Dismal GPA and ECs, so how low are my chances at my reach schools? Should I even apply?

Chance Me / Match Me!
1

Hi! I’m a high school junior in NJ and high school has turned out to be a horrible experience. c: I used to have aspirations for T20 schools, but after junior year, reality has hit me and I’ve realized I’m probably not even going to get into the T40. I’m thinking of transferring after freshman year in college, but I haven’t really explored that idea much, but if someone could tell me more, I’d be super grateful. I would also love if someone could suggest more schools, but I would love most of all!! for someone to tell me what my chances are for the schools I’ve listed.
NOTE:
Downward trend in GPA
Would get lower tuition at TCNJ because of parent’s job – possibly transfer out of it freshman year? or go directly to grad school afterwards since no debt.
Skipped a grade – maybe a gap year since I’m kinda sick of being the youngest. Would it help much?
Tons of family friends are professors, the closest are working in TCNJ and UPenn. Maybe a good recommendation letter?

Asian, Female, and a Junior
Income: High enough for tuition to not be a real worry, but low enough that it’d still be nice to save money. Yes, I’m very aware the UCs don’t offer OOS financial help.
Intended Major: Definitely in the STEM field, leaning toward Bio, but I’ll see after senior year if it changes. (3 science courses next year)

Rank: Not given, so I can only guarantee top 20%, but I’m definitely not top 10%.
UW GPA: 3.4/3.5 (my school doesn’t do GPA on a 4.0 scale, so I’m estimating. Yes, it’s incredibly low compared to other applicants, that’s where my real worry is.) Would be a 3.6, I’m guessing, if senior year also counted.
W GPA: 3.9/4.0
UC GPA: 3.7/3.8
PSAT: 1460 (just a tad too low for NJ’s National Merit, I reckon)
SAT: 1470 (retaking soon)
SAT 2: Math 2 - 760, Chemistry - 760

APs: 8 by senior year. (I go to a small competitive public school, 1,000 students with about 300 in my grade, and we honestly offer ~13 AP courses, so I’m taking one of the most rigorous schedules available)
Sophomore Year: AP Statistics - 4
Junior Year: AP Chemistry, AP Physics 1, AP Language and Composition, and APUSH (taking AP tests soon)
Senior Year: AP Biology, AP Literature, and AP Calc AB

ECs: (when applying aka at the end of senior year; I’ll also be joining more clubs like HOSA and Science League since I’ll have more time available. They’re still pretty bland though…)
Arts and Crafts Club President and Founder (4 years)
Newspaper Club Writer (4 years)
Asian American Club Treasurer (1 year as treasurer, 1 year as a member)
Diversity Council Member (2 years bc the club just started)
NHS (2 years, we don’t get to join in sophomore year) and German NHS (2 years, same as regular NHS)
DECA (1 year, didn’t place)
Volleyball (2 years JV, 2 years V)
Translator at a Chinese student exchange program

Volunteer Hours: 150, not that high. I volunteer primarily at shelters, the library (as a tutor), and the hospital (accepted into their “Junior Summer Program” as a volunteer.)

Schools: (tell me if you think they’re in the right category)

SUPER reaches:
UCB, USC, UCLA (definitely my top choice, would try to transfer to), NYU, UMich

Reaches:
Case Western, College of William & Mary

Matches:
Northeastern, BU, SUNY - Binghamton University, Syracuse, Penn State, University of Washington

Safeties: !! need more, would love suggestions
Rutgers and TCNJ

2

You don’t have to go to a top 40 university to be very successful in life, or to have a great career in the US. Also, you don’t need to go to a T40 for undergrad in order to go to a T10 for graduate school. When I was in graduate school at Stanford, the other students there were from a very wide range of different undergraduate schools. Many had gone to their local state schools for undergrad, and a few had done undergrad in other countries.

After getting my Master’s from Stanford, I spent nearly my entire career working for bosses who went to less prestigious schools. One of the very best went to seminary school. Another went to a school that I had never heard of. One of the better bosses that I have had was from Rutgers (far more prestigious than the first two, even if not quite Stanford).

I personally am not a fan of the idea of going somewhere hoping to do well enough to transfer somewhere else. I think that you can get into a good university (such as Rutgers) and do well there, then consider your options for graduate school if you want to continue in school.

Is the downward trend in GPA due to taking more difficult classes? If so, then this might be a hint regarding what you should take next year. You say “I’m taking one of the most rigorous schedules available”. I don’t think that you should should be taking any AP class in which an A is highly unlikely. Take AP classes in subjects that you like a lot and that you are really good at. Take honors or CP classes for everything else. I think that you might have been pushing yourself too hard. I understand that you have a lot of company in this area, but that doesn’t make it a good idea.

Reading through your post, I will admit that I was thinking “Rutgers”. It is quite a good university. I am not familiar with TCNJ.

A gap year might actually be a good idea. I was also the youngest, and frankly wish that I had taken one. I did take a two year gap before going back to graduate school at Stanford, and the gap was very valuable. I was a much better student after the gap.

3

Penn State is ~$45k/yr out of state and considers GPA 2/3 of the decision. If you apply there, you could apply DUS (undecided) and for a backup of summer session to increase your chances.

4

@bodangles Are my chances low at that school too? I looked my school’s naviance and everyone in my stats area got accepted (albeit one person with a little higher GPA but lower SAT). I’d post a screenshot, but I’m not sure if it’s allowed. But thank you for the information nonetheless; I’ll look up their summer sessions. :slight_smile:

5

@DadTwoGirls Somehow I missed your post! And it’s too late to edit my above one, whoops.

