<p>So the news today - 12/2 - is all over the massive snowstorm around Buffalo. People trapped for hours on the roads, I-90 closed in both directions, probably running low on Buffalo wings. You can check the outside webcam at Rochester. It looks out over Eastman Quad. </p>
<p>Right now there's a little snow on the ground. Not a ton, no imminent shortage of Buffalo wings. That's the difference between Rochester and Buffalo, though they're less than 80 miles apart.</p>
<p>Yeah, I texted D2 about the weather–it was 65 and sunny here today. Shirtsleeve weather. She told me it wasn’t nice to gloat.</p>
<p>Well wayout my son headed off today very bitter about the lack of snow in RI and how much they have in NY. I don’t think he grasps that Buffalo got the snow-he said it was lake effect and Rochester is near a Great Lake but I told him to check his facts! </p>
<p>He’s so cute though. I went to check the forecast today and Rochester now pops up first!</p>
<p>Do you think he is trying to tell me something??? :)</p>
<p>How funny! </p>
<p>And we have snow–just not in town. It’s all up in the mountains where it belongs.</p>
<p>The ski resorts are all open (except the one 20 minutes from my house–it’ll open the 18th). D1 is going boarding this weekend. </p>
<p>Alas! I suppose today’s nice weather means I need to go rake leaves.</p>
<p>I used to mow my leaves because they’re nitrogen for the ground. Now I blow them under the trees and let them compress and mulch themselves. </p>
<p>The typical lake effect is west to east, like on the shores of Lake Michigan. That’s because the prevailing winds move that way. The fall off as you move away from the lake is dramatic; the band is often only 10 or less miles wide. </p>
<p>The recent decrease in Rochester snow is puzzling. If the lake is warmer you should see more snow on land next to it because there would be more moisture in the air. My guess is that winds have shifted somewhat - perhaps part of larger climate change, perhaps just a cyclical shift - and are blowing more from Lake Erie and less from Lake Ontario. The moisture from the former will tend to fall before it gets 80+ miles inland. The moisture from the latter would land right on Rochester. Winds could have changed because fronts are reaching different depths moving north into the cold and coming south from Hudson’s Bay. That could be a short term cycle or very long lasting.</p>
<p>That lake effect snow is famous. When I went to college at Clarkson in Potsdam waaaaay upstate, speakers would be afraid to book in the winter. They’d be assured that it was too far north for the lake effect snow. (It was COLD however). </p>
<p>Then when I lived near Binghampton we had plenty of snow… but not like Buffalo.</p>
<p>BTW, because they now have time lapse radar, you can see lake effect snow blooming with the wind patterns off the lake. It’s a pretty cool effect.</p>
<p>I’m staring at a lot of snow outside my office window. Fortunately - it is a very pretty snowfall, and the conditions are perfect for skiing.</p>
<p>Now is when the tunnel / corridor system is a nice amenity.</p>
<p>D has been freaking out about the snow. Too much snow for her Southwestern soul. Plus COLD! (And no tunnels between Phase and the rest of campus.)</p>
<p>She had a physics exam at 7 am today so she had to get up and trudge across campus in the snowstorm. She is not a happy camper…</p>
<p>And the snow may be perfect for skiing, but D’s skis are at home!</p>
<p>Haha… I have been doing this all of my life, so it seems so natural to me to brace for the snow. I don’t think, however, that a 7 a.m is ever going to seem natural to me - that is harsh.</p>
<p>So how much snow do you have up there? We haven’t had a single flake yet.
It is cold though.</p>
<p>According to the weather service there’s 12 inches on the ground in central Rochester, with another 3-6 inches expected tonight. </p>
<p>Looking at both the Eastman Quad and Wilson Commons web cams, I’d venture to say there’s about 12-15 inches on campus. </p>
<p>The Monroe Ave webcams ([Rochester</a> NY New York Live Weathercam Webcam 1-640-15 Spring Cam Soon Snow Storms Blizzards Ice Blizzard Monroe County Picture Weather Cam Web Cam 640 X 480 Refresh = 15](<a href=“http://www.rocpic.com/monroe_ave_webcam_1_640_15.html]Rochester”>Rochester NY New York Live Weather Cam Webcam 1-640-15 Winter Spring Snow Storms Blizzards Ice Summer Fall Monroe County Picture Weather Cam Web Cam 640 X 480 Refresh = 15)) seem to show about the same.</p>
<p>Oh boy he just looked at these pictures, checked our weather forecast (no snow) and stomped out of the room to make a bowl of ice cream to settle him down.</p>
<p>The kid is obsessed with snow! Tell your D about this and why she should be happy. :)</p>
<p>LOL!</p>
<p>Her mantra: it’s only for 4 years. It’s only for 4 years.</p>
<p>If you look at the wind patterns and the highs and lows over time, you see that now the wind has been coming from the north and northwest. This is more the old pattern - which is where it would be nice to have old doppler radar loops, like from the 50’s and 60’s! Remember that winds go clockwise around high pressure. That means the high is west so the winds are turning around and thus from the north. </p>
<p>This pattern is being maintained by a high sitting down lower in the US. The high causing snow would otherwise have dropped down and moved to the east. My guess is this is an anomaly, but it could be a pattern - like of old - where a high sits in the Canadian plains and drops air downward over the lakes.</p>
<p>Lergnom… This is very interesting info. I wonder if there is in fact a changing pattern. I feel as though I should be taking notes - will there be a quiz?</p>
<p>I’ve been interested in weather since I was asked in grade school to do taped reviews of books for blind kids and the specialty given me was about that. Lake effect is cool because it is often not part of a low, meaning not part of a typical storm. </p>
<p>Anyone with a tv knows we have 100+ year data but we don’t have radar. I’ve seen models that take data and map it so you get the moving fronts. </p>
<p>If you think about it, Rochester is below a lake so it will get snow off the lake if a high is to the north and west - dumping air clockwise over the lake - or if a low has moved east and north - so the air is moving counter-clockwise over the lake. Because there are big hills / mountains to the east, those will suck the existing moisture out of a low - higher air supports less moisture so it will drop on to the higher ground. This kind of low pressure storm is basically a nor’easter, meaning a low that has gone past with winds circulating back at you over water, picking up moisture and dropping it on land and your head. That’s what we get in Boston. My guess - not having gone through any data - is the much bigger historical component is highs sitting up in Canada, where they can hover for a week or even longer (like months in a drought). These can sit there with winds coming around the edge down over the lake. The wind doesn’t have to be strong to generate lots of snow because the air picks up so much moisture. The temperature difference over land is just enough to make the moisture fall. Buffalo gets it from both east and north, which is why they’re the poster child for lake effect.</p>
<p>D called to report ** actual blue sky** in Rochester today. </p>
<p>Now if the the weather will just stay decent so she can fly home on the 19th…</p>
<p>(And Lergnon, one of my co-workers is a meteorologist. She’d be fascinated to talk weather patterns with you.)</p>