I know I read that schools will accept more applicants than their goal number. If a school wants 100 students in their freshman class, do they accept more than 100 because they know some will go to another school? How many would they accept? What happens if everyone accepts the offer? Do smaller BS accept double the number they want because they know they may be a safety school for some students?
Each school has a different turn over rate that has been pretty consistent over the years, that’s how many more students they will accept. If a few more turn down their offer, they tab into their waiting list. If a few less turn down, they get to have an unusually larger class.
Yes, they factor in their “yield rate”. If in the past, roughly only 70% of those offered admission will actual accept the spot and arrive in September, a school looking to fill 100 slots will accept 140 students plus or minus.
Schools try hard not to over enroll, at least not by more than a slim margin, since its hard to squeeze in extra beds in dorms, extra seats in chapel, etc.
That is absolutely true. In general, each school has a historical yield rate of their first round offering. They also have a target of seats that they want to fill.
Anybody know where you might find that kind of info? I would assume the HADES have a very high acceptance rate but what about some of the hidden gems? Has there been a thread in the past?
@VACAlover You can probably use the CC search tool to find threads, if there are any, about hidden gems. Just enter in a few key words like “(insert school name here) yield rate”
I recall seeing that many of the schools report yields in the 70-80% range.
@Rathgar Figuring out how many kids to accept to hit the bullseye on the enrollment is literally the prime directive for the admissions offices. Most schools do an excellent job almost every year. Math. Who knew?
Schools like Deerfield, Hotchkiss, Choate, etc. tend to have yield rates around 50-60%. I suspect only Andover and Exeter are up around 70-80% yield.
We heard some interesting stats from someone re yield: 25% of Exeter applicants really want Andover and 25 % of Andover really wants Exeter. The schools know it and that is the underpinning of their yield formula. LOL.
Andover’s yield rate is generally higher than 80%. My class had an 85% yield, I believe. Last year, we heard that Exeter’s head of school pointed out how more students who get into both Andover and Exeter choose Andover. We had a good laugh about that.
There is a corollary here, too, and I’ll put it out now in advance of the barrage of posts on M11 encouraging everyone who isn’t going to accept a spot at a given school to tell the school asap so a spot is available for their wait-listed student. It doesn’t exactly work that way. There isn’t a one-to-one relationship between turn-downs and the waitlist. A school will not go to the waitlist unless it finds itself underenrolled.
Let’s use @doschicos example: Assume a school has a 60% yield rate and wants to enroll 100 students. That school will offer admission to 140 students hoping to get close to 100 acceptances. If 104 accept, the school has accounted for that and will not go to the wait list. The school will not go to the wait list until at least 41 admitted students turn the acceptance down because it will take 41 rejections before the school finds itself underenrolled. And, if the school is fine with a few less than 100, they may not choose to use their waitlist in that case either. Because the admissions offices at these schools are so good at this math, many do not use their wait lists very often.
If they do go to the waitlist, know that it is unranked, meaning that they will cherry-pick through it to replace the profiles they are missing. For example, if they are missing a male boarder who plays softball or a female day student from outside NE, they will be looking for those profiles in the waitlist.
The waitlist sticky pinned at the top of the board goes through all of this as well as yield info (as they are related) and is an excellent way to wile the time while you wait.
Or someone may want to resurrect The Worry Thread. 
Wow @ChoatieMom! Thanks for explaining it in such detail.
My post isn’t to say that students accepted to a school they don’t plan to attend should dilly-dally in politely notifying that school – please, let those schools know your intentions right away. The sooner all replies (yes or no) are received, the sooner those waitlisted will have a chance, whatever those chances are.
I was talking to someone in admissions tonight and she told me that the last couple of years the yield was higher than it has been historically so they are offering less spots this year.
Let’s think about 4 schools. Each needs to enroll 100 new students each year. Every school ends up fully enrolled. 1,000 students apply to all 4 schools. (Note: This is just a thought exercise, to illustrate concepts. I am not modeling this after any particular school.)
School 1 has an 80% yield rate.
School 2 has a 70% yield rate.
School 3 has a 60% yield rate.
School 4 has a 50% yield rate.
School 1 admits 125 students. Admit rate= 125/1000 = 12.5%
School 2 admits 143 students. Admit rate = 14.3%
School 3 admits 166 students. Admit rate = 16.6 %
School 4 admits 200 students. Admit rate = 20%
There’s lots of overlap between the schools. So it’s possible that 600 students from the original pool might not receive any offers of admission. Some students might receive 4 offers of admission.
Theoretically, the four schools in all might admit only 300 students. There might be many cross-admits. That would mean that some of the 700 students who received waitlist or rejection letters would receive an offer of admission. The students on the waitlist might get a phone call, and need to make a quick decision.
Or, theoretically, they might have no overlap. Everyone might accept their offers. That would mean that School 1 would have to find 25 more beds. School 4 would have to find 100 more beds. They’d have to hire more teachers. It would be chaotic.
The “no overlap” has never happened, to my knowledge. BUT, the schools don’t want to be wildly overenrolled on April 10th. They know students apply to more than one school, they look for students who are likely to like their school, etc.
At the end of the day, they make a rational guess, and hope they’ll meet their targets. Not too many, not too few.
But look at the list. If one student, “P. Snowflake,” accepted to all four schools knows the favorite school right off, his notifying the other three schools of his decision would do very little to “free up a space” for someone else. Only when they fall short of their must-enroll number of 100 are they likely to go to the waitlist.
On March 11, school 2 may know that P. Snowflake won’t enroll. 42 other students have to decline before they even reach their target. They’re likely not to know their number of accepted offers until April 10th.
They might go to the waitlist for targeted skills. For example, if the hockey team needs a goalie, and the 3 goalies they admitted decline the offers on March 13th, the admissions office may go to the waitlist for goalies.
After April 10th, some schools might go to their waitlist. It’s not certain. There have been years with little movement.
Thanks, @Periwinkle, for a better (and more accurate) example.