<p>If I have roughly a 30% chance at 5 schools, what are the chances that I get accepted into 1,2,3,4,and all 5 of them?</p>
<p>Asked and answered many times. Mathematical probability is based on the assumption of independent events, college admissions decisions are far from independent.</p>
<p>come on, how do you?</p>
<p>P(n)=(3/10)^n<em>(7/10)^(5-n)</em>nPr (5,2)</p>
<p>I think.</p>
<p>Disclaimer: I’ve never taken stats.</p>
<p>what does n and Pr stand for. sorry, i haven’t taken stats either</p>
<p>n is the variable. nPr (a,b) lists the number of possible permutations for a choices to fit into b total items.</p>
<p>Though given that definition, my formula’s incorrect…so ignore it. Haha.</p>
<p>Hello everyone on College Confidential.
“Mathematical probability is based on the assumption of independent events, college admissions decisions are far from independent.”
I couldn’t have stated it better.
saints2009: If there was an equation, then applying to one college would mean that you would have a near 100% of entering that college… then everyone would only apply to their favorite college and acceptance rates will be less than 0.1% at every college.</p>
<p>Isn’t it great that strings (string theory) or the Creator (general term to remove all religious tension)control the probability of events and not theoretical mathematical probability? I think it is…</p>
<p>He’s asking a mathematical question. Assuming there was a concrete 30% chance at each school, what are the chances of x, y, and z?</p>
<p>0 acceptances: .16807
1 acceptances: .36015
2 acceptances: .3087
3 acceptances: .1323
4 acceptances: .02835
5 acceptances: .00243</p>
<p>Enjoy.</p>
<p>Note: This assumes an exact 30% acceptance at each school and everything else constant.
Edit: What’s important to note is that even at 30%, there is a strong likelihood of getting rejected at all the schools. This means that at top schools with around 8% acceptance rates and assuming that the probability of your acceptance was based on the average acceptance rate, there is a very strong likelihood that applying to the top 10 most selective schools will grant all 10 rejections.</p>
<p>It’s just P(accepted to n schools) =(0.3)^n</p>
<p>actually i was incorrect. embarassing.</p>
<p>@ saints2009: 0.83193/1.</p>
<p>187 (I meant the screen name) gave the correct answer. =)</p>
<p>@ mathematicism: it should not include the probability of not getting in anywhere.</p>
<p>At least 1 school = Probability of 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5</p>
<p>@ BlizzaP-that would mean I have a 150% chance, which is definitely not possible</p>
<p>At least 1 is 1 - (.7)^5 = 0.832</p>