<p>The comments in threads like these are usually (and not illegitimately) anecdotal. It’s interesting to read them to get a general sense of what may be happening out there, but what really interests me is whether the data will actually bear out that more middle/upper middle class kids are choosing to go to less expensive schools when they also have the opportunity to go to (i.e., they have actually been accepted to) more expensive “elite” schools. I suspect that is actually the case, but my suspicion is admittedly influenced by our own experience. My son turned down several top schools to go to a much less expensive school. It was a painful and difficult decision making process. But we simply concluded we could not justify the very substantial additional cost.</p>
<p>Now here’s the thing: if I posted my financial statement and my salary for the last couple years, you would each react differently. Some would say, “Yep, I hear you – I completely understand your choice.” Others would say “Are you crazy – if I made that much I’d be lighting my cigar with a twenty after I dropped Junior off at Stanford in his new convertible.” </p>
<p>You’d all be right, at least in the absence of other factors. And there are a lot of them. For example – how old are we? How secure do I feel in my job? Where do I think the economy is going in my geographic area? Where will the real estate market be? How does my health project over the next five to ten years? How old are our parents, and what is their financial condition and health? What are the job prospects for our other children? And many others.</p>
<p>There are, in short, a lot of factors that are not just real to us, but actually real, that influence our comfort with expenses, but that are little taken into account – or ignored entirely – by colleges. So in our case, when it came to financial aid it was “no soup for you.” The colleges wanted our son, but they wanted our money too. As much of it as they could get, and 5 to 6% more every year besides. </p>
<p>Maybe it would have all worked out. But it nagged at us that if we took that risk, we’d be among the fools in the middle paying full boat and sweating it out. We just couldn’t get there.</p>
<p>But maybe we’re just another anecdote. It’s a big country, and the top schools presumably have concluded that they really have no shortage of more financially courageous middle/upper middle families, not to mention a large supply of upper class families, who are willing to pay the sticker price, even with its inexorable and meteoric rise. Time will tell if they are right.</p>