ED bloodbath?

<p>The figures IDad quoted seem to show an increase in the percentage of kids qualifying for need-based aid. Remember, first year students starting in fall 2008 would have used 2007 income data to qualify for fin aid. Since the recession officially started in December 2007, most families’ income would have begun to show the impact of the recession in 2008 income data, which would affect fin aid for first year students starting in fall 2009. In fall 2009 55% qualified for need based aid, up from 49% in fall 2008. I would expect that to increase further for the class starting in fall 2010, but we won’t have the data for another 10 months or so.</p>

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<p>There are many ways that could happen. Suppose, for example, that a devastating recession made all of your financial aid students decide to transfer to local community colleges. This would leave you with 100% full-pay students, i.e. the percentage of financial aid students would radically decline with no change in need-blind admissions policy whatsover.</p>

<p>Obviously, that’s an extreme example, but I have seen several admissions deans, including Dean Bock, suggest that this kind of trend may be happening in some instances, that increases in need for some students is being offset by other aid-need students simply deciding the economy is too bad to apply to schools like Swarthmore. It’s a complex equation.</p>

<p>Just to be clear, Swarthmore has NOT seen a reduction in the percentage of aid students. It’s 50% this year. It’s fluctuated in a narrow range of 49% to 50% for the last four years and really hasn’t budged for the ten years or so I’ve been following Swat’s stats. Swarthmore did see a bump in need for this year’s entering class (although not as big a bump as they had feared). It will take four years, however, for that bump to fully impact the percentages in the student body.</p>

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<p>I don’t believe I ever said that there would be a $475,000 reduction in financial aid from prior years. If I said that, it was inadvertant. The savings comes relative to projected budgets three years from now. Those budget models include increasing financial aid. In fact, the increases in financial aid discounting are among the most serious budget issues colleges face. They are all trying to slow the growth in financial aid discounting.</p>

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<p>Correct. The actual definition of need-blind, 100% need met is a school that has standing board authorization to spend what it takes to meet 100% need of all students. Swarthmore operates with that standing authorization from its board, for the agreed upon years. For example, as of today, Swarthmore has guaranteed need-blind full need through the Class of 2014 I believe.</p>

<p>That is not to say that Swarthmore doesn’t have a financial aid budget. They have a pretty good idea what financial aid will cost based on ongoing history with their targeted SAT and diversity profiles. They could change those profiles and get a different result. There are schools mentioned in the same breath with Swarthmore that place a lower priority on diversity and a higher priority on enrolling full-pay students – Haverford and Vassar are two that come to mind.</p>