<p>It's astounding just how much more competitive the admission process has gotten compared to just five or 10 years ago. For example, the combined average acceptance rate at the Ivy League in 2004 was 16.65%. For the incoming freshman class in 2009, the rate is 11.9%. I went to one of the Ivies about 10 years ago, and I am absolutely convinced that if I were to apply to my alma mater now, the admission office would have a good laugh and chuck my application into the nearest garbage can.</p>
<p>And this escalating competition extends to most of the top schools: Stanford 13% in 2004 and 7.84% in 2009; MIT 15.9% in 2004 and 10.20% in 2009; Duke 21.4% in 2004 and 18.7% in 2009, and so on. I just feel really bad for current high school students. It seems like they are studying so much more and are much more savvy about the admission process, and yet face a much tougher competition.</p>
<p>So how low can these acceptance rates go? Are we looking at a 7% combined acceptance rate for the Ivies and, like, a 2% rate for the Big H five years from now based on the 2004-2009 trend? Will the trend slow down or even reverse itself at some point?</p>
<p>I think the number of high school graduates is supposed to climax in the next few years and then begin to dip down. I guess we’ll see it becoming more competitive but then relaxing a little.</p>
<p>The rates will stabilize when students and their families approach the frenzy with sanity, by applying to one early decision or early action school where the acceptance rates are more sane.</p>
<p>Remember, it wasn’t THAT long ago when most applications were actual paper forms that you had to mail in. I don’t have concrete evidence for this, but I suspect that people are willing to apply to more colleges now that they can just hop on commonapp.org and fill out ten applications simultaneously.</p>
<p>amarkov: you’re absolutely correct. With the common app, tons of “well, I might as well” applicants toss their stuff to HYPS. It’s literally been a doubling of apps. Some are just due to better outreach – some are from the “super reach applicant” kids who aren’t very competitive. Therefore, the halving of the accept rate.</p>
<p>It wasn’t long ago at all that paper applications were the norm. When I applied to schools in 2002, many people believed that colleges preferred paper applications because they were more “personal.” </p>
<p>For grad school apps four years later, paper wasn’t even an option.</p>