Harvard and Stanford NPC

I’ve got a list of schools I love, 9 schools, with a good balance of safeties, matches, and reaches. I’m adding a couple of schools that are more affordable and are closer home to it. Harvard’s 9K cheaper than the cheapest school on the first list and Stanford’s 5K cheaper. However, both of their NPCs seemed really simplistic- too simplistic to be accurate even. Can anyone speak to its accuracy? I’m “competitive” for them, but I know that acceptance is still ultimately extremely unpredictable. I’m not too attached to either one of them, and I don’t want to go through the application process, maybe get accepted, only to find out it isn’t as affordable as I thought.

Both of those schools are among the better endowed and have absolutely fantastic FA. If you have non-custodial parents with a home business the NPC estimates may be off.