<p>This was in response to another incorrect statement on probabilities, and it’s on the right track but still not quite correct- the odds improve with more throws of the dice but are not “additive”. My statistics OCD forces me to respond, and I’ll try to tie it back to the thread topic.</p>
<p>The odds of rolling doubles at least once in multiple attempts are calculated as: 1 minus the odds of not rolling any doubles. So for two throws that would be (1 - (5/6*5/6) or 31% (it’s just coincidence that 31% is close to 2/6; the numbers start to deviate with more throws). Continuing on for 6 rolls the odds would be 67%.</p>
<p>Ok, this may seem a crass metaphor, but kids applying to schools can be thought of kind of like dice. But think weighted dice of the type used by hustlers; some kids are favorably weighted and more likely to “roll doubles”, and some kids are less likely. The kids that are favorably weighted have a higher probability of getting accepted when they apply to multiple schools, to the point that they get multiple acceptances. The “poorly weighted” kid’s chances also increase with multiple applications, but his odds start low and stay low. So you end up with this distribution where one lucky guy “runs the table” and others (most?) end up with the OP’s so-called “full shutout”, and some are in the middle.</p>
<p>“FULL SHUT OUT!!! When in fact OP’s son was admitted to Vandy, Emory, UNC, UVA etc…”
Sounds ungrateful, if you ask me.</p>
<p>Everything happens for a reason, he might be shutout of the IVY’s but he has several other GREAT options. There are thousands of other students wishing they had a shot in one of the name schools.
I say it’s always a good thing to share the goodness and celebrate it, than dwell on the negative. Hopefully OP’s son appreciates that he has been blessed with these acceptances.
Best of luck to OP’s son, wherever he chooses to go. </p>
<p>Wow - the OP said he meant shut out of the ivies - he said his son is happy with the choices. can you all just back off and cut the poor guy some slack. so, he mis worded the title (he said he is new and has only 6 posts to his credit) - does not make him some scheming ungrateful wretch. and he is entitled to his opinion if he thinks that the ivies are >> Vandy – just like you think that the ivies are = vandy. he is disappointed and is hurting at see his kid’s dream of getting into the ivies not being fulfilled. I see nothing wrong in his post.</p>
<p>“On some thread recently, a student posted that his/her sibling applied to 26 colleges. And it’s not unusual for posters to mention their kids having applied to 10 or more colleges. So I guess applying to the magic 8 and getting in is harvesting when it’s one type of student, but ok if it’s one of the CC golden children.”</p>
<p>There’s one really good reason for a freshman with a good record to apply to 10+ schools: the search for merit aid. It’s quite unpredictable which private school may come through with an especially generous merit offer.</p>
<p>The thing about the Ivies, though, is that they all calculate aid in roughly the same way and are all very generous, with Princeton ranking first or second in largesse. So there aren’t going to be any surprises there. Once you get in early to Princeton, I don’t see any good reason to pursue RD admission to seven other universities with the same or less generous need-based aid. (If you had a high EFC and wanted to go after merit, that would be a different story.)</p>
<p>I have never seen a thread on CC where someone was applying to 10+ additional schools with an HYPS ticket in hand. That’s a complete game-changer. Anybody who was in at Princeton early and stated an intention to apply to the seven other Ivies RD would face a gauntlet of criticism around here.</p>
<p>@CUPKSDAD: Glad to see you express so much anger on his behalf…OP’s son will not be the first nor last to get “SHUT OUT” from IVY’s. Eitherway… I hear…entitlement. Did not know people feel entitled to the IVY’s. OP’s son was rejected by the IVY’s he applied to, but has Vandy, Emory, UVA etc to choose from…all I am saying is…he should not dwell on the negative, rather, should appreciate what is in front of him,“BLESSINGS”.
Next please.!!!</p>
<p>@mobius911, I’m glad you replied because that was driving me crazy and I was going to say the same thing.</p>
<p>And to keep this on topic, @Commanderz…I sympathize with you and your son. Sure, he got into some great colleges, but it’s normal to feel disappointed when you don’t get into your first choice(s). Hopefully he really likes some of his other choices and is overcoming the disappointment to get excited about the great decision he has before him.</p>
<p>D1 (college junior), talking about a friend at Emory: “he feels like he’s been given the keys to any sportscar he wants to try”. Meaning he feels like he’s got limitless opportunities.</p>
<p>I don’t think people are that illogical, or at least people on CC. I think people do some kind of a mental calculation on where they think they would fall in the applicant pool. </p>
<p>Wow - go Vandy. 75th percentile for admitted students is 800 CR, 800 Math? 11 percent acceptance rate? I hope the numbers will help to convince some folks that Vandy is not a second-best option. I believe that at least two Ivies recorded higher acceptance rates; and of course no school can have a higher 75th percentile for CR/Math. Yes, the admitted student profile will probably be adjusted, but we Vandy fans are happy to see the school attracting the kind of applicants that have always received a great education there.</p>
I want to echo this point. I am one of those who has supported applying to a lot of schools, if what you really want is a highly selective school. I was just looking at a report from a kid accepted at Princeton and Caltech, rejected Harvard and Yale, waitlisted Brown, Chicago, UWSTL (and other results). You just can’t predict how these will fall out. But I agree–if you get in SCEA to HYPS, then you should really be withdrawing at least some of your other applications–particularly to those that don’t give aid that matches those schools.</p>
<p>Both my kids withdrew/did not complete apps to schools at the top of their lists after they got excellent results in Early Action. Didn’t have to say a word; both felt it would be inappropriate to take spots for the sake of adding to the total acceptances.</p>
<p>"You would need to know how many 800’s Vandy rejected, and how many of 800’s who were accepted actually attend. "</p>
<p>Lots. Vandy is a very appealing school on a lot of dimensions. Frankly I find it kind of odd that it’s being “distinguished” from the Ivies. It’s all the same in the big picture - top 20 universities, best in the land, tonsof opportunities.</p>
<p>And, for whatever it’s worth, there are some of us who consider UVA even more appealing than Vanderbilt, although the choice between the two may depend on the student’s intended major. </p>