@Islands62 @Lemonade22 and anyone else who cares.
There is great confusion on this topic because people conflate two different types of financial aid contacts. There is the general, usually sent out before the FA deadline has passed, contact which is simply a reminder email sent to those applicants who said they were applying for financial aid but have not turned in all the required documents, and a more specific contact which demands a specific explanation of your situation or more specific documents usually a week or two before decisions come out (for schools that provide FA decisions with acceptance). The former contact is meaningless and does not correlate with acceptance, while the latter correlates highly with acceptance.
For example, I was contacted by the Smith Financial Aid office a week before I was informed that I was accepted (early write) asking why my mother’s income in her 1040 did not add up to the submitted W2s. This was because she had income for which a W2 or a 1099 was not given. When I told my father this he said congratulations, you have been accepted to college. I asked him why and he explained, that from the mid-90s to the mid-00s, he worked as a Financial Aid Officer at a mid-level college in California and that a FA officer NEVER works on a file until they have been informed that that student is accepted. NEVER!!.
In fact, when he started, they only worked on the files of those people who had paid the deposit and returned the acceptance form. This is because they have limited staff, and don’t have the resources to review the files and create a FA Award for students who will not attend. Plus there are limited pots of internal FA money, and they can only be allocated to the pool of accepted students. He further told me that this didn’t used to be a problem because FA Awards were usually given two weeks to a month after admissions decisions, but with higher competition for students, there came more pressure to have FA Awards with the Admissions decisions. Thus whereas before there was no overlap between Admissions and FA, now there is.
Finally, more proof. As I said in other places I was accepted to Cornell and Williams, rejected from Swarthmore and waitlisted at UChicago. I received the same W2 demand from both Cornell and Williams a week before I was notified of their acceptances, whereas with Swarthmore and UChicago, I received nothing. Thus, in all my applications where we have access to an FA checklist, I can reasonably tell you if I am in contention or not for a spot because the issue with my FA is something that needs to be rectified before they can issue FA Award. Two other schools have messed with my financial aid based on this problem, and the rest there is nothing.
So, in my case, if I have not received an email asking for clarification of my mom’s W2 problem a week before decisions are to come out (for schools that give FA Award simultaneously with acceptance), then I know that I am not accepted. Likewise, if I receive a W2 request, I know that I am accepted.
This is all based on a small sample size I know, but it makes logical sense.
Thus, the problem becomes not whether FA contact is meaningful, because in some cases it is, it is whether the contact you received is the “right” type of contact.