Do "Likely Letters" Make Students "Likely" to Enroll? An Informal Survey

A growing number of colleges, including some of the most sought-after, send “Likely Letters” to top candidates (not just athletes) well before the published notification date. The University of Pennsylvania, for example, sent out about 200 in mid-February and is slated to dispatch another couple hundred soon. The recipients of these missives can rest assured that, if they don’t screw up big-time in the weeks ahead, then an official acceptance will be on the way. The purpose of this early good news is to let the strongest applicants know that they are very much wanted, with the hope that these students will, in turn, respond by favoring this institution over another frontrunner school.

**So here are two questions for current seniors … or, really, for anyone who has an opinion:

  1. If you receive a Likely Letter from a college that’s NOT your first choice, do you think that being clearly “wanted” might bump this school ahead of the initially preferred college(s)? For instance, if your heart is set on Dartmouth (and you do get in), but your Likely Letter comes from Penn, which university might you ultimately choose?
  2. If you DON’T receive a Likely Letter from a first-choice college-one which you know for sure does use Likely Letters--but you do eventually get admitted, how might this affect your final decision? Will the lack of a Likely Letter move this college LOWER on the roster because apparently this school isn’t as keen to get you as it is to get some of your fellow applicants? **
  1. If I were sent a likely letter by an institution which is NOT my first choice, my first choice would still keep its place. However, the school that did sent me a likely letter would move up the ranks BELOW my first choice. For example, if Columbia was my first choice and Penn sent me a likely letter, Columbia would still remain my first choice BUT Penn would now place as my third choice as opposed to my previous fifth choice. Obviously, should I get admitted to Columbia later on, it would be a no-brainer.
  2. Definitely not. Because I know that the recipients of the likely letters compose a fraction of a fraction of the entire applicant pool, I would still be ecstatic - whether I get notified to be admitted via likely early on OR at the official decision release day - regardless.

At this moment, when the college decisions are to be released at the end of the month, I am not too anxious nor hopeful for a likely letter. By any chance that I DO get one, not too much will change.

Current senior here, and I think that I have fairly comprehensive answers that apply to a lot of kids in my situation.

  1. Show me the money, then we’ll talk.

  2. Show me the money, then we’ll talk.

@hungryteenager-While financial aid packages and/or merit scholarships do often determine where a student ultimately enrolls, I’m curious to know how Likely Letters also affect preferences, even if the bottom line ends up making the final decision for you.

Everyone likes to have the sense of being wanted, but I’ll never understand how it can override rational choices made after all the data is in and the dust has settled.

Secondly, maybe they generate an opium-like “khaif” or high that causes applicants to neglect the other irons they have in the fire, however slightly and gives the sending college an advantage.

Maybe they should attach a tear-off portion at the bottom that says “This ticket good for one really good B---- session with the Dean.” Now, that might be worth something.

To be honest, I wouldn’t care and I don’t think most would. A school like u pen is very selective and when they only send out a few hundred likely letters, students know that most people just don’t make that cut. I think students these days don’t go to a name brand school based on whether or not the schools “wants” them, but rather on the fact on whether or not they get in.

Sally, as the father of a highly recruited brainiac (took after his mother,) the money is going to make the difference. The only thing the likely letter would do (we have one from William and Mary) is keep him from getting too attached to one of the flagship public universities.

While he wants Ivy, it probably won’t happen but I think he understands the odds are against him.

@rednecktiger- Just to be the devil’s advocate here, if your son got a Likely Letter from an Ivy but better MONEY from another school on his list, where do you think he’d end up?

And what if he got NO Likely Letter from an Ivy (but ultimately was admitted) and he also got a nice merit scholarship from another school he liked … where do you think he would land?

Would a Likely Letter … or lack thereof … play ANY role in the final choice?

I was thrilled when my daughter received a likely letter, I thought it was a great relief to head into the final month of waiting with one “in her back pocket”.

It has been interesting to watch her emotional process over the past couple weeks, however. She was at first ecstatic, but since then has started moping around saying that she “won’t be excited to get the admission result from (that school)”. Sort of a Groucho Marx phenomenon, - “if they want me so bad, they must not be that impressive”.
So the LL from school #3 on her list, just made her pine that much harder for school #1.

