Do I have any realistic chance for EA MIT or should I try ED?

After looking at the admission stats for MIT for asian male applicants and from my state… :(( :(( :frowning:

My question is should I try to risk it on MIT EA (and possibly not get admitted to any Ivy/MIT/Stanford/Caltech tier schools in RD) or go with something a bit safer but still really competitive like Columbia (will be legacy there). However, my #1 choice is MIT and if I get in ED somewhere else I will probably wonder if I could have gotten into MIT.

For some context, I come from a terribly ranked public high school that has sent 4 kids to MIT in the last decade and every last one of them was a URM or had some other kind of hook. Also, I won a 4th place grand award at ISEF in a bio category and have some other minor science competitions but I’m not some genius who’s medaling in USAMO.

Scores: 2300 SAT (750 math), 35 ACT (35 Math, 35 Science), 800 Chem, 800 Math 2
Rank: top 10% but nowhere close to val
GPA: 4.00 unweighted, 4.55 weighted
APs: so far got a 5 on six AP exams including Calc BC, chem, and bio
Clubs: Math team, CS Club, Mock Trial, Science Olympiad
Essays: Haven’t even gotten started…

Basically: should I even try for MIT EA or apply to Columbia instead because I have no chance at MIT?

It’s disingenuous to say you have no chance at MIT. Your metrics say so – hopefully you’re not being falsely humble. Thus, I would advise you to apply Early to your first choice – MIT or Columbia – both equally difficult to get admitted – but not so different as to choose one over the other to “game” and EA or ED strategy