EEB major, chances at grad school admissions

Graduate School
1

I’m a junior studying Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor. I want to start applying to PhD programs in EEB next year, but I’m having trouble figuring out which programs I’d have a good shot at getting into based on my GPA/research experience/etc. Here is my situation:

GPA: 3.64 overall, 3.53 in major (and dropping because I will be getting a C in genetics this semester)
Haven’t taken the GRE yet
I’ve been doing research since the start of my freshman year (but haven’t published any papers)
Peer advisor for Michigan’s UROP program

I’d like to look at Ivy League programs if possible (Princeton, Cornell, Dartmouth) as well as UC Berkeley, but I’m worried I won’t stand a chance at getting into any of these if my GPA drops much lower. I’ve been told that upper division/major GPA generally carries much more weight than overall GPA, so what are my chances at getting into the schools I listed if my upper division/major GPA is much lower than my overall GPA?

Thanks in advance to anyone who is able to offer help!

2

Frankly, those highly selective programs will be a big reach. That does not mean you won’t be able to get into a good program but you need to keep improving your upper level courses.