As an Ivy grad who just attended his 25th reunion at Penn, I’d still vote for fit any day. Prestige is illusory, IMO.
Fit is important IMO, meaning my daughter who loves the city and isn’t a sports fanatic is very happy with American University and may or may not have been as happy at a huge state school in the middle of nowhere. And my other daughter who isn’t into parties and is a bit quiet and wants a nurturing environment will do well we think at Lafayette College and maybe also not as well at that huge State U. Though it doesn’t mean they couldn’t also thrive at the latter, just that these two schools seem to “fit” their personalities and needs at this time.
I don’t find the term fit to be overused or overemphasized. What I don’t agree with is the sentiment that kids will end up where they are meant to be. That may be nice to say to someone who didn’t get into their top choice, but it isn’t always true. Some kids just never love their school and some will transfer. Both are okay as well. I encouraged my kids to try to find the “best” school for them, but also said that many people, I included, didn’t love their Alma mater (good school, just not the right “fit” for me in hindsight) and have still gone on to have happy productive lives…
If you can find prestige and fit in one, great, but fit over prestige any day unless the two are very very close, then it probably doesn’t matter.