<p>A few observations.</p>
<p>(1) These numbers are not affected by transfers. That is to say, a 4 year graduation rate is simply what percentage of freshman graduated in 4 years -- with the non graduates being either transfers or those who were still enrolled (or perhaps on leave) but intending to complete the program. Reed calculates this like every other school.</p>
<p>(2) It is quite common to compare 6 year rates, but I can see why you would be interested in the 4 year rates. The 6 year rates essentially tell you what percentage of the entering cohort ever graduate from that school (since relatively few get their degrees after 6 years), the remainder therefore being those who transferred, dropped out, or had health or financial problems and continue to stretch out their programs.</p>
<p>(3) Regarding the 6-year rates, you have to put them into historical perspective. The 75% 6-year rate that you mention could refer to either the freshman (entering) class of 2000 or the freshman class of 2001 (the 75% 6-year rate was the same for both of these entering cohorts).</p>
<p>If you were able to find CDS data for 8-10 years ago, you would find 6-year rates of about 65%, and for 4 or 5 years ago rates of about 70%. What this means is that Reed has been improving its graduation rates. </p>
<p>This is due to several factors, I believe. More financial aid, greater selectivity on admissions (both because of more applicants overall and because the admissions office is able to find more applicants who are a good fit to Reed's demanding program), and improvements in the "quality of life" or "campus climate" in an effort that is continuing this year, for example, with a substantial expansion of available on-campus housing.</p>
<p>(4) I think that as a rule of thumb the percentage who fail to return for their second year is roughly half the percentage who fail to graduate in 6 years (i.e., it's kind of a "leading indicator" of the eventual graduation rate). The last time I calculated this some years ago, Reed's 6-year graduation rate was 70%, and its first-year retention rate was 85%. So 15% didn't return for second year, and 30% overall from the initial cohort didn't graduate in 6 years.</p>
<p>One thing Reed has focused on is cutting that first-year attrition. What you see now is that 91% of the 2006 cohort returned for their second year (the current academic year), i.e., 9% left or at least didn't enroll for their sophomore years. (See the Reed 2007-2008 CDS here: <a href="http://www.reed.edu/ir/cds/cds0708/cdssecb200708.html%5B/url%5D">http://www.reed.edu/ir/cds/cds0708/cdssecb200708.html</a> ).</p>
<p>If my rule of thumb is roughly true, then the 6-year graduation rate for the 2006 entering class (cohort) would likely end up at about 82%. This is suggestive of continued improvement in Reed's retention (reduction of attrition). As an alum, I'm hoping for continuing improvement in this percentage for next year and beyond.</p>
<p>(5) This brings us to the remaining issue: why is Reed's 6-year graduation rate comparatively low. If it indeed is trending up so that for the entering cohort of 2006, some 82% will graduate, and if the trend continues upward, then Reed is not nearly as far out of line with peer institutions as it once was. But even if for the 2007 cohort it ends up in the low 80's,it's lower than some of those that have 90%+ graduation rates.</p>
<p>By way of explanation, it's convenient to say that Reed has one of the most demanding academic programs in the country. I think that's a possible factor. (Also see Caltech's 6-year graduation rate for comparison: last time I looked it was in the 85-88% range.) But there are some very demanding programs (e.g., Swarthmore) with 6-year graduation rates in the mid-90% range. I think that while the academic demandingness is indeed a factor, "fit" has more to do with it, in that some students just don't fully appreciate the type of program Reed offers, and further that in past years (but less so in recent years as application numbers have soared) Reed's admissions committee was more willing to take a chance on "underachievers" who had very high test scores but less than stellar high-school grades. </p>
<p>And I think another factor is that Reed has not been able to guarantee financial aid that meets 100% of need. So those students who come but struggle or take a while to adjust academically -- and who also need financial aid -- may sometimes transfer out after a year. In recent years, however, Reed has been upping its financial aid (and focusing more of its endowment on just this) and on other factors that affect retention, and that's why we're seeing the improvements. </p>
<p>What they haven't done, to my knowledge, is to dumb down the academics (I'd still love to go there again!), but at the same time they're trying to broaden curricular options in a variety of ways including in the arts, they've reduced the student-faculty ratio, and they've focused on making more permanent (tenure-stream) appointments rather than adjuncts, all to provide a more supportive environment for students.</p>
<p>So there you have my long answer to your question. I've thought about this a lot. Others may have additional insights for you.</p>