Thank you for the thoughtful reply! I’ve always known grad school was an option, but I never really heard about the experience, but it seems positive from your post.^^ I’ll have to look up for information and talk to my guidance counselor about it since it does seem to be a good choice. As for transferring, I went to UCLA’s college tour and apparently 40% of their upperclassmen are transfers – I just really like UCLA, so any way I could get in, I’m partial to. I’m also not sure I’ll be completely happy at an NJ state school, which is why I’m still thinking of transferring.

Yeah, I learned my lesson after junior year… I downgraded to three while my friends are taking four or five. They’re also classes I adore, like Bio. (which I wanted to take junior year) I think I can keep my grade above a 3.7- maybe even a 4.0! - throughout the year.

Rutgers is a pretty nice school, which is why I’ll definitely apply. I still haven’t visited though, so we’ll see next year ^^
I’ll also poke around CC and try to find some people posting about gap years too. I need to become a better student xD

6

Somewhere along the line you have bought into the ridiculous notion that your stats are not good enough and that only Ivys and super competitive schools count. You have a great profile and really need to feel good about your accomplishments, focus on your career goals, and seeks colleges/universities that you could see yourself being happy at. Hard work, ability to get along with others (social skills), some luck, a little risk taking, leadership, and being a great employee are the things that lead to success much more than whatever you consider a “name or top school.” When I think of the most successful (wealth and intellect) people I know, they went to Franklin & Marshall (no masters degree), Siena College (no masters degree), U of R and the last has no college degree.

7

Regarding transferring to UCLA, the majority of transfers come from CA Community colleges and in-state universities since these transfers get priority. Out of state transfers have the lowest priority.

Last year 2016 transfer admission stats for UCLA:

of out of state applicants: 2,569

% of total applicants: 12%

of out of state admits: 209

% admitted: 8%

% of total admits: 4%

8

@Gumbymom Oh, that’s low. I knew most came from CCCs, but I thought OOS had a decent chance too. But thank you for sharing. And while I love UCLA, if I don’t make it in freshman year, I’ll probably explore other transfer options too. c:

@Empireapple Wow, that’s such a nice and uplifting post! ^-^ Thanks so much! I have a lot to improve on in terms of my character – cough self-esteem cough – so it’s reassuring to know at least that college isn’t the end. However, I don’t know… I think the childhood pressure to get to a good school has really left a mark on me, which is why I’m so interested in the T50s. But yeah, some of the best people I know didn’t go to top schools either. c

Does anyone have any thoughts about my list and my chances? I’m very curious if I actually match the schools I listed.

9

I see your UC GPA is 3.7/3.8, higher than your overall GPA. Have you considered any UCs besides UCB and UCLA? You could have a chance at them. My friend has a 3.7 GPA and got accepted to UC Santa Cruz (that’s just one person I know, but I guess it shows at least one person got into it with your GPA. She played volleyball for four years and I’m not sure what her test scores were). Then again, UC out-state-tuition is high.

I’m impressed when I hear people are going to any of the schools you listed as matches. Don’t be so hard on yourself :slight_smile:

10

@labradoodle5 Hm, I did like Irvine, but my parents don’t want me going across the country for lower tier UCs so they said to limit my applications to three Californian universities. Even if I did get accepted to Irvine or SD, I don’t think they’ll let me attend. ;-; As for the tuition, it’s not a real concern – I doubt I’ll even get accepted in the first place.

And thank you. c: I posted this when I got back a really low grade on my final, so I was extremely disappointed in myself. Calling a 3.5 gpa “dismal” probably makes me seem like a drama queen.

11

@EmZoWe before you decide on what are reaches, matches and safeties, you need to take a look at the common data sets for the schools. For example, at one of your “match” schools, SUNY Binghamton, the common data set https://www.binghamton.edu/oira/docs/CDS_2015-2016.pdf lists only 19% of admitted students having a GPA of 3.49 or below. That makes Binghamton a reach, not a match. Definitely apply, but seriously think about adding some REAL matches and safeties to your list.

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@tdy123 I’m hesitant to place it with the reaches though because I think my reach schools are still a lot harder. My school’s Naviance shows that no one above a 3.5 weighted GPA got rejected from there and we had 20 applicants in the past 3 years. That being said, the CDS shows my GPA places me with 17% of accepted students, but my SAT score is well above their average.

College of William and Mary, which I regard as a reach, has a mix of defers/rejections/accepts in my stats range on Naviance, but most are rejects. And their CDS shows that only 5% of people have the same GPA range as I do. Shouldn’t Binghamton at least be a high match?

I honestly don’t quite get admissions, so any clarification would help.

*For my original post, I talked to my guidance counselor and my UW GPA is actually 3.6. I messed up, but it’s still pretty low.

13

@EmZoWe I’m very happy to see that you are looking at both Naviance and CDS. The truth about college admissions is that no one completely gets it. From my son’s experience applying from his HS (extremely selective NYC public, 2220 avg SAT for last graduating class) Naviance is the best predictor, with the caveat that it is most accurate where the standardized test scores and GPA were in relative synchronization. The predictive value was much more hit-or-miss where there was a large discrepancy between the two. When that is the case, essays, EC’s and recommendations become much more important - all things that don’t show up well on Naviance. Also, and I don’t know if this is true on all Naviance implementations, my son’s school locked the GPA on Naviance at the end of Junior year. Overall, and this applies to everyone, including the 4.0/2400 kids: the best way to look at college admissions is to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. Have safeties for your safeties.

14

if you plan on transferring why don’t you just attend community college? you’ll save much more money and might even have a better shot at transferring since some universities give priority to community college transfer students over other 4-year transfers. plus it can give you confidence again to get good grades vs at a 4-year where you might do badly/average.

and if you’re really set on UCLA maybe you can move to LA or california and try to gain residency.