I will be so glad when April gets here and I can start focusing on decorating the dorm room.

This, of course, is what the admission deans hope WON’T happen. They think that the Likely Letter can make an applicant forsake all others. Sure, teenagers can be fickle, but probably not THAT fickle.

This sounds like a great project or case study for an MBA marketing class!

  1. It definitely has. I was deferred by Columbia (so, obviously my first choice school) and it really got to me, to the point where I just assumed I wasn't going to get in anywhere. Then in February I received a likely from Penn, and since then I've been all over Penn and what they have to offer. While I'm not sure what will happen in late March, I know that Penn will definitely get a leg up for me that I don't think they would have got, had they not sent me a likely.
  2. Well, knowing Columbia won't send me a likely letter is a bit discouraging, but this is due to the fact that I was already deferred. I already know that I'm not quite good enough for them, so if they accepted me I would feel a bit inferior to pretty much half the class, and it would seem like just pure luck that I got in rather than them seeing something that shines in my application. That said, I wouldn't mind if I didn't get a likely from Columbia if they didn't defer me in the first place, since I know they send out very very few

NO, it means they likely had plenty of other students who fit your profile and chose among those. You were deferred, not denied. If Penn wants you, what is to feel sorry about? Is Columbia so superior to Penn?

Hopefully, in the end, both Columbia and Penn will accept you; if not, however, don’t label yourself in a demeaning way.

@LucieTheLakie I’m not feeling sorry about anything, and I don’t think Columbia is superior to Penn either. I’m just saying that obviously I wasn’t a perfect match there, as evidenced by my deferral.

If a kid is undecided and doesn’t have any financial constraints, I think it could make a difference. Wilguen notes he started really thinking about Penn after a LL. I know of a kid around here who started really visualizing himself at a school when he got a LL. Before he knew about the school, but he hadn’t let himself go and put any emotional investment in it.

It depends on the kid’s choices.

Data points that I know of

  1. kid got 2 non HYPS ivy likelies, one HYPS admission and attends a non HYP Ivy which gave him likely because he wants to be in a sport and was given a spot.
  2. Kid got two HYPS likelies, attends a top combined bs/md program instead.
  3. Kid got several likelies (includes all of HYPS) after winning intel top prize and attends H.
  4. There were several kids who got likelies from one ivy couple of years at one school and everyone of them went elsewhere.

One of my “Likelies” sent me a letter and it did jump up in my Likely rankings- even above my rolling admission likely which had already awarded me full tuition and board x 4 years. May not be a smart economic decision, but we’ll see. They swayed my heart. However, I am in agreement with the above post. The warm and fuzzy from the favor has worn off a bit and I’m looking forward to my other results now.

These are very interesting questions, and I agree with @T26E4 that they should be an actual study.

The answers below are based on discussions with my son, who’s a senior and who got into a school SCEA, and assume equal financial aid from all schools.

  1. No—the initially preferred college would remain the first choice. But if there were a very close second choice, receiving a likely letter from that school would put both schools into a tie, and making the decision between them would be extremely difficult.
  2. Since my son got into his first-choice school, this is harder to answer, but I can answer it for his very close second-choice school. Not receiving a likely letter from that school would have an effect—he would be more likely to stick with his first-choice school. Even though receiving a likely letter from the very close second-choice school would put both schools into a tie, not receiving one would probably prevent that from happening. Although he realizes that likely letters are very rare, he would feel that his first-choice school wanted and valued him more than his very close second-choice school did.

I think people’s answers to these questions will partly depend on the relative rankings of their schools. (Again, this assumes equal financial aid at all of them.) For some students, the first-choice school is way above all the rest; for others, the first-choice school is only slightly above one or more of the rest. In my son’s case, there is a significant gap in his rankings between the first two schools and the third (and fourth, fifth, etc.). A likely letter from the third-choice school definitely would not make him want to go there more than his SCEA school but might bring that third-choice school a little closer in ranking to the second-choice school, though his choice would still likely be between his two top schools.

Within 20% of the same money? The Ivy.

The Ivy.

The Likely Letter would refocus him on his original goal of HYP. In my opinion.

Maybe it would allow for visit? If a kid got a LL now, before spring break, and hadn’t visited, maybe it would spur a visit?