Based on what I’ve read, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a large increase for new students next year and in following years also. But after the first year, to raise a returning student’s tuition by much more than 5% a year would be pretty catastrophic for a lot of existing students. So, even if OOS tuition does go to $35,000 for an incoming student, the impact for someone who enrolls next year could be much less.
Even so, your point is well taken and UIUC’s guaranteed flat tuition is looking pretty nice, too.
@JBStillFlying Pretty sure those twins you spoke of upthread ended up at Bama. That’s what will start happening, as some regents fear. And, it will have an effect on the incoming student profile…those test scores may take a hit.
@showmetheMAC yes - they did! If I remember correctly that was decided even prior to the tuition increase but I could be misremembering.
It’s interesting about test scores because I took a look at that a few weeks ago (data easily retrievable from OIR). CSE, in particular, saw an increase in average SAT scores. CBS and CLA also increased their average SAT, while CSOM, CFANS and CDes declined. CEHD stayed the same. So a mixed bag. SAT’s are more likely to be submitted by OOS than in-state, so it’s important to look at them. Still, the overwhelming number of applicants submitted the ACT and this really didn’t change at all. Note that test scores are not delineated by OOS vs. In-state, by the way.
Average class rank declined by about a point for half of the colleges but stayed constant for CLA and CSOM while it increased for CSE. Again, not delineated by residency status.
CSE and CLA together make up about 2/3 of the OOS matriculants so changes in these two colleges will drive what happens to tuition increases going forward. Also, if they see that the freshman retention rate will be negatively impacted, they may well decide to continue to cushion the increases for returning students, as @illinoisx3 is hoping. As of this point, however, the 5.5% cap applies just to students who were returning in the 2016/17 academic year (and they are cushioned till 2019/20).
@JBStillFlying Nice analysis. I don’t know how many scholarships UMinn has for OOS kids, but my assumption was that a good number of OOS were awarded scholarships, which requires high stats, which helps drive numbers up. Maybe the pool is not so large as to have a large impact, and the kids who replace them going forward (maybe not as dependent or desirous about merit $) will have equally high stats.
I’m afraid once a school has a kid, they’ve got them. Parents will try to ‘make it work’ when a $3K tuition increase blind-sides them (not because there’s not enough info, but because they are not savvy). That thinking has contributed to the huge student loan debt. I would HATE to pull my kid out of a school after a year of making friends and getting comfortable. I expect retention rates to stay pretty steady.
I was beginning to think that @illinoisx3 may be correct with his average 5% increase, but you seem a little less confident on that. I’m going to split the difference and go with 6.5% estimated.
@showmetheMAC - I actually put in a 10% increase in OOS tuition for next year (vs 7.5% this year) and 6% for the following years for OOS tuition (vs. 5.5% this year), and 4% increases each year for room/board (vs. 3.6% this year) and other expenses. Depending what numbers you use for room/meal plans and other expenses, that works out to about a 6% increase in total cost of attendance each year. I think you’re safe with 6.5% as a worst case increase in TCA each year.
@JBStillFlying - While I am hoping for a lower cap on tuition increases for returning students like they did this year, what I’m really hoping for is a small merit award from UIUC or acceptance and a big aid package from Chicago or WashU. That would give him some very good options to choose among:-)
@illinoisx3 What did you use for Frosh tuition? I was using $26K.
We are in IL too, but did not apply to UIUC. Too many questions there, as you know (not to mention cows ) Still many OOS publics with tuition waivers and large merit if your K has the stats to get the National from UMinn. Good luck!
@illinoisx3 and @showmetheMAC - if more families did the analysis you are doing right now, there would be far fewer sad posts in April because mom and dad finally looked at the numbers and just nixed the “dream school”.
Have no clue on housing but for tuition the analysis that this spreadsheet lover would do would definitely include a 7.5% yearly increase as a minimum because that gets them to about $35,000 in five years time (assuming the base tuition of $23,888 which might be a bit high due to fees, etc.). That’s two years later than their original goal. A 10% rate cuts a year off the timeline so keeps them reasonably consistent with their original goals. A lot has changed since the original announcement in Dec. last year but in the scale-back Kaler arrived at just under 10% (before scaling back again to 7.5% as the final). He mentioned that double-digit increases caused a lot of concern so my guess is he’ll be pushing for a 10% increase for next year. It’s high, but not too high, and it’s supported (or at least not contradicted) by the data.
Whether they decide to keep the 5.5% cap on the future OOS returning students really depends on retention this year. The OIR data doesn’t provide that for 2015-16. We know that the 2014-15 retention rate is 93%. UMN has really worked to increase that and they are very proud of that stat. If retention isn’t affected, then they’ll know that they are safe with 5.5% as a MIN. My reasoning is that some regents will believe that the OOS families can take the hit (5/6 of them didn’t apply for federal loans and/or had incomes over $110,000) and the fact that this discussion will have been in the public square for about 18 months by the time they approve their final budget. My hunch is go with a minimum increase of 5.5% for returning students, a midpoint of 7.5% and a “worst case” of 10%.
So, to recap, 10% increase for next year. Following that, three analyses of 5.5%, 7.5%, and 10%. IMHO, those are reasonable scenarios for the class of 2021.
@illinoisx3 I’m wondering the same about scholarship money sheltering the blow for the enrolled OOS students. That could be the reason why most of the families didn’t take out federal loans. I also agree with @showmetheMAC about stickiness once you matriculate. It’s a hassle to transfer and most won’t. UMN does track time to graduation (4 year and 6 year rates) and they’ve been working on improving those stats with their “four-year guarantee” etc. They won’t know the real impact of the tuition increase on grad rates for several more years - and there are so many factors that impact a decision to transfer that I’m wondering if this is even a primary issue for the regents going forward. Right now they seem to be more focused on getting the class rather than retaining it. So I wouldn’t bank on them scaling back their projections based on retention over the long term.
