I will admit that I did not read the whole thread. But I will say this:
You must compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges. School A, which only gives need-based aid will not care what School B gave you in merit money.
The upside to need-based aid is that there will be fluctuations in student contributions as the college expects students to work and the amount they can borrow in their own name does increase, as long as your income and assets remain stable and your kid does not fail out of school, you have some idea as to what your package is going to be.
At schools that give need-based aid, it is not a negotiation, it is a financial review and they will ask that you submit the package from the other school.
It was been my experience that schools will look at what their direct head peers are giving; the Ivies will look at the Ivies and AWS. The aid package from AWS was better than her first choice Ivy and they had no loans in their package. I explained to the other school, while they were her first choice school B was a more financially feasible option for our family, when sending the package and asking for a review. Her school met the other school package. I followed up and asked was this package only for this year or if she could expect this type of package for all 4 years?
If your kid got into Harvard which has a $36 Billion Endowment and gives need-based aid to families up to $200k income and normal assets, schools with much small endowments, many small schools simply don’t have the money to match
Also with merit money, don’t forget to read the fine print:
What is the GPA needed to keep the money? for some schools it just may be satisfactory academic progress (meaning nothing below a C). at other schools, it could be 3.0, 3.5, or 3.75.
Is there a phase in to meet the GPA? Do you have to maintain the GPA by the end of the first year or do you lose your money at the end of the first term?
Is there an appeal process if your kid has a 3.46 and the GPA requirement is a 3.50 (most of the time there is no rounding)?
What happens if they drop a class?
the biggest question is if your child should lose the scholarship, will the money be replaced by comparable aid? If the scholarship is lost will the school still be a financially feasible option for your family?