I guess she doesn’t want to add any but how about Goucher? Sorry, couldn’t resist.
Any schools from her list on the Fairtest test-optional list I linked above?
My daughters felt as yours did – hated the thought of urban and/or large schools. But large state schools are really encouraged here on CC, so I just kept cheerfully encouraging them to apply to our flagship (UMass). It was a complete waste of time and fees for us.
Sure, my daughter got in (the other applied early to and will be a sophomore at Mount Holyoke), but we don’t qualify for any aid at UMass so the cost was almost 30k/year, less about 2k because they get free tuition from their state testing scores. (Yes, almost all of the cost at UMass is fees. Don’t get me started).
However, many, MANY good small private LACs ended up being less than that, some significantly, including Franklin and Marshall, Mount Holyoke, Ohio Wesleyan, Goucher, Hobart & William Smith, Clarkson, Agnes Scott, Allegheny…
Daughter ended up at F&M and is thriving in every way. FWIW, the NPC was extremely accurate for us at all of these schools, except in a few pleasant cases where there was some surprise merit. NPCs are very much garbage-in garbage-out, in my experience. If you fill them out properly and run enough of them, you’ll find a great bunch of schools to choose from, and they don’t all have to be large state schools.
Regarding PA schools, my D (and I) really liked UScranton. The majority of her list were LACs in the NE with UMassAmherst as her in-state safety and her only large school. UScranton was the next largest on her list but not nearly as large as UMA as I’m sure you know.
As far as COA, I think you’re going to run closer to the $30K mark with the best merit aid and even more in some cases unless her scores improve significantly. But, I also agree that so long as you have a couple of safeties that she would be HAPPY to attend, you should not limit your list. My D is currently attending a school I told her not to bother to apply to because the COA was way over budget. In the end, they came in with the lowest COA.
@NEPatsGirl do you see a safety on the current list posted by the OP? The only possibility I see is maybe Siena…I think it’s a safety for admissions purposes…but not financial.
Maybe SusquehannaU. They give good financial aid and I believe her stats may make it an academic safety.
I would certainly recommend applying to a couple EA schools that are seen as potential safeties just to have something in your pocket, especially if RD schools are a gamble 
Personally, D had four EA safeties in hand before she applied to her other schools.
The COA of Susquehanna is $54,000 a year. Does the school give $30,000 merit awards?
Like I said earlier…I think this family needs to identify at least one KNOWN safety which includes known affordability.
Then…apply to the others…and see. There have been plenty of reports here of families that were pleasantly happy with the financial aid awards their kids received from schools where they thought the price would be too high.
BUT to the OP…if you really have an annual limit on what you can pay, please convey that to the student now…before applications are sent. Every year, there are parents and students who post here about the “dream schools” or top choices being unaffordable. The kids and parents are often upset that they just can’t make,the finances work.
Based on another post by OP, I think her D has a 3.0uw/3.7w gpa. My children’s school does not weight grades so I am not sure which score colleges look at, but I think some of the safeties/matches are more competitive. Susquehanna does offer significant aid. My friends D received 26k in merit aid with lower stats.
After looking at the college list again, I think the colleges are correctly categorized except Union and Gettysburg as matches instead of safeties. Also, Lafayette as a reach.
I’m going to stand by my first response. The OP said they can afford $20,000 a year and MIGHT be able to stretch a little more.
I don’t see a true safety on this list…at all. The colleges suggested as safeties aren’t likely going to give this student $30,000 or more in merit aid.
We’re going to look at UMaine (can go for price of UConn tuition) and East Conn as possible financial safeties. They should both be academic safeties as well.
UConn and Maine would be within your $20,000 price point IF your student also takes the $5500 Direct Loan. Eastern would be IN that price point.
But you said your kid hated UConn. What exactly did she hate about it?
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Safety: Wheaton (MA-open curriculum), Siena, Union (NY), Gettysburg, Muhlenberg, Susquehanna, Ursinus, UScranton, Washington & Jefferson (may come off—possibly too far)
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Can you tell us how these are safeties when the costs are far beyond 20 K per year
@thumper1: Didn’t like UConn due to size. She wants a small LAC and that is just not UConn. Lots of kids from her HS go there. Lots of kids from our town go there. We live close. She wants a different experience; really would like oos. If she had to choose a state school for financial reasons it would probably be Eastern because it’s smaller and it’s liberal arts. Unfortunately it’s also not far from home, but she knows she needs options at a low price point and at least the school itself is somewhat what she’s looking for.
@mom2collegekids: the schools were categorized by academic viability only. She’s looking for some financial safeties.
There have been several people in this thread that stated that some pvt schools come in lower than state publics. Actually there are other threads on CC that say that too. Obviously there’s no guarantee, but it happens. I’ve noted we can likely go over the $20,000. I may decide to go full time at my job, which would cover her entire tuition. Those things still need to be figured out. Right now we’re working with the $20,000 figure. But as long as dd has one financial safety she’d be happy with, I have no issues with her applying to other places she’d rather go to.
A college that is only affordable if she earns a large enough competitive merit scholarship should have the reach/match/safety assessment based on the scholarship (which usually means reach), not admission.
In other words, some of the admission safeties will move to the reach category when the need to earn a large enough merit scholarship is considered.
There are a few small schools in Canada which would fit your criteria, be borderline safeties (certainly no worse than solid matches), and would be only slightly over US$20,000 per year. However, with your being in Connecticut, all would either be a long drive (or short flight), or be an English university in a French province. Also, the small schools in Canada are not well known in the US (although to be honest, living in New England I had not heard of Geneseo either until this thread).
@DadTwoGirls Agreed – Mount Allison has an LAC feel with about 2k students, is an absolute gem and very well respected in Canada, although not well known here. There’s regrettably little about it available on sites like this, but Wikipedia helps. It ended up pretty high up on my daughter’s list. We’re in MA and it was a LONG drive to visit, not one I’d want to do every day, but then we squeezed it in over a weekend in February. They also mail out a virtual reality headset that attaches to your phone and you can “walk” through the campus, although I can’t remember if she got that before or after she was accepted.
The OP states (in #36) that multiple net price calculations indicate an EFC of $20K-$30K (apparently for private schools after need-based FA). If you add “self-help” (loans, work-study) to the $20K she says she can afford, then she ought to be able to cover EFCs in that range.
An in-state public university may or may not deliver a lower net cost. If you’re getting an EFC of ~$20K from a “full need” school like Franklin & Marshall, then maybe the family income is close to $100K. In that case, UConn (Storrs) probably will offer very little grant aid; the UConn net price may be close to $30K. So yes, some high-sticker private schools may be cheaper (assuming you get in, of course). The devil is in the details, but it seems to me they are not far off track with their college list (as long as it includes at least 1 or 2 true admission and financial safeties that this student would be happy to attend.)
She might get up to $20,000 merit at Duquesne, and they gave a $4,000 dorm scholarship as well.
Need based grants would depend on FAFSA EFC.
Also St Francis U in PA maybe.
The net price calculators give a net price. This includes any federally funded loans or work study for whochnthe student is eligible. It would also include Pell Grants or potential SEOG.
The net cost would already have the loans and work study factored in. Work Study and those loans ARE part ot need based aid.