In the NESCAC, because of the tip and slot system (or bands, or whatever you prefer to call it), there is variation between schools, sports, athletic ability and genders as to what grades/board scores are expected. I strongly suspect that there is more room to maneuver, for example, for ice hockey than for x-country, particularly at the NESCAC schools that emphasize ice hockey. I know a girl who was flat out told she needed two full points higher on her ACT than a boy who was admitted a few years earlier for the same sport. The standards for admissions among the various NESCACs also vary considerably. Adding to the equation is the increasing number of NESCACs that are now test optional.
As you suggest, we can debate this all day, but in the final analysis, the issue is where your kid fits into a specific school’s needs. I highly recommend unofficial meetings with the coaches at NESCAC schools of interest (armed with a copy of an unofficial transcript). They will give a fairly accurate idea of what would be needed in a specific way for your kid. If your kid is a top recruit, the coach has more lee-way and will explain where your kid stands in the coach’s experience. Of course, this should be confirmed through a pre-read with admissions.