Help me make the most important decision of my life...

So, UChicago is really awesome and I really want to go there. But the thing is, i don’t know if to apply ED2 or RD. Some say ED2 increases chances, others say its harder to get in since its filled with HYPSM rejects. http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/what-my-chances/2046312-please-chance-me-for-caltech-mit-princeton-university-of-chicago-ucsb-ccs-physics-p1.html?new=1
Here are my stats btw. I really really need help making this decision, and ANY input is appreciated.

The most important decision of your life is who you’re going to spend it with, not which particular application you send to one particular college…

Ask your guidance counselor.

Ok i may have exaggerated a bit, help me make one of the moderately important decisions of my life.

Well, my family is a nerdy bunch so we often use game theory and flow charts to discuss alternatives. Here are some of the things you’d need to consider to make this decision:

  • Would you be equally as satisfied at all your options and would all your options give you the degree and network you'll need?
  • If the answer to question #1 is no, then see what you can do to increase your chances to get into the schools that check those boxes for you.
  • If the answer to question #2 is yes, then you might be best served to figure out which of your options gives you the incrementally largest boost. For example, Princeton doesn't offer ED2, so there's no potential advantage to be gained there. UChicago does, and if last year was an indication of how admissions will go this year, significantly more applicants were accepted ED2 than RD. Harder to tell if the applicant pools are substantially the same, though so that's an unknown. But general consensus/guess appears to be that UChicago heavily prefers applicants who have UChicago as their first choice - demonstrated interest and ED offer an advantage.
  • We didn't research some of the others on your list because they weren't a fit for my son's goals, but you should look to see how close a fit you are to their students before you decide if ED would help you elsewhere (if it's even offered.) For example, for UChicago your SAT is low - in the bottom 25%, which could be a challenge. But on the plus side, you have some really interesting outside activities and if you can write awesome essays about how you grew and explored those that is an absolute fit for UChicago (more so than the kid with a 1600 SAT but only cookie cutter ECs).
  • One other factor that seems to weigh heavily at UChicago is teacher recommendations. If you can get kick butt recommendations about what type of student you are and that fits with what UChicago is looking for - they like students who will go beyond just doing all the work and getting an A, they want questioners, explorers, people who are genuinely inquisitive and are the type of person teachers want to teach - then that would be a boost, too.

Bottom line is nobody can tell you if this is the right choice for you. You’ll need to do the work to figure out what you want, what you offer and how that fits into what advantages you’d receive from applying ED vs RD at the various options.

Hint… if you find this type of mental exercise interesting and didn’t go unconscious when I mentioned game theory, that’s a pretty good sign you’d like and fit at UChicago. :slight_smile:

That’s real funny you mention that because I’m working on a decision tree as we speak lol…
Edit: Know of a good software for it? I’ve been doing it by hand and it gets annoying

We do it by hand on a white board. We’re Old School Nerds. B-)

By the way, have fun with the decision tree and the mental exercise, but don’t get too wrapped around the axle by any of this. You are obviously intelligent and will do well at most any college you go to. This is not the most important decision or thing that will happen to you - not by a long shot. It’s one step in a marathon.

Sites like this can give you things to think about but none of us are experts on each college or on your particular situation. So use this type of input to spur your other paths of inquiry, not to push you in a direction, give you false hope, discourage you or any other really important thing.

Good luck.

ED2 will likely increase admission chances IMO.

Do you guys know when ED2 financial aid packages get sent if you’re accepted to uchicago ed2?

@karl447: what you need is called a Monte Carlo simulation. This can be done on a crude level using Excel. Just google it and you’ll see some examples. Monte Carlo is done frequently for retirement planning. Its just basically a series of ‘what if’ questions with probabilities assigned to each.

But this can easily be adapted to college decision making process.

  1. Whether to apply to a particular hyper-selective college, ED or RD, is hardly one of the most important decisions of your life. Either way, chances are that you will ultimately never have an opportunity to attend that college. Maybe you will. Choosing safety schools to which to apply is far more important, because there's a much greater likelihood that in the end that's where you will go to college. But even then, it's not that important.

The really important decisions you will make about college are what you do when you are in college, not which college you go to. Based on the choices you make, you can get as much value out of practically any college in America as you could out of Harvard, or you can get as little value out of Harvard (or Chicago) as you could by not going to college at all. (And just to make it clear, by “value” I don’t mean only post-college earning capacity, I mean education and intellectual and social growth.)

  1. You don't need a Monte Carlo simulation. A Monte Carlo simulation will probably tell you that it's overwhelmingly likely that you are not going to the University of Chicago no matter what you do. However, it would also probably tell you that the likelihood of rejection is somewhat less overwhelming if you apply EDII, by a meaningful margin.
  2. If you have submitted all of your financial aid information on time, you should receive your tentative financial aid award simultaneously with your EDII acceptance, if you are accepted. Although EDII is "binding," you can in fact turn it down if you don't receive sufficient financial aid. You won't have to commit to any ED school definitively until at least a couple of weeks after you get your financial aid offer (unless, essentially, you waive a financial aid offer by failing to provide the necessary information). You are the ultimate judge whether the financial aid offer is workable. But if you turn down an ED acceptance on that basis, you can't come back to it later if you don't like any of your other options better in the RD round.

I’m sure many Ivy rejects apply ED II but still you’re compared to everyone. You wouldn’t be rejected ED with higher stats over someone with lower stats RD. It could only serve as an advantage.

“Do you guys know when ED2 financial aid packages get sent if you’re accepted to uchicago ed2?”

My D was accepted EDII last year (incidentally she was NOT an Ivy-reject but a deferred EA from Uchicago). FA was available via the portal within 10 days or so, although some might have gotten their packages earlier than that.

Ah OK thank you, is my FAFSA and financial aid form due with my Early Decision II application?

  1. U Chicago admissions cares about rankings, rankings factor in admitted/applied students, that ratio is heavily influenced by yield, and ED signals commitment to attend. 2. There are way more deferrals from early rounds than rejections. Ergo, ED2 is a better choice than RD.

@karl447 - here is the relevant link. Deadline is Jan 15 for EDII and Feb. 15 for RD. In addition to FAFSA and the UChicago financial aid form they will need signed copies of your parent’s 2016 tax returns (and schedules) as well as W2’s.

https://collegeadmissions.uchicago.edu/costs/apply-for-aid

You may find this post from last year regarding the admissions ratings process helpful, there are three main rating variables.

1-5 : Academics
A-E : Personality - Extra Curricular, Essay responses, etc.
XYZ : UChicago fit - engagement

Highest rating is 1AX
Lowest rating is 5EZ

Your best chance, based on a small subset of data from last year, shows EDII will increase your odds.

Bet of luck to you and your decision. My son loves it there.

@fbsdreams can you expand on what goes into the calc for the academic portion? I’m especially curious because my son was just admitted ED1 and based on the GPAs that other people have posted here, I wouldn’t have guessed he’d be a “1”, even though he’d be an A, X for the other variables. Or maybe it’s not correct to assume that an applicant would have to be a 1AX to be admitted?

@milee30 unfortunately no. As it is a wholistic review, there are surely other factors at play, but these were shared to me as the main drivers.

For those that have already submitted applications, Engagement is the only factor that you can impact at this point. Reach out to your admission counselors.

What is engagement?