<p>Please remember that this is an anonymous public board, and sometimes people are not completely honest. </p>
<p>I agree that the applicants on this board are, in general, very bright. But they are people, and some people do not like to broadcast failures and might exaggerate successes. I know many posters are very honest, so I don’t mean to imply that you cannot believe anything; I just want to point out that you cannot believe everything.</p>
<p>OP - I know you suggested that it might not be accurate, but I just wanted to point this out again before some wishful thinkers conclude that their chances are 50% by virtue of being on cc.</p>