likes
Vandy’s acceptance rate is under 10%, and it is very difficult to get in from certain HS’s (including the OP’s). Our HS used to send many kids to Vandy, with big merit. Now…Vandy takes one student during the ED round and waitlists a few others. Those on the WL are at the very top of the class.
I am revising my list. The final 3 are Colgate, Davidson, and Richmond. This student will end up at Davidson or Richmond.
4 Likes
@twogirls - I agree with this, with Lehigh as a dark horse candidate.
Of course, as you can tell by my icon, Davidson is clearly the best final answer!
6 Likes
Lehigh is on my list as well, if this student is ok with the northeast. I have said from the beginning that I think she would like it.
1 Like
OK, I’m going to jump in here, just for fun 
. There are
a lot of things to like about Lehigh but I don’t think it’ll be HomerdogD’s darkhorse pick. First of all, Homerdog has said that there’s no direct flight from home to Bethleham PA, which, though not an unsurmountable hurdle, would be a pain and not worth it unless the school was nearly ideal. HDD wants a fairly compact, walkable campus. While Lehigh’s campus isn’t THAT large, it is literally scattered up and down the side of a mountain…a STEEP mountain, which makes the process of hoofing quickly from class to class (especially in wet dirty snow) quite a challenge. I know a young man there (slender to begin with) who lost 25 pounds freshman year because of that slope! It’s not like the park-like hills of U Richmond…more like a ski slope that has been terraced to insert buildings on different levels (I live in an Appalachian mountain town and walk my dog on long, steep hills every day yet Lehigh’s campus would be daunting for me if I had to walk it continuously every day). It IS a gorgeous campus, with wonderful gothic buildings on one end and striking super-modern ones on the other (downtown) but easy to get around, it’s not. There are shuttle-busses to ferry students up and around the mountain but when we visited in 2019, those busses ran late and were packed (we waited at the bus-stops longer than it would have taken to walk). The downtown area of campus was rather gritty and industrial looking. That, in itself, might be a draw for some students but I’m not so sure It would be HomerdogD’s thing (It wasn’t my D’s either). Since HDD is already In at Richmond, I think she’d pick UR over Lehigh for the campus alone.
8 Likes
You make good points; she’d have to visit to see about the physical campus. I think Lehigh would come into play if she decides she doesn’t want the South after all, and yet doesn’t want as cold at Colgate/BC. Plus it’s got the larger size like Wake and strong Greek (though it might be too Greek/party?) So I do think it’s a dark horse, but I see her there b4 Colgate.
Fun game!
1 Like
I couldn’t agree more! I love hearing about other '21s so I can stop – even for a little while --worrying about where my own will end up!
I like the @dadof4kids approach to odds setting, but I’m not sure where my loyalties lie at this point! I do love following the journey though, @homerdog. Thanks for bringing us along!
7 Likes