Not sure if you really mean random and chance, but that is not the way it works. Yes, people get considered by exceeding certain thresholds, but after that point it is who differentiates themselves and that is not random or chance.
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Looking at academics in isolation, it would be attractive to most. Note that AO’s do not look at academics in isolation.
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It’s who differentiates themselves based on factors that are not known to the applicants. Hence it is random to those applying. Hitting factors adcoms value is based on luck, not knowable prospective planning. Those who suggest otherwise should disclose the secret sauce they claim exists.
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Respect your opinion, but can’t agree with it. By that rationale, everything in the world without a published rubric is random.
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It’s not that it’s random to everybody. It clearly isn’t. It is random to the applicant though (beyond meeting the academic litmus test) because they don’t know the metric(s) being used to rank applicants. You can’t plan to become better if you don’t have a concrete idea of what better is.
What you really want to do is look in to the specific of both the IB option and non-IB option. IB varies from school to school, in terms of which courses are offered, and which are offered HL and/or SL. For example, a student whose favorite and strongest subjects are math and science may not find an IB program where math and science are only offered as SL to be very suitable. Of course, the non-IB option varies from school to school as well. In some schools, it may offer a high rigor path for those who do not want to do IB, but in other schools, it may be expected that all strong students choose IB, so it does not offer as high rigor.
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We are lucky as I understand the IB program at DD’s high school is extremely rigorous. She is taking a blend of IBs and APs, to ensure she is taking HL type classes regardless of whether it is IB or AP.
I have to confess that I am relying on her and advisers to make the right decision! I do find the discussion about HL and SL to be daunting, but DD is pretty wise. She’s carrying an exceptional load and doing extremely well. I do want her to pace herself going forward. And I trust her decisions in course selection. The few that I have had my doubts on were the times I specifically asked her to check with her school counsellor/adviser.
It may be random to an applicant only if they don’t know enough about what various colleges look for. I think an experienced eye, looking at profiles, can come up with half-way decent chancing predictions based on round, schools, hooks, and overall profile.
The short answer is that an average excellent kid will have a very tough time in the RD round at tippy-tops but kids that have stuff in their profile that pop out (they have stuff that the vast majority of average excellent kids don’t have) will likely do well.
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HL means Higher Level, while SL means Standard Level. I.e. an HL course will cover more advanced material than an SL course, and an HL score is much more likely to give advanced placement upon entering college.
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That much I do understand! But beyond that, it gets complex for me. DD is going for the IB Diploma, but is taking a healthy mix of APs to boot in addition to the many HLs her school is offering.
I did attend a recent presentation about the school’s IB program. It was brilliantly done, but very different than the non-IB world I am accustomed to.
DD is greatly underestimating the workload involved with IBDP, IMO.
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She’s an A+ student after 2 years, and I have every confidence that she will do fine.
And SE, you’ve obviously been through the IB Diploma course: are you saying that an IB Diploma student shouldn’t take APs?
IB is new to me (I didn’t do this years ago when I was in high school), so I have no way of knowing. My understanding is that DD is following a track blazed by several other IB students in her school. So, any guidance on why you say this would be welcome.
Thanks.
Without knowing the school’s IB offerings, and which 6 she plans to take, and why and which AP she wants to take, it’s hard to say that it’s a bad idea to add APs.
What I can say is that 6 IB courses plus ToK plus EE is a crap ton of work.
And I don’t know what colleges she is targeting, but this will not leave time for any meaningful ECs. Top colleges are looking for more than just rigor and grades.
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Yeah, I was going to add that that is an impressive workload if she can pull it off with good marks. Far more than a typical applicant. But I don’t see that leaving her with much in the way of time for ECs.
So it may not actually be helpful for admission to tippy-tops.
But it comes down to priorities. Getting in to a private tippy-top isn’t the end-all be-all of life, she could get a good amount of college credit, and she’d get a good foundation heading in to college.
Thanks, @PurpleTitan and @skieurope . That’s real food for thought.
She’s got a healthy number of ECs and sports, to add to her academic achievements. That being said, I don’t want her to overdo it. I really don’t fully comprehend the complexities of IB and how it relates to the world I knew (APs and honors classes). Based on this, I will try to focus a bit more on DD’s schedule and make sure she’s not overloaded.
DD is pretty shrewd,and I know she has discussed her schedule with her advisors and upper classmate friends. It does concern me, though, that two CC stalwarts raise these issues, and that’s enough for me to dig a little deeper.
Thanks!
Nor should it be, because even the best students with really strong ECs, are at a disadvantage, based on the odds. That’s assuming we’re setting hooked students aside, because that is out of most students’ control.
I know a student who got into Harvard and Yale, but was rejected by Stanford, ironically, his top choice. By the logic that there’s knowable, merit based, full objectivity in the process, he should have been admitted to all three. After all, if he’s was good enough for Harvard and Yale, why not good enough for Stanford?
The best non-hooked students can hope for is a “halfway decent chance.”
I am truly fed up with “tippy top” schools. I went to them for undergrad and law, but it is absolutely not relevant to who I am today (such as it is 
).
I want my children to find a school where they can grow and find out their potential. That doesn’t have to be a top school.
If it is, so be it; if it isn’t, so be it. Life is what you make it. I know crap Ivy Leaguers and wonderful state schoolers, and vice-versa. College and grad school is merely a task in life. If you make it something more, that’s what it’s all about REGARDLESS of where you go.
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Seems like the title question is not really what you need to ask… the question to ask is whether the IB program is the best fit option for your student at the high school, which would involve a deeper dive into the IB and non-IB course offerings.
You must have seen the presentation with the concentric circles, “clearly” explaining the IB program. Our son graduated with an IB diploma two years ago, but I am still not sure I fully understand it all. It can be tricky. We had a situation where he was placed in a language class that was too difficult for him and were informed that he could not move back down to a non-native level unless he received a 3 grade. So he hung in there and finished, but he now refuses to study any language in college, which feels like a loss. So you need to be careful. IB is an international organization and the individual schools have only limited flexibility within those rules. I think that is probably part of the attraction for colleges - because much of the grading is done by outside IB evaluators, there is a somewhat uniform standard. Particularly if an applicant is from a high school the AOs do not know well, that might give them some confidence. I suppose that AP scores would have the same effect. In our case, my son specifically chose an IB school over an AP school because he thought the IB approach, which is heavy on research and writing, was a better fit for him than the AP testing regime. I don’t think we fully understood what he was getting into - as @skieurope says, it is a LOT of work - but it was a good decision for him, and I do believe it helped him when he applied to college. His school is international, and AOs might never have seen a candidate from his school before, but he had very good success. More importantly, the IB program prepared him very well for college-level work.