Hopefully Kaler will announce what they are thinking for next year very soon. They announced the original proposal in mid-December last year, right after the Priority Deadline and it would be great if they could repeat that news release to give everyone some time to prepare.
@showmetheMAC I have the impression that since UIUC and UMN are now both affordable, he probably won’t apply to other state flagship except possibly for WI and MI that have similarly good programs in Physics, Economics and Math. And I suspect the early action outcome of Chicago may determine if he applies to Vandy, WashU, Rice, etc. Well, best I can tell anyway, there could always be a flier for all I know. I’m just making sure he knows how much he will need in loans, internships, jobs, 3rd party scholarships etc if he goes anywhere over what we are contributing. That will cover UIUC, and probably UMN as well, unless tuition increases are above my guesses.
@JBStillFlying Right, though my numbers also outline the difference in tuition increases and total cost. Hopefully a lot will be more clear before decision time in April. Do you happen to know if the National scholarship stacks with any others that might come later, or do you usually get any merit offers at the same time from UMN?
Sorry for the thread hijack, good discussion though!
@illinoisx3, someone on this or another of the UMN threads just received both National and Gold Scholar. It’s very possible to receive two or more scholarships in your merit aid letter but guessing in many cases that there are extenuating circumstances (such as National Merit Semifinalist or another hook). I wouldn’t rule out additional aid money down the road. A lot depends on your personal financial situation and what you communicate to Admissions. Sometimes letting a uni. know that more is needed in order to attend can result in some additional merit and/or need based aid (not sure about UMN specifically but it never hurts to ask). However, you may have to wait till as late as Feb. or March to know for sure what they decide about that - FA info. is released in Feb. and all merit scholarship recipients notified by the end of March.
Just out of curiosity, but what does the Application Tracker change to when you are admitted. Mine says All of your completed materials have been received…etc
@JBStillFlying@illinoisx3 and @showmetheMAC Thank you for this hijacked thread discussion with the great analysis of the potential impact of increased OOS tuition over the next 4 years. D also received the $10,000 National award. She applied with my full knowledge of the upcoming OOS tuition hikes, but I guess I was still hoping that the awards might be tied to tuition increases rather than a flat amount. Even the wording in the award letter seemed to imply that, but I called to verify and it is in fact a flat $10,000 a year. We are a full pay family seeking merit, so the tuition hikes, and the uncertainty, will be a factor in the final decision.
Do you feel it would be safe to assume a 10% max hike per year, with tuition in the final year maxing out at $35,000 as a worst case scenario?
@beyondtx the wording may not have been updated appropriately. They did change the terms of the scholarship from covering the OOS differential to just a flat amount (they also used to require that the student be well within the top 10% of hs class rank but seemed to have dropped that requirement). If there is any ambiguity they should refine the wording further to make it more clear.
A 10% yearly increase seems an extraordinary amount but it does get them to just under $35,000 in four years. Tuition for the following year is approved in May/June so obviously there is plenty of time for all sorts of factors to impact those decisions. Economic health of the state, political (at both state and university levels), and market demand will be primary factors affecting tuition. Hopefully they will provide more clarity with a proposal by spring sometime, when families are making decisions. In the meantime, make sure the spreadsheet can handle multiple scenarios and yes, to me at least, a 10% increase in tuition year over year for the class of 2021 seems like a reasonable estimate for “worst case”. That will allow you to build in cost savings elsewhere or make contingency plans. While it would be wonderful to assume that returning students won’t have to absorb the burden of all the hikes going forward, probably not a good idea to make that a “worst case” assumption.
Kaler initially proposed what came to around a 15% annual increase (Dec. 2015). They scaled that back to just under 10% (citing that “double-digit” increases were unpopular) and then approved 7.5%. I’d use the 7.5% as a “best guess” for annual hikes after a 10% increase the first year. After finding out that there was no negative impact from the initial 7.5% hike, they aren’t going to back down but are more likely to go a bit higher just to see what happens. Expect a 10% increase for next year. Anything less than that is gravy and/or can be reserved to buffer higher-than-expected hikes in future years.
@beyondtx Congratulations on the very generous merit award for your daughter! I agree that it is very unfortunate that they didn’t keep it tied to cover the difference between resident tuition to eliminate the uncertainty. I believe $35K would be an absolute worst case catastrophic scenario for a student who was admitted in 2017. I think $32K in the 4th year would be at the high end of a realistic scenario and is closer to what I’m using. I hope I’m not proven wrong!
Also, I was able to confirm that many other university and privately funded scholarships are yet to be awarded between December and April, as JBStillFlying said.
I also have to reiterate that the staff at Minnesota has been truly exceptional every step of the way. At least from a parent’s view, a step above the rest. Quick, clear answers and call backs every time. In comparison, I’ve had some questions posed to University of Chicago, where you might get a vague answer a few days later. None of that would affect my son’s decision, but still deserving of some kudos.
@illinoisx3 yes, she was very excited about the merit. It makes Minnesota a real option for her. We both enjoyed our visit last year and were impressed by the University and the surrounding area. And as you point out, the people we met were all very nice.
@Seacoast , my son applied in the middle of October. I am very anxious waiting for decisions because he is such an wildcard! He has approximately a 3.3/3.4 GPA but everything else is strong. Strong course load, 36 ACT, NMSF, work experience, volunteer experience and an internship in his intended major- Engineering, which is a tough major. So far he has been rejected from Pitt engineering (admitted to LA) and rejected from Purdue. He has been accepted to U of Alabama and U of Iowa.
) Still many OOS publics with tuition waivers and large merit if your K has the stats to get the National from UMinn. Good luck!