<p>I will give you a long form response for others who might be in the same situation:</p>
<p>1) Dont talk to Victor Lima / Grace Hammond or any other advisor / professor in the department until you more thoroughly understand your own goals, the coursework that different caliber departments respectively look for, and the statistical odds or getting into various programs. In general, you should come to a conversation about pre-PhD goals well prepared, as it is in many ways an interview about recommendations letters in addition to a conversation about your goals. You are in direct competition with other undergraduates who are seeking support for their applications down the road, and professors dont write recommendations for every strong student since the more they write, the less clout is given to each (think about it: students all apply to the same programs, and hence a professor who recommends 20 students is doing no one a favor). They also talk to each other to ensure that the best applicants from Chicago are getting coordinated support. </p>
<p>2) Bad news first: While a 3.5 is very respectable in the college (it puts you in like the top quarter of your class), it is far short of what you need in the PhD admissions market. For a top 10-ish department (so the big five plus Yale, Berkeley, Columbia, Penn, Northwestern) you need to be nearly flawless GPA-wise, surely Phi Beta Kappa material overall, honors thesis, and a straight A student in demanding math sequences (full year of analysis certainly, plus some higher level courses to prove that was not an aberration). Some graduate coursework (PhD price theory or stat courses are most common) and rec letters linked to RA work is also pretty common these days. Several other strong applicants from Chicago will have these points and you will be compared against their CVs. It is no uncommon to see students with these numbers end up with only one or two offers from the top 10. </p>
<p>You would also be a long shot (but it would still be worth applying) at top 30 universities that are otherwise generically prestigious outside of economics (NYU, Cornell, Brown, Caltech, Michigan, Duke, Hopkins), since especially amongst applicants from selective colleges, many skip over top 30 departments that are not linked to strong schools in general (and thus competition at the aforementioned programs is more intense). International applicants tend to canvass the top 40 or so pretty thoroughly without regard to non-academic cache. </p>
<p>3) So some good news: a 3.5, assuming your math grades are principally As, and you put in the effort to do more than one RA positions with professors from which strong recommendations are garnered, probably lands you a spot in at least one large, state university in the top 40 (e.g., Maryland, Minnesota, a UC system school like San Diego) or so or a weaker private school (e.g., WUSTL, BC, GWU). Many of these programs have large cohorts and aim to balance out the preponderance of ESL students with some US graduates from top colleges, if only to ensure there are sufficient numbers of viable instructors for undergraduate courses down the road (at a school like UCLA, you would not just TA, you would actually teach undergraduates very early on in your time as a PhD student). </p>
<p>4) Which raises a separate matter: a 3.5 is very marketable in the elite university masters market for economics, public policy, finance, business, etc., and you should give some thought to if this might be more fitting for you. Two points to consider is that first, for most private / public sector roles a masters is still the right degree vs. a Ph.D., and second, there are numerous masters programs that permit PhD level coursework to be taken (if rigor is your cup of tea). Dont think for a minute you have to get a PhD in economics or quanty public policy to do degree bearing doctoral work in those fields. For example, well prepared MBA students at Booth and MPP students at the Harris School take and do well in PhD courses in the economics department at Chicago, even though they never could have been admitted to the PhD program. </p>
<p>I close with two hints: Look at the CVs of job candidates / current graduate students who are like you on PhD program websites. This will give you a sense of where you fit in resume wise. By like you, I mean the CVs of students from other selective colleges (not foreign schools) who are the same gender (women get a boost) and nationality as you. URM status is a major plus, but URMs are exceedingly rare in the profession apart from Latin students from Latin America (which are ubiquitous). I think you will find my claims above about admissions fitting.</p>
<p>Second, read some of the guides to being a PhD student in economics written by professors and students from good departments that are floating around on the internet. Dont dismiss the claims they make, as they are largely accurate. If they dont read well to you (e.g., I didnt really find real analysis interesting, I would not be happy teaching at a business school down the road if I cannot find an economics appointment), then consider other options.</p>