To answer your original question, with the current SAT score, Lafayette and F&M are more low reaches than matches. Gettysburg and Union, more match than safety.
I highly suggest looking into ECSU for a solid safety. The honors program gives full tuition and $2,000 off room and board, and with your daughter’s stats, she would most likely be qualified for it.
Run the net price calculator found on each college’s web site to get an estimate rather than naively assuming some level of financial aid.
Don’t focus on how much the scholarship/financial aid is, but how much is left to pay after the award. The COA at some schools is $40k, so you’d need $20k. At some schools it is $60k, so you’d need $40k.
I told my kids they needed to apply to one instate school. Didn’t have to be the flagship, and there were a lot of choices. In the end they both were accepted to their first choice in the fall (and came in under budget) so never applied to a state school, but they knew the state school might be the only option if they couldn’t find something else that was affordable.
Don’t let your child develop a negative view of all state schools until an affordable is secured. UConn is NOT going to be just like high school, even if every single student in the graduating class heads to Storrs. U of Maine matches tuition so if UConn is totally unacceptable, that’s an option for the same cost. I really doubt UMass will come in under $20k for an OOS student.
Her scores will most likely go up but it there ends up being a mismatch between academic performance and standardizes tests, here is a list of test optional/flexible schools. http://fairtest.org/university/optional However, some will require scores for merit aid.
The Colleges that Change Lives website might be helpful to you.
I do agree that aid can be “all over the place.” I think it is a mistake to focus only on in-state publics. Certainly include them, but there are financial options that are private, whether in state or out.
Another option is to do community college or commute to a school for a couple of years, then attend a top choice.
have you tried several NPC’s? That was a real eye opener for us!
I’d be a bit nervous about Geneseo as a safety with the changes in NY. It might be fine but I’d have a couple more back ups just in case.
Like @manykids2000 mentioned, you should run the NPCs.
Regarding your siblings net costs being all over the place, that could come down to how different schools take home equity into account. When I see big variations, it seems to come down to that.
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with applying to a very well-liked but pricey college or two as long as it’s clear to your D that it’s a no go if the net cost isn’t below the amount you agreed upon. And I think some kids could accept that more easily than others.
DS interests and stats are a very similar. I agree with @wisteria100 about F&M and Lafayette being low reach as well as Union as match. In fact, his final choice came down to these three. In the end, it boiled down to vibe and he chose Lafayette but it was a tough call. Union offered nice merit.
OP, has you D considered Wellesley? They are selective and pricey but they do give a lot of need based financial aid, so for a lot of families they end up cheaper than state schools that may be cheaper on tuition but expensive on R&B.
If she is a 3.7 UW GPA at a private high school taking challenging courses, with a lot of volunteer hours, she may be competitive. But the women’s-only attribute is a turn-off for many.
The cost of attendance at Union is over $66,000 THIS year. This means this student would need over $45,000 in merit aid to bring the cost down to $20,000.
My opinion…that’s not going to happen.
Wellesley is a great school…but absolutely would need to be in the “reach” pile for this student.
Geneseo is a Match. Look at SUNY New Paltz. Also very smallish.
Look at Fairfield. My DD’s stats were similar, family income <100k, best packages Union and Fairfield, brought COA to less than 25,000. Lafayette waitlisted.
@mom2020
Are you saying your daughter got $45,000 in merit aid from Union?
About 20 in merit and 22 in FA. 
Thank you all. I guess i should clarify. The $20,000 is what we’re currently paying for hs, so that’s why I’m comfortable with that figure. I’d certainly prefer to stay at that level for college, but I know we could pinch some additional pennies. Also, I currently only work part time. The school my kids go to has no bussing and they are heavily involved in sports and ECs so it was too hard to work full time and find rides for them. DD has her license now but I have a son who’s a freshman. I could definitely expand my work hours for additional income. Both sets of grandparents have offered to help, though we would rather do it on our own. So while I know we’d be okay at $20,000, we do have some wiggle room there.
For those that missed it in the original post, I did run net price calculators on at least 1/3 of the schools. Most give an EFC of $20,000 to $30,000, which pleasantly surprised me; I thought we’d get zero.
Thanks as well to those who helped categorize the schools correctly. As I said, the information changes depending on the publication you are reading, so it was hard to tell. We’ll err on the side of caution.
Now it’s time to nail down a safety and cull down the list! It’s been difficult because our daughter’s GC pushes about ten schools. She didn’t even seem familiar with some of the smaller LACs in PA, so has been unhelpful with providing information. Also, Naviance isn’t much help since few kids have been admitted/attended those schools.
At most schools, financial aid and merit aid do NOT stack – so, if your EFC is $40,000, and your student gets a $20,000 merit award from the school (or any merit from outside source), it hits the school’s side of the ledger in terms of financial aid, not your EFC. For instance, if the school’s financial aid to you included loans and work study, merit aid typically reduces those to 0. But your EFC is unchanged, you still have to come up with $40k.
Run the NPC at several schools – they are usually very reliable unless there is divorce with non-custodial parent income/assets or a family business, rather than salary from an employer. Do not rely on casual comments from family and friends when it comes to planning for college costs.
Some OOS publics will have lower list price and may have automatic merit awards to encourage OOS students to come. Univ of Pittsburgh is one I hear great things about, but obviously is not a small LAC. Honors colleges/programs at public flagships can also be a way to “shrink” the large school experience, and South Carolina is another one I hear great things about in that regard. Midwest (and some Southern) LACs often have substantially lower sticker price than east coast schools, often $10k or more. The downside is, they may not be able to be as generous with financial aid.
Lastly, on your specific list – I wouldn’t split St Lawrence as a match and Gettysburg as a safety – our experience was that those schools are very comparable in admissions. Be aware that most schools report that the first thing they do is “unweigh” the gpa, so a 3.7 weighted becomes something lower very quickly. Something lower than a 3.7 unweighted with around a 1300 starts to make Hamilton sound more like a high reach, and F&M and Lafayette more like high match/low reaches.
Bottom line, run the NPC with this year’s tax info, and get accurate cost estimates.
Answering your question about safety and Muhlenberg, they very much care about interest. Even if you toured, they want you to interview. They also highlight they use “preferential packaging” so their NPC could be off depending on how well you fit what they are looking for. Agree with another poster that Juniata may be more of a safety.
I’d echo that it helps to run the NPC for each school. It does tend to vary. I think your list is pretty solid (minus maybe the affordability of the LACs) with the exception of Gettysburg as a safety. Maybe I’m wrong, but I think it would be a low reach.