<p>Duke 8.7%
Berkeley 17% (20% Including spring admits)
UCLA 19%
USC 19%
University of Virginia 24%
Umich 32%
UCSD 28%
UCSB 38%
UC Davis 38%
UCI 39%</p>
<p>What do you think about my predicted acceptance rates for next year?</p>
<p>I don;t think Duke, UPenn, Michigan, UCLA, USC, or cornell will reach those levels. For example Cornell I believe is around 18%, a drop to 10% is almost going to be impossible.</p>
<p>Slipper, I think most of those are realistic. In the case of Michigan, they joined the common application this year. Its applicant pool swelled by 25% and as a result, its acceptance rate dropped from 50% to 40%. It is not inconceivable that its acceptance rate should drop from 40% to 32% next year. Chicago experienced a similar drop in acceptance rate in the first 4-5 years of joining the common app.</p>
<p>applications to those schools, ivies especially, have way outpaced enrollment growth. I think they have doubled in the past 10 years? I wouldn’t be surprised to see all the rates drop that much.</p>
<p>I think most of those are overestimates of how much the rates will change. Cornell at 11%? Duke at 9%? I don’t think the addition of SCEA to Princeton will bring it down to 6% either.</p>
<p>Fun fact: Stanford’s acceptance rate in 1957 was 20%. 55 years later and it’s approaching 6%. Not that all schools will move that slowly, especially with the recent higher education boom, but still, once the acceptance rate gets dangerously low (<20%) it gets increasingly harder to lower it. And if the schools in the OP dropped their ED, their acceptance rates would be at least 3% higher.</p>
<p>I think Berkeley’s acceptance rate will not drop anytime soon. It will stay at 20-22% range for another 5 years or so. Or, if there’s any movement within the next 5 years, it’s more likely going upward.